The Hoover Institution has published A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World by Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz and Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow James Timbie.
A Hinge of History is based on research conducted under the auspices of the Hoover Institution’s project on Governance in an Emerging New World, in which Shultz and Timbie convened a diverse group of practitioners and experts to write essays and participate in discussions at Hoover on the revolutionary changes that are taking place across the world and posing significant challenges to existing institutions.
Changing demographics, rapidly advancing technology, and the erosion of the security and economic commons built after World War II are transforming our world. “We in the United States are facing another inflection point—much like the one Acheson and Marshall and Truman did in the 1940s, even if they didn’t know it at the time. This is a hinge of history,” they write.
Shultz and Timbie explain that the biggest global changes are shifting global demographics and rapid advancements in both civilian and military technologies. In most developed countries, for example, falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy lead to shrinking work forces to support aging societies. Meanwhile, young and growing countries in Asia and Africa face economic and climate challenges. The authors examine the interplay between shifting demographics, migration, advancing technologies, and warming climate, all trends that are buffeting societies worldwide.
Shultz and Timbie examine advancing technologies such as artificial intelligence and 3D printing, which improve productivity and allow goods to be produced near where they will be used but also disrupt traditional workplaces and pose new challenges for governance.
The authors also assess that such changes are resulting in the diffusion of military power and making more accessible—to smaller states and even individuals—low-cost and highly effective weaponry once reserved for major countries. Our security will depend on our ability to exploit the military potential of new technologies while meeting the challenge of these capabilities in the hands of others, including nonstate actors.
Shultz and Timbie believe that the United States is well positioned to face these challenges—to capture the benefits and mitigate the problems. They cite the need to improve American K–12 education as critical to ensuring that future generations can adapt to revolutionary technological changes.
They also advocate for strengthening the domestic economy through market-based policies and solving global challenges, including infectious diseases, migration, disinformation, and threats to democracy, through international cooperation and US leadership.
“The changes we can now see across the world—looking at the shape of its populations, its technologies, or the climate—aren’t just affecting one person. They affect everybody. Everyone has a stake, so let’s see if we can do something about them that is constructive,” write Shultz and Timbie.
A Hinge of History is available in hardcover and e-book formats. Click here to purchase.
About the Authors
George Pratt Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He has had a distinguished career in government, academia, and the world of business. He is one of two individuals who have held four different federal cabinet posts; he has taught at three of this country’s great universities; and for eight years he was president of a major engineering and construction company. He attended Princeton University, graduating with a BA in economics, whereupon he enlisted in the US Marine Corps, serving in the Pacific from 1942 through 1945. He later earned a PhD in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and served on President Eisenhower’s Council of Economic Advisers. Shultz was dean of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business from 1962 to 1969, before returning to Washington to serve as secretary of labor, then as director of the Office of Management and Budget and as secretary of the Treasury, in the cabinet of President Nixon. Shultz was sworn in July 16, 1982, as the sixtieth US secretary of state under President Reagan and served until January 20, 1989. In 1989, Shultz was awarded the Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor. Among recent publications, he was editor of Blueprint for America (2016), author of Thinking about the Future (2019), and with John B. Taylor coauthor of Choose Economic Freedom (2020).
James Timbie is an Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution and, along with George P. Shultz, co-convener of the Governance in an Emerging New World project. As a senior adviser in the State Department from 1983 to 2016, Timbie played a central role in the negotiation of the INF and START nuclear arms–reduction agreements, the purchase from Russia of enriched uranium extracted from dismantled nuclear weapons for use as fuel to produce electricity in the United States, and the establishment of an international enriched uranium fuel bank. More recently, he was the lead US expert in the negotiation of the nuclear agreement with Iran. He retired from the State Department in 2016. In 2018 he coedited Beyond Disruption: Technology’s Challenge to Governance with George P. Shultz and Jim Hoagland. A Princeton graduate, he has a PhD in physics from Stanford University and from 1971 to 1983 was a scientist at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.
Acclaim for A Hinge of History
“One of our great statesmen leads an exploration of the most important issues that our nation faces. This is a rich menu for our future.”
—Joseph S. Nye Jr., Harvard University, author of Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump
“Improving how our government works will restore confidence in our institutions during this critical time in our history. Secretary Shultz has once again made an important civic contribution.”
—Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
“The Governance in an Emerging New World project is vital to our time. We need these sorts of constructive debates to respond thoughtfully in the midst of unprecedented technological, social, political, and economic change.”
—Ralph D. Semmel, director of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
“In a world awash in change, governing effectively demands more breadth and depth of understanding than we’ve achieved historically. This clear-eyed, smartly presented study enables a unique grasp of what is at stake, without myth or delusion, and provides the intellectual tools for sorting out the path ahead.”
—James Mattis, general, US Marines (ret.) and 26th secretary of defense
“A strategic analysis of the disparate and sometimes conflicting factors shaping the future that should inform policy makers and students for thinking beyond narrow disciplinary silos. It bridges the sometimes perilous knife-edge of science, technology, and security in ways few other volumes have.”
—Margaret Kosal, professor of international affairs, Georgia Tech
“An amazing tour de force through the most challenging governance issues of our times. Its analytical depth and the breadth of its thematic and geographical scope make it essential reading for policy makers and observers around the globe.”
—Jens Suedekum, professor of international economics, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics
“The world grapples with a pandemic, demographic shifts have remade entire regions, and authoritarianism has surged. Amid this crisis, this volume reminds us that restoring global leadership requires two things: reflection and collaboration. Global security, human rights, and the spirit of democracy all demand it.”
—H. E. Hicham Alaoui, director of the Hicham Alaoui Foundation for Social Science Research on Northern Africa and the Middle East
“Timely and important ideas for tackling our toughest global challenges. A Hinge of History is a valuable resource for leaders and citizens who recognize that facts, not ideology, must shape our conclusions and our path forward.”
—Sam Nunn, former US senator and chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, cochair of the Nuclear Threat Initiative
“Few in our nation’s history have brought to public service the breadth of talent and expertise that George P. Shultz has. Here, he and Jim Timbie share the results gained in their ambitious project to explore how changing demographics, technology, education, and the information revolution will shape the world ahead.”
—Karen Tumulty, Washington Post
“Governance everywhere is made more difficult by disruptive forces. Existing institutions and their leaders are struggling to know how best to act and adjust. Shultz shows how careful study and leadership can once again address today’s unfolding ‘emerging new world’ problems.”
—Van Ton-Quinlivan, CEO, Futuro Health, and former executive vice chancellor, California Community Colleges
“A dangerous consequence of the current pandemic is that it is fostering isolationism among nations at a time when international cooperation is needed the most: an effective global governance is one of the keys for a prompt recovery.”
—Pedro Aspe, former treasurer of the republic, Mexico
“A Hinge of History can serve as a blueprint for the next administration in Washington to begin the process of restoring American leadership with a renewed sense of purpose to tackle the biggest issues in global and human development.”
—James Hollifield, professor of political science and director of the Tower Center, Southern Methodist University
For coverage opportunities, contact Jeffrey Marschner, 202-760-3187, jmarsch@stanford.edu.
