In 2024, Hoover Institution scholars explored a broad scope of national and global economic challenges and concerns, including persistent inflation, the US presidential candidates’ economic policies, large shifts in remote work, tax policy, corporate governance, the future of monetary policy, and federal budget struggles with chronic deficits. Below are highlights of the key insights shared by Hoover scholars, offering a comprehensive overview of their contributions to the year’s economic discourse.

Inflation Trends and Policy Responses

Inflation remained a dominant concern in 2024, with Hoover scholars analyzing its causes and proposing solutions.

On May 2–3, the Hoover Institution hosted its annual Monetary Policy Conference, where scholars discussed continued challenges in curbing inflation while ensuring stable economic growth, new forms of global payment systems, and financial regulations.

Throughout the conference, experts added new insights to understand the economic conditions and causes of inflation in 2021‒22 and subsequent disinflation. In one session, Senior Fellow Steven J. Davis asserted that the rise of work-from-home arrangements could be seen as a factor causing inflation to decline. He presented research that suggests some firms offered remote and hybrid working options as a way of tempering wage demands from their workers.

 

Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

In May 2023, the world’s top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy “back on track,” the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight.

Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

 

October 13–14, The Hoover Institution celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the Shadow Open Market Committee, an independent group of economists that tracks the decisions of the Fed and aims to influence monetary policy, advocating a rules-based approach, as well as central bank transparency and accountability. Several current and former Hoover scholars, including Michael D. BordoCharles I. Plosser, Mickey D. Levy, and Andrew T. Levin, are members of the Shadow Open Market Committee.

The two-day conference featured remarks from economists and central bankers from throughout the world, including a keynote address from Christopher Waller, a prominent member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

On August 15, in the midst of the presidential campaign, Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane critiqued Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’s arguments that price gouging in food, medicine, and other goods are to blame for inflation, as well as her proposal to set price controls using the tools of the regulatory state. He demonstrated the long history of such policies, including a plan implemented by the fourth-century Roman emperor Diocletian.

In early December, Bordo and Levy penned an op-ed arguing that the American economy is still inflated, illustrating persistently steep prices across the average consumer’s basket of goods well after the COVID-era’s low interest rates and fiscal stimuli. They urged president-elect Trump to take a cautious approach on tariffs, spending, taxes, regulations, and immigration.

In an essay published following the November presidential election, Research Fellow Jennifer Burns explained the power of inflation in destroying a political establishment. It did so in the 1970s, she maintained, leading to neoliberal policies focused on free markets, free trade, and globalization.

Trump’s reelection, Burns argued, marks a repudiation of the neoliberal consensus, ignoring neoliberalism’s signal achievement of maintaining a level of economic stability that has kept our nation’s fractious democracy from falling apart.

US Labor Trends and the Future of Work

In a June op-ed, Steven Davis—citing his research on effect of large shifts in remote work on curbing inflation—explained how the COVID-initiated phenomenon moderated wage growth in two ways: First, employers indicate in his June 2022 surveys that in the prior twelve months they were offering the option of remote or hybrid work to make roles more attractive to employees without increasing compensation. Second, remote work allowed firms to recruit suitable employees in lower-cost regions, compared to where they were based.

The broad implications of the shift to remote work were the topic of a recent Hoover conference organized by Davis and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in October. Throughout the three days, scholars presented papers on how much employees value the opportunity to work remotely, the costs and benefits of remote work for firms, and what is driving some firms to institute mandatory return-to-office mandates (RTOs). Other papers explored the impact of remote work on the commercial real estate and finance sectors and disruptions to the labor market caused by the appeal of remote and hybrid work.

The implications of large shifts to remote work are a perennial issue discussed in Davis’s Hoover-based podcast, Economics, Applied. On one such episode of the show, Davis spoke with his frequent collaborator Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, sharing new insights on remote work. They discussed RTOs imposed by some companies on their workers and the effects of such policies on organizational performance. They also talked about long-distance CEOs and why companies hire them, and how remote work facilitated a boom in business start-ups, recent unemployment gains among people with disabilities, and the high value of flexible working arrangements for parents.

