Hoover Institution (Stanford, CA) — With the United States currently experiencing a period of electoral instability, the Hoover Institution Press has released An Era of Unstable Majorities Continues, a new essay series by senior fellow Morris Fiorina, providing readers with the historical context to better understand the current political landscape.
An Era of Unstable Majorities serves as a continuation to Fiorina’s Unstable Majorities, which examined the 2016 election and confronted the commonly held view that American politics is hyperpolarized. This new series of essays runs through January 2025 when the new president takes office.
In the first essay published today, Fiorina explores how America got to its current period of electoral tumult, with the presidency, House, and Senate changing hands back and forth seemingly every few years in contrast with earlier periods in US history. Upcoming pre-election essays will discuss current levels of polarization in American politics and the notion that polarization is affectively based (harboring distrust or dislike of members of the opposing party).
Pre-election essays also explore lessons from the 2016 election, including whether the key to Donald Trump’s political support reflected economic anxieties or a slew of extreme and regressive cultural attitudes; the voting behavior of the “white working class;” and the significance of gun control as a contributing factor to Trump’s victory eight years ago. The pre-election essays are specifically intended to inform students and professionals in the fields of political science and political journalism.
These essays are rife with keen insights of trends in electoral politics. Key takeaways include:
- The United States currently is experiencing a historically unprecedented period of electoral instability.
- Party donors and activists are motivated relatively more by ideology and policies and less by material incentives like jobs than in earlier periods of American history.
- The Democratic Party and the Republican Party are each more internally homogeneous and their positions are further from each other than is usual in American history.
- When in office, either party attempts to impose policies more extreme than the electorate at large prefers. The resulting reaction produces new majorities.
In four essays to be released post-election, Fiorina will provide analyses on the outcomes and speculate about their consequences to a more general audience. Issues to be discussed will include the candidates and their stances on the central issues, how groups voted, and historical and comparative perspectives on the 2024 elections.
Morris P. Fiorina is a professor of political science at Stanford University and a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution. He has written or edited fourteen books, most recently Who Governs? Emergency Powers in the Time of COVID. An elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, Fiorina has received career achievement awards from two sections of the American Political Science Association.
For coverage opportunities, contact Jeffrey Marschner, 202-760-3187, jmarsch@stanford.edu.
