In 2024, Hoover Institution scholars explored a broad scope of national and global economic challenges and concerns, including persistent inflation, the US presidential candidates’ economic policies, large shifts in remote work, tax policy, corporate governance, the future of monetary policy, and federal budget struggles with chronic deficits. Below are highlights of the key insights shared by Hoover scholars, offering a comprehensive overview of their contributions to the year’s economic discourse.
Inflation Trends and Policy Responses
Inflation remained a dominant concern in 2024, with Hoover scholars analyzing its causes and proposing solutions.
On May 2–3, the Hoover Institution hosted its annual Monetary Policy Conference, where scholars discussed continued challenges in curbing inflation while ensuring stable economic growth, new forms of global payment systems, and financial regulations.
Throughout the conference, experts added new insights to understand the economic conditions and causes of inflation in 2021‒22 and subsequent disinflation. In one session, Senior Fellow Steven J. Davis asserted that the rise of work-from-home arrangements could be seen as a factor causing inflation to decline. He presented research that suggests some firms offered remote and hybrid working options as a way of tempering wage demands from their workers.
Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track
In May 2023, the world’s top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy “back on track,” the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight.
October 13–14, The Hoover Institution celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the Shadow Open Market Committee, an independent group of economists that tracks the decisions of the Fed and aims to influence monetary policy, advocating a rules-based approach, as well as central bank transparency and accountability. Several current and former Hoover scholars, including Michael D. Bordo, Charles I. Plosser, Mickey D. Levy, and Andrew T. Levin, are members of the Shadow Open Market Committee.
The two-day conference featured remarks from economists and central bankers from throughout the world, including a keynote address from Christopher Waller, a prominent member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
On August 15, in the midst of the presidential campaign, Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane critiqued Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’s arguments that price gouging in food, medicine, and other goods are to blame for inflation, as well as her proposal to set price controls using the tools of the regulatory state. He demonstrated the long history of such policies, including a plan implemented by the fourth-century Roman emperor Diocletian.
In early December, Bordo and Levy penned an op-ed arguing that the American economy is still inflated, illustrating persistently steep prices across the average consumer’s basket of goods well after the COVID-era’s low interest rates and fiscal stimuli. They urged president-elect Trump to take a cautious approach on tariffs, spending, taxes, regulations, and immigration.
In an essay published following the November presidential election, Research Fellow Jennifer Burns explained the power of inflation in destroying a political establishment. It did so in the 1970s, she maintained, leading to neoliberal policies focused on free markets, free trade, and globalization.
Trump’s reelection, Burns argued, marks a repudiation of the neoliberal consensus, ignoring neoliberalism’s signal achievement of maintaining a level of economic stability that has kept our nation’s fractious democracy from falling apart.
Video | Podcast
Gettin’ Grumpy with It: John Cochrane on the Fed, Tariffs, and Why Dogs Rule
What happens when the stars align for a macroeconomist — publishing a lengthy tome on monetary policy just as inflation runs rampant?
Article
How Kamala Harris Sees the Economy
Her proposals would lead to slower growth, more inflation, and no relief from the debt crisis.
Event
A 50-Year Retrospective On The Shadow Open Market Committee And Its Role In Monetary Policy
The Hoover Institution hosted A 50-Year Retrospective On The Shadow Open Market Committee And Its Role In Monetary Policy on Sunday, October 13, 2024 through Monday, October 14, 2024.
Article
Inflation vs. Prices
Did “supply shocks” or “relative demand shocks” cause the recent inflation? Will tariffs raise inflation? Will deregulation and AI, by lowering costs, lower inflation? No.
Article
The Economy Is Still Inflated
Biden-era high prices persist even as the Fed slows the rate of increase. Trump should take note.
Article
How Inflation Ended Neoliberalism—and Re-Elected Trump
In the 1970s, skyrocketing prices spurred free-market reforms that promoted economic stability. In the 2020s, they fueled Trump’s comeback.