In a December conversation hosted at Hoover on the topic of emerging technology and the economy, Mary Daly, San Francisco Federal Reserve president and CEO, said she is optimistic about the integration of AI in firms, particularly manufacturers, underscoring that they haven’t displaced workers but instead have made them more productive.

Addressing Chronic Debt and Deficits

Citing his recently published research, Senior Fellow John F. Cogan wrote in a November op-ed that since the 1950s, the cause of chronic budget deficits in the United States is the US government’s failure to raise tax revenues required to finance its spending on state and local activities. He argues that the federal government needs to end this practice and instead focus on efforts for which it was created and is principally responsible, such as national defense.

In an October article at his Substack, Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh argued that the “federal government is playing with fire with its debt and deficits.” He explained that although the dollar remains the world reserve currency and Treasury bonds are still considered a secure investment, even the United States is not immune to fiscal unsustainability, bond market volatility, and, in turn, inflation risks.

In a November Substack, Rauh and co-author Greg Kearney wrote that supply-side deregulation could be the answer to the perilous financial position the US government finds itself in, with interest payments on accumulated debt costing taxpayers more than the entire defense budget. Rauh and Kearney wrote that deregulation of energy exploration and housing, as well as tax and spending cuts, would help exert downward pressure on prices in the near term, allowing the Fed to keep interest rates low and reducing interest payments in the federal budget.

Insights on Financial Regulation

On February 15–16, the Hoover Institution’s Working Group on Financial Regulation held its inaugural conference on the Stanford campus. Esteemed scholars and policymakers from the US Federal Reserve system and the European Central Bank engaged in robust, in-depth discussions about the effects of bank regulations on financial systems and the economy. The conference papers, while diverse, collectively underscored critical concerns regarding the current bank regulatory landscape.

Codirectors Stephen Haber and Ross Levine articulate a clear vision for the working group: to probe the most pressing financial regulatory issues and disseminate insights that resonate with researchers, decision makers, and the public.

In June, seniors fellows John Cochrane and Amit Seru published research about how government bailouts continue to be an instrument of regulatory policy, describing the various ways taxpayers bailed out market participants in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The previous month, the two economists had written an op-ed describing this challenge, explaining that the promise of post-2008 bank regulation has not been realized and that banks can still take enormous risks knowing that the US Fed and Treasury will swoop in to save them if they face peril.

In a January op-ed for The Financial Times, Senior Fellow Darrell Duffie wrote that the Security and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule changes could have potential adverse implications for Treasury market liquidity. According to Duffie, the SEC plans to classify any firm that buys or sells US Treasuries as a dealer, subject to all the associated capital, reporting, and other requirements. Duffie argued this lock-up could exacerbate episodes of market disruption and deteriorate liquidity in US Treasury markets.

Pathways to Economic Prosperity

In a March op-ed, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Kevin Warsh wrote that the United States cannot underwrite a new framework for global security without also getting its fiscal house in order. He says that America’s adversaries observe its domestic struggles with inflation, deficits, and other economic woes and interpret them as weakness.

Warsh discussed the piece on April 18 at the launch of Ideas Uncorked, a new speaker series based in Hoover’s Washington, DC, offices that combines a happy hour and a policy talk by a leading Hoover Institution scholar, complete with California wines.

Speakers this year have included other notable scholars, such as Lanhee J. Chen on healthcare policy in the new Trump administration and the next Congress (December 4).

On May 29, the Hoover Institution and Stanford’s Graduate School of Business Classical Liberalism Initiative welcomed Argentine president Javier Milei to campus. Milei gave a keynote address in which he discussed intellectual giants (including Milton Friedman) who shaped his worldview, and blamed state intervention for strangling a nation’s ability to generate economic growth.

Turning to his own country’s economic affairs, Milei said that his government is working to tame inflation and get public spending under control, and he criticized statists who oppose his efforts in Argentina. “State intervention is always bad, because it’s based on coercion, on force, and nothing based on coercion can be good,” he asserted.

