Determining America's Role in the World

Utilizing History to Inform National Security

The attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, marked a turning point in the history of US intelligence. In a December episode of Library & Archives Reflections video series, Hoover Senior Fellow Amy Zegart explains the crucial lessons learned in Washington in the wake of the surprise attack. Drawing on once top-secret communications in the papers of State Department official Stanley Hornbeck at Hoover’s Library & Archives, Zegart describes how the intelligence failures that led to Pearl Harbor inspired a fundamental restructuring of the US intelligence apparatus.

In an excerpt of The Boiling Moat reproduced exclusively in the Hoover Digest, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Matt Pottinger and Visiting Fellow Matthew Turpin argue against the widespread popular perception that great power wars are often “accidental” and the result of mere missteps, mistakes, and miscalculations by rival militaries. They claim instead, “Leaders start wars when they believe war will pay strategic dividends that couldn’t be obtained through peaceful means,” and suggest that miscalculations and accidents are more likely to serve as cover to commence long-planned military action than to genuinely cause conflict.

In November, Hoover Institution fellow Jacquelyn Schneider brought together Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster, Mai Elliott, and Mark Moyar to discuss why the conclusions of the Sigma war games, a series of politico-military war games run by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff during the 1960s that offered a chillingly accurate forecast of the Vietnam War's potential trajectory, went unheeded. “These games are such a huge historical puzzle,” Schneider, director of the Institution’s Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, said. “I work on how games influence foreign policy, and these have all the ingredients of a war game that really should have mattered but didn’t.”

Efforts to Address Current Security Challenges

This September, Hoover formally launched its participation in the Safeguarding the Entire Community of the US Research Ecosystem (SECURE) program, a $67 million initiative funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and authorized by the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Under the leadership of Distinguished Research Fellow Glenn Tiffert, Hoover is developing data, tools, and analytical products to enhance the research community’s capacity to prevent and respond to research security risks. “The Hoover Institution is honored to support SECURE’s efforts to enhance the resilience of our research ecosystem in a more challenging world,” Rice said.

National Security Visiting Fellow Nadia Schadlow writes at Foreign Affairs how the United States faces “a complex environment in which U.S. rivals are arming at a rapid pace and, in the case of Russia and Iran, are engaged in regional wars.” She stresses, “This is no longer just a competition; today’s conflicts could be a prelude to a wider war.” Schadlow argues that the United States must aim to achieve a position of military overmatch against great-power rivals, which will necessitate reforms within the national security bureaucracy. Schadlow suggests that the next president will “need to build up the country’s military capabilities, fortify the domestic industrial base and reduce foreign economic dependencies, and consolidate key political alliances, all in service of strengthening the United States’ hand in the face of mounting geopolitical risks.”

Promoting Peace Through Strength

At Foreign Affairs, Senior Fellow (and former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul) argues that the incoming Trump administration could end the war in Ukraine by convincing Kyiv to trade land for membership in the NATO alliance. McFaul stresses, “Only such a compromise will produce a permanent peace.” While acknowledging that the incoming commander in chief has previously expressed skepticism for increasing security commitments to Ukraine, he proposes, “Trump could explain to the American people that Ukraine’s membership in NATO would allow the United States to spend less on European defense and free up resources to contain China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region.” In the piece, McFaul also addresses some anticipated criticisms of his proposal, such as the claim that NATO expansion would prove unduly provocative to Putin's Russian Federation.

Major changes are required for America to fund and manage its military to address the pressing threats of the twenty-first century. In this short video from the Tennenbaum Program for Fact Based Policy, Mackenzie Eaglen focuses on streamlining defense budgeting and defense operations to maximize efficiency. Roger Zakheim takes a bigger view, arguing only major hikes in defense spending can deliver the capabilities to deter our adversaries. This video builds on the 2023 Hoover Institution Press publication, Defense Budgeting for a Safer World.

Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice joined Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss her article in Foreign Affairs. Rice explains how she views the current geopolitical state of affairs with Russia, China, Iran, and their proxies on the move. The former secretary of state reflects on the strategic errors made in integrating China into the global economy and raises concerns about the potential for future conflicts, particularly in Taiwan and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Rice emphasizes the need for American leadership via international institutions in a world threatened by authoritarian regimes, arguing that the US cannot afford to retreat from the world stage. Rice also discusses her article with the editor of Foreign Affairs on The Foreign Affairs Interview.

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