US Labor Trends and the Future of Work
In a June op-ed, Steven Davis—citing his research on effect of large shifts in remote work on curbing inflation—explained how the COVID-initiated phenomenon moderated wage growth in two ways: First, employers indicate in his June 2022 surveys that in the prior twelve months they were offering the option of remote or hybrid work to make roles more attractive to employees without increasing compensation. Second, remote work allowed firms to recruit suitable employees in lower-cost regions, compared to where they were based.
The broad implications of the shift to remote work were the topic of a recent Hoover conference organized by Davis and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in October. Throughout the three days, scholars presented papers on how much employees value the opportunity to work remotely, the costs and benefits of remote work for firms, and what is driving some firms to institute mandatory return-to-office mandates (RTOs). Other papers explored the impact of remote work on the commercial real estate and finance sectors and disruptions to the labor market caused by the appeal of remote and hybrid work.
The implications of large shifts to remote work are a perennial issue discussed in Davis’s Hoover-based podcast, Economics, Applied. On one such episode of the show, Davis spoke with his frequent collaborator Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, sharing new insights on remote work. They discussed RTOs imposed by some companies on their workers and the effects of such policies on organizational performance. They also talked about long-distance CEOs and why companies hire them, and how remote work facilitated a boom in business start-ups, recent unemployment gains among people with disabilities, and the high value of flexible working arrangements for parents.
In a December conversation hosted at Hoover on the topic of emerging technology and the economy, Mary Daly, San Francisco Federal Reserve president and CEO, said she is optimistic about the integration of AI in firms, particularly manufacturers, underscoring that they haven’t displaced workers but instead have made them more productive.
Video | Podcast
New Insights On Remote Work
Nick Bloom joins Steven Davis to discuss Return-to-Office mandates (RTOs), Amazon’s RTO, long-distance CEOs, the business start-up boom, employment among people with disabilities, the “child penalty” for working women, burglary, golf, and more.
Article
Working at Home Helped Whip Inflation
It boosted productivity and restrained wage growth. But now the Fed has to finish the job.
News
Hoover Cosponsors Gathering of Top Scholars Exploring Implications of Remote Work
Remote work is not going away any time soon, with significant implications for the productivity and social dynamics of the workplace as well as large swaths of the global economy.
Event
Emerging Technology And The Economy
The Hoover Institution held a conversation with President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary C. Daly and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow, John H. Cochrane on Emerging Technology and the Economy on Friday, December 6th at 10:00 a.m. in the Shultz Auditorium, George P. Shultz Building.
Podcast
How Flexible Jobs Can Help Women: A Conversation With Suhani Jalota
Can flexible jobs performed on smartphones draw women into the labor force in countries like India? Join Steve for a conversation with Suhani Jalota to find out.
Congressional Testimony
Charles Blahous: Social Security Subcommittee Hearing On The Windfall Elimination Provision And Government Pension Offset
Hoover Institution fellow Charles Blahous testifies in front of the Social Security Subcommittee Hearing on the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset.
Addressing Chronic Debt and Deficits
Citing his recently published research, Senior Fellow John F. Cogan wrote in a November op-ed that since the 1950s, the cause of chronic budget deficits in the United States is the US government’s failure to raise tax revenues required to finance its spending on state and local activities. He argues that the federal government needs to end this practice and instead focus on efforts for which it was created and is principally responsible, such as national defense.
In an October article at his Substack, Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh argued that the “federal government is playing with fire with its debt and deficits.” He explained that although the dollar remains the world reserve currency and Treasury bonds are still considered a secure investment, even the United States is not immune to fiscal unsustainability, bond market volatility, and, in turn, inflation risks.
In a November Substack, Rauh and co-author Greg Kearney wrote that supply-side deregulation could be the answer to the perilous financial position the US government finds itself in, with interest payments on accumulated debt costing taxpayers more than the entire defense budget. Rauh and Kearney wrote that deregulation of energy exploration and housing, as well as tax and spending cuts, would help exert downward pressure on prices in the near term, allowing the Fed to keep interest rates low and reducing interest payments in the federal budget.