Issues of Corporate Governance

In October, Hoover’s Corporate Governance Working Group, together with the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the university’s Rock Center for Corporate Governance, published the 2024 Survey of Investors, Retirement Savings, and ESG. The study found that for the second straight year, support for environmental, social, and governance principles (ESG) in investing is down among a wide swath of investors, including institutional investors, shareholders, and retail investors, such as those investing in 401(k)s and other retirement accounts. There is a particular decline in ESG support among young investors, who may be the ones most impacted by higher inflation and job market softness and thus less willing to make sacrifices in their portfolio for ESG claims.

The working group, chaired by Stephen Haber, Amit Seru, and Distinguished Visiting Fellow David Larcker, hosted its first conference on May 30–31, addressing questions relating to the idea of shareholder primacy and how it should evolve, if at all.

Conference papers explored whether markets were ignoring important effects outside their immediate scope; whether big shareholders influenced a company’s political involvement and, consequently, its governance; and whether companies should consider actions beyond just making profits for shareholders, such as lowering prices to benefit consumers even if it reduces profits.

Energy and Climate Policy and Sustainability

In April, Senior Fellows Terry Anderson and Dominic Parker, economists both, hosted the conference Markets vs. Mandates, seeking to foster discussion and debate on how market-based and regulatory frameworks can best govern responses to environmental concerns.  The conference explored a wide spectrum of topics, including whether public companies should be mandated to disclose their annual carbon emissions and other environment-relevant data; how poor access to wildfire data is roiling the California home insurance market; the unintended consequences of environmental mandates; and the true scale of the effort needed to achieve a global energy transition.

The keynote address was given by New York Times columnist Bret Stephens, who reflected on the changing nature of the public data surrounding climate change—specifically how media coverage, commentary, and even academic literature about the issue appears to have acquired subjective, dogmatic, and even antidemocratic tendencies.

In a May op-ed, Anderson explored today’s emphasis on energy transitions, underscoring that consumers make energy transitions in their daily lives only when the economics make sense. Citing an example from the early twentieth century, he explained that farmers moved from the horse-drawn plow to the internal combustion engine–fueled tractor only when using the tractor started to cost significantly less to operate per acre.

The global energy transition was the topic of an October talk of the Big Ideas in Sustainability speaker series presented by Hoover and the Doerr School of Sustainability. The event featued World Bank president Ajay Banga, Hoover Institution director Condoleezza Rice, and senior fellows Peter Blair Henry and Arun Majumdar, the latter also dean of the Doerr School. In a wide-ranging conversation, Banga explained that a primary effort of the World Bank is to accelerate economic development programs for client countries while also grappling the challenge of climate change.

Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy took on the debate between balancing climate goals with energy needs in a series of essays. Authors included Senior Fellow Steven Koonin on the factual context for climate and energy policy; Visiting Fellow Bjorn Lomborg on addressing climate change smartly; and Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Daniel Yergin on how the climate issue is changing the national security agenda, despite the United States’ having achieved energy independence.

Healthcare Policy

On October 8, the Hoover Institution hosted a conference in its Washington, DC, office, focusing on critical healthcare reform issues. The event brought together leading experts from academia and think tanks, along with former government officials, to discuss pressing challenges and potential solutions in the US healthcare system.

In his opening remarks, Senior Fellow Dr. Scott Atlas set the stage by emphasizing the need for healthcare reform in the United States. He highlighted the growing challenges of increasing costs due to the expanded role of government, an aging population, and a substandard government Medicaid program that fails the poor, but he stressed that care in the United States is vastly superior to that provided by more centralized systems in other countries.

In December, Lanhee Chen and policy fellows Tom Church and Daniel Heil produced a new report, “An Introduction to 2025 and Beyond: Looming Health Policy Challenges,” introducing a series of healthcare essays that will follow in early 2025. The authors argue that the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, and the rising cost of maintaining Medicare are all challenges requiring attention soon. They will offer policymakers a host of useful reforms they can make in the healthcare space in the coming year.

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