Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)
Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).
The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.
The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans.
Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor's performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger's popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry 62-38.
There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14).
The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.
This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.
Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.
Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research, is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.