Article
Got Debt? Try Some Fiscal Federalism
Musk and Ramaswamy can end Washington’s habit of paying for everything from bike paths to bus stops.
Video
Federal Entitlement Programs and the Fiscal Challenge
Federal entitlement program spending has ballooned over the past 60 years and is the main driver behind the growth in size of the US federal government and federal debt and deficits. This unsustainable fiscal path leads to a dead end of crushing tax increases, spiraling interest costs, glacially slow economic growth, and benefit restrictions.
Article
Playing with Fire: The Interest Coverage of US Federal Government Revenues
Net interest payments are projected to eat over 20% of federal revenues in 2025, unprecedented for the US in modern history. The future could be much worse.
Article
Can Trump’s GOP Defuse America’s Debt Crisis With Supply Side Economics?
Supply-side deregulation can exert near-term downward pressure on prices, buying time and helping the Fed keep interest rates low
Article
Where the Candidates Stand on Regulation
The US regulatory burden—nearly $2 trillion—demands close scrutiny of campaigners’ backgrounds and promises.
Article
Can Trump Cut $2 Trillion From the Federal Budget?
Hoover Institution fellows Tom Church and Danny Heil are trying to figure out if Elon can identify $2 trillion to cut from the federal budget plus answering listener feedback about cutting foreign aid and fixing government bureaucracies.
Insights on Financial Regulation
On February 15–16, the Hoover Institution’s Working Group on Financial Regulation held its inaugural conference on the Stanford campus. Esteemed scholars and policymakers from the US Federal Reserve system and the European Central Bank engaged in robust, in-depth discussions about the effects of bank regulations on financial systems and the economy. The conference papers, while diverse, collectively underscored critical concerns regarding the current bank regulatory landscape.
Codirectors Stephen Haber and Ross Levine articulate a clear vision for the working group: to probe the most pressing financial regulatory issues and disseminate insights that resonate with researchers, decision makers, and the public.
In June, seniors fellows John Cochrane and Amit Seru published research about how government bailouts continue to be an instrument of regulatory policy, describing the various ways taxpayers bailed out market participants in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The previous month, the two economists had written an op-ed describing this challenge, explaining that the promise of post-2008 bank regulation has not been realized and that banks can still take enormous risks knowing that the US Fed and Treasury will swoop in to save them if they face peril.
In a January op-ed for The Financial Times, Senior Fellow Darrell Duffie wrote that the Security and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule changes could have potential adverse implications for Treasury market liquidity. According to Duffie, the SEC plans to classify any firm that buys or sells US Treasuries as a dealer, subject to all the associated capital, reporting, and other requirements. Duffie argued this lock-up could exacerbate episodes of market disruption and deteriorate liquidity in US Treasury markets.
Events
Inaugural Conference of the Working Group on Financial Regulation
The Hoover Institution at Stanford University hosted the Inaugural Conference of the Working Group on Financial Regulation on February 15–16, 2024.
Article
Ending Bailouts, At Last
In 2008, we had a financial crisis. Our government responded once again with bailouts. Bailouts keep existing business going, and most of all protect creditors from losses.
Article
Preventing Bailouts Is Simple, but It Isn’t Easy
The Fed could simply stop blocking run-proof banks from emerging. But that would take political will.
Article
SEC should reconsider proposed rules on capital lock-ups
Mooted changes could have a negative impact on how the US Treasuries market functions.
Article
Flawed Fed encouraging excessive risk taking
The increasing willingness on the part of regulators such as the Federal Reserve to bail out investors at times of crises is reducing the competitive environment in which banks and financial institutions operate, the Fiduciary investors Symposium at Stanford University has heard.
Video
From Balance Sheets To Bank Failures: The Reality Of Banking Stability
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank served as a wake-up call for other financial institutions, regulators, and investors, highlighting the need for more robust risk management practices, more transparency, and greater need to proactively address vulnerabilities in the financial system.
Pathways to Economic Prosperity
In a March op-ed, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Kevin Warsh wrote that the United States cannot underwrite a new framework for global security without also getting its fiscal house in order. He says that America’s adversaries observe its domestic struggles with inflation, deficits, and other economic woes and interpret them as weakness.
Warsh discussed the piece on April 18 at the launch of Ideas Uncorked, a new speaker series based in Hoover’s Washington, DC, offices that combines a happy hour and a policy talk by a leading Hoover Institution scholar, complete with California wines.
Speakers this year have included other notable scholars, such as Lanhee J. Chen on healthcare policy in the new Trump administration and the next Congress (December 4).
On May 29, the Hoover Institution and Stanford’s Graduate School of Business Classical Liberalism Initiative welcomed Argentine president Javier Milei to campus. Milei gave a keynote address in which he discussed intellectual giants (including Milton Friedman) who shaped his worldview, and blamed state intervention for strangling a nation’s ability to generate economic growth.
Turning to his own country’s economic affairs, Milei said that his government is working to tame inflation and get public spending under control, and he criticized statists who oppose his efforts in Argentina. “State intervention is always bad, because it’s based on coercion, on force, and nothing based on coercion can be good,” he asserted.
News
Hoover Institution Launches ‘Ideas Uncorked’ Series in Washington, DC, with Talk by Kevin Warsh
The Hoover Institution launched its new Ideas Uncorked series on April 18 with a talk in Washington by Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow Kevin Warsh entitled “Uncle Sam’s Guide to Peace and Prosperity.”
Article
Uncle Sam’s Guide to Peace and Prosperity
American economic and military might can underwrite a new economic and security commons.
News
“The Market Is Ourselves”: Argentine President Milei Explains His Approach to Freedom at Hoover
Stop viewing every inconvenience discovered in the economy as a market failure needing government intervention, Argentine president Javier Milei told a crowd at the Hoover Institution on Wednesday, May 29.
Podcast
Markets for the People
Steven Davis and Glenn Hubbard critique industrial policy as practiced under Presidents Trump and Biden and discuss Hubbard’s vision of how to harness "Markets for the People" to advance prosperity and liberty for all Americans.
Article
Industrial Policy’s Deceptive New Clothes
If the new "industrial strategy" is offering ideas for better public governance, it is useful. But it becomes positively dangerous when it turns to the private sector, where state interventions inevitably undermine competition, disrupt price signals, and dampen the motivation to innovate.
Podcast
AI, Tech, Industrial Policy and Baby Equities with Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital Founder and CEO)
Jon Hartley and Brad Gerstner discuss Brad’s career, free markets, investing in technology, industrial policy, the CHIPS and Science Act, and baby equity investment accounts.
Issues of Corporate Governance
In October, Hoover’s Corporate Governance Working Group, together with the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the university’s Rock Center for Corporate Governance, published the 2024 Survey of Investors, Retirement Savings, and ESG. The study found that for the second straight year, support for environmental, social, and governance principles (ESG) in investing is down among a wide swath of investors, including institutional investors, shareholders, and retail investors, such as those investing in 401(k)s and other retirement accounts. There is a particular decline in ESG support among young investors, who may be the ones most impacted by higher inflation and job market softness and thus less willing to make sacrifices in their portfolio for ESG claims.
The working group, chaired by Stephen Haber, Amit Seru, and Distinguished Visiting Fellow David Larcker, hosted its first conference on May 30–31, addressing questions relating to the idea of shareholder primacy and how it should evolve, if at all.
Conference papers explored whether markets were ignoring important effects outside their immediate scope; whether big shareholders influenced a company’s political involvement and, consequently, its governance; and whether companies should consider actions beyond just making profits for shareholders, such as lowering prices to benefit consumers even if it reduces profits.
Article
2024 Survey Of Investors, Retirement Savings, And ESG
Sentiment toward ESG continues to sour, with investors in a new survey expressing less concern for environmental and social issues than one year ago. A slight increase in concern among older investors is not enough to offset a steep drop among young investors, who are increasingly opposed to the idea of fund managers using their investment dollars to advocate for social causes.
Article
2024 Institutional Investor Survey On Sustainability
A significant majority of large investors polled in a new survey say they consider environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns when determining which firms to invest in, but basic governance factors far outweigh environmental and social concerns in their calculus.
News
Scholars Explore Essential Questions about Firms at Inaugural Corporate Governance Working Group Conference
Scholars from across America discussed fundamental questions about the role and function of the corporation at the inaugural Corporate Governance Working Group Conference at Hoover on May 30–31.
Article
How to Make Climate Progress: Tie It to CEO Pay
More company boards are doing just that. But the key is to do it right.
Article
Solar Flare Up: Systemic Organizational Risk in the Residential Solar Industry
The concept of systemic organizational risk is critically important in corporate governance. A systemic risk is one in which the system itself — through its incentives, structure, and culture — encourages or fails to detect behavior contrary to what is intended by those who developed or manage the system.
Energy and Climate Policy and Sustainability
In April, Senior Fellows Terry Anderson and Dominic Parker, economists both, hosted the conference Markets vs. Mandates, seeking to foster discussion and debate on how market-based and regulatory frameworks can best govern responses to environmental concerns. The conference explored a wide spectrum of topics, including whether public companies should be mandated to disclose their annual carbon emissions and other environment-relevant data; how poor access to wildfire data is roiling the California home insurance market; the unintended consequences of environmental mandates; and the true scale of the effort needed to achieve a global energy transition.
The keynote address was given by New York Times columnist Bret Stephens, who reflected on the changing nature of the public data surrounding climate change—specifically how media coverage, commentary, and even academic literature about the issue appears to have acquired subjective, dogmatic, and even antidemocratic tendencies.
In a May op-ed, Anderson explored today’s emphasis on energy transitions, underscoring that consumers make energy transitions in their daily lives only when the economics make sense. Citing an example from the early twentieth century, he explained that farmers moved from the horse-drawn plow to the internal combustion engine–fueled tractor only when using the tractor started to cost significantly less to operate per acre.
The global energy transition was the topic of an October talk of the Big Ideas in Sustainability speaker series presented by Hoover and the Doerr School of Sustainability. The event featued World Bank president Ajay Banga, Hoover Institution director Condoleezza Rice, and senior fellows Peter Blair Henry and Arun Majumdar, the latter also dean of the Doerr School. In a wide-ranging conversation, Banga explained that a primary effort of the World Bank is to accelerate economic development programs for client countries while also grappling the challenge of climate change.
Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy took on the debate between balancing climate goals with energy needs in a series of essays. Authors included Senior Fellow Steven Koonin on the factual context for climate and energy policy; Visiting Fellow Bjorn Lomborg on addressing climate change smartly; and Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Daniel Yergin on how the climate issue is changing the national security agenda, despite the United States’ having achieved energy independence.
Event
Markets Vs. Mandates: Promoting Environmental Quality And Economic Prosperity
On April 8, 2024, the Hoover Institution hosted its second annual one-day conference on Markets vs. Mandates: Promoting Environmental Quality and Economic Prosperity. Building on Hoover’s founding principles of generating ideas that define healthy and free societies, the program will evaluate when, if, and how institutions and policies can improve environmental quality while also promoting economic prosperity and individual freedom.
News
Ajay Banga Discusses Prosperity, Conflict, And Climate
The World Bank president discussed why he sees efforts to end poverty and spread prosperity as inseparable from issues related to climate change, conflict, pandemics, and food security, in a conversation with leaders from the Hoover Institution and the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
Video
Doing “The Best Things First,” with Bjorn Lomborg
Offering cost-benefit analyses of many of the top-line policies of industrial and developing nations, Dr. Lomborg discusses which policies we should prioritize and which we should pay less attention to or end. Lomborg also asserts the benefits of economic growth and says that by spending on technology, we can solve all kinds of big problems, including hunger.
Articles
The Factual Context For Climate And Energy Policy
Climate and energy policies must balance the risks and benefits of a changing climate against growing demand for reliable, affordable, and clean energy. To strike that balance, policymakers must consider society’s values and priorities, its tolerance for risk, equities among generations and geographies, and efficacies, costs, and collateral impacts.
Article
The Right Way for Trump to Ditch the Paris Agreement
Trump plans to withdraw from it. In doing so, he can show the world a better way to reduce emissions.
Article
Climate Change Is Not An Apocalyptic Threat— Let’s Address It Smartly
Among people in rich countries, 60 percent believe unmitigated climate change will lead to the end of humanity. This is highly misleading: climate change is a problem, but not the end of the world. Strong climate policies have much greater costs than benefits and are especially onerous for poorer nations.
Article
From horsepower to electric vehicles, the market always beats mandates
Anyone familiar with Western agricultural history knows today’s emphasis on energy transitions is nothing new.
Healthcare Policy
On October 8, the Hoover Institution hosted a conference in its Washington, DC, office, focusing on critical healthcare reform issues. The event brought together leading experts from academia and think tanks, along with former government officials, to discuss pressing challenges and potential solutions in the US healthcare system.
In his opening remarks, Senior Fellow Dr. Scott Atlas set the stage by emphasizing the need for healthcare reform in the United States. He highlighted the growing challenges of increasing costs due to the expanded role of government, an aging population, and a substandard government Medicaid program that fails the poor, but he stressed that care in the United States is vastly superior to that provided by more centralized systems in other countries.
In December, Lanhee Chen and policy fellows Tom Church and Daniel Heil produced a new report, “An Introduction to 2025 and Beyond: Looming Health Policy Challenges,” introducing a series of healthcare essays that will follow in early 2025. The authors argue that the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, and the rising cost of maintaining Medicare are all challenges requiring attention soon. They will offer policymakers a host of useful reforms they can make in the healthcare space in the coming year.
Essay
An Introduction to 2025 and Beyond: Looming Health Policy Challenges
The US healthcare system faces persistent challenges of high costs and limited access. However, new opportunities for reform emerge in 2025 as key policies sunset, including Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, and temporary telehealth waivers.
Video
Putting Patients First: The Case For Individual Health Accounts
Third party payers, such as employers and the government, negotiate healthcare costs behind the scenes, cutting out individual patients from the process and contributing to rising healthcare premiums. Individual Health Accounts would allow patients to take ownership of their healthcare, lower healthcare costs, and help millions of uninsured afford health coverage.
News
Hoover Institution Hosts Experts to Discuss Key Healthcare Priorities for the New Administration
The Hoover Institution recently hosted a conference in its Washington, DC, office titled Key Priorities for the New Administration, focusing on critical healthcare reform issues.
Article
What Would a Trump Administration 2.0 Mean for Health Care Policy?
How former President Donald Trump would approach health policy if elected to a second term is of great interest to many voters, but specific predictions about the initiatives he would pursue may be more challenging given that neither he nor his campaign have revealed many detailed plans.
Video
Health Policy After Covid
Senior Hoover Fellow, Scott Atlas, lays out how well-intentioned policies, such as Covid-related lockdowns and single-payer healthcare systems often have catastrophic unintended consequences…
Article
COVID Lessons Learned: A Retrospective After Four Years
This report reviews the major policy errors and lessons learned during the COVID pandemic from a balanced perspective that includes health, economic, educational, and civil liberty considerations. It outlines ten key lessons that must be learned to avoid mistaken policy responses to future pandemics and other crises.
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