This edition of the Hoover Institution Briefing on Understanding the Effects of Technology on Economics and Governance looks at the future of the US semiconductor industry; safeguarding critical US research against illicit access; the future challenges of space development; how AI will impact the future of work; and how the information age seems to have created an advantage for offensive military campaigns in US Army doctrine.
FEATURED ANALYSIS
Experts, Diplomats, and Industry Reps Discuss US Semiconductor Future after CHIPS Act
As dollars from the CHIPS and Science Act flow to strengthen the US semiconductor industry, senior leaders from the US government, industry, academia, and international partners met at the Hoover Institution to discuss current opportunities and the field’s future at a forum hosted by the Stanford Emerging Technology Review on May 22.
Almost two years after the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act, foundry construction, research programs, and other related efforts to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing and technology are underway. Recently, independent analysts and industry groups have highlighted positive domestic successes stemming from the CHIPS Act, including leading-edge capacity. But against the backdrop of those positive developments and the fanfare of the CHIPS & Science Act awards, have they put US industry on a sustainable economic path? What impacts are US semiconductor policies having on diplomatic efforts to build secure supply chains with international partners? These were the key questions explored.
Discussions also centered around the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act by the Department of Commerce. Discussions involved the different programs supported by the CHIPS Act funding and how they would help grow both the output of the industry and its access to skilled workers. US government representatives described the strategy for CHIPS Act awards, highlighting their thesis that combining public and private capital together will result in a more effective return on the taxpayer dollar when compared with public funding alone.
SETR’s findings on semiconductors can be found here. Read more about the discussions here.
A Deeper Look into Developments in the Space Industry
In June, the Stanford Emerging Technology Review published a “deeper dive” into the issues surrounding developments in the space industry . The essay discusses new developments around satellite technology, including networks of smaller satellites that maneuver and arrange themselves in constant communication with one another. It also entertains the possibility that future satellites will require in-space maintenance networks, possibly enabled by 3D printing in space and other capabilities not currently used in space travel.
The report further discusses the increased threat of space debris on future space development, as well as geopolitical concerns in space. China and Russia are developing weapons for use in space, despite prevailing treaty language preventing this effort. Other nations are also growing their networks of satellites in earth’s orbit.
Watch a video about SETR’s space findings here.
National Science Foundation Research Security Center Taps Hoover Fellow to Provide Research Safety Advice
On July 24, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) announced a five-year, $67 million investment establishing Safeguarding the Entire Community in the US Research Ecosystem (SECURE) as mandated in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Research security is a concern because some foreign entities attempt to unethically—or even unlawfully—access and use US research.
As part of this initiative, Distinguished Research Fellow Glenn Tiffert will lead a team of Hoover geopolitical analysts, data engineers, programmers, and risk modelers who will apply leading-edge qualitative and data science methodologies to provide SECURE with expertise on sensitive research, threat types, and the evolving environment for international collaboration. Hoover will partner with nine other US institutions to constitute SECURE.
Learn more here.
HIGHLIGHTS
AI Not Expected to Cause Widespread Job Loss in Next Decade: Davis
Citing mentions of terms related to artificial intelligence (AI) in job advertisements and statistics, and overall regular use of generative AI applications, Senior Fellow Steven J. Davis suggests that use of AI will not lead to significant job losses in the US over the next 10 years. Writing for the Economic Innovation Group’s American Worker Project, Davis says there aren’t enough tasks that generative AI applications can fully automate today to replace an average white-collar worker. Davis also cites the research of other scholars in the field, who together find that “the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations is currently too small to be detectable.”
Read more about his findings here.
The Digital Cult of the Offensive and the US Military
Writing in the Journal of Strategic Studies, Hargrove Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider explains the rise of the digital cult of the offensive in the US military. The digital cult of the offensive is defined as a belief in one’s digital or cyber offensive power being so great that a military no longer evaluates its offensive doctrine or capabilities objectively.
Beyond the general rise of the information age in the late 20th century, she cites two specific examples that illustrate the rise of the digital cult of the offensive. First was the release of the 1981 edition of the US Army’s Field Manual 100-5, known as “AirLand Battle.” The second was the “AirSea Battle” concept that emerged around 2009. She writes that the cult of the offensive rose because after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US faced no real peer adversary. “The US could afford to be offensive because it needed to defend very little,” she writes.
Over the past 40 years, the US military began to acquire digital capabilities to augment its command-and-control capabilities and its firepower. Schneider writes about other factors that contributed to the rise of the digital cult of the offensive, such as US procurement of advanced weaponry and new information architecture, and then points out that US strategic thinking might be at a new critical juncture. Lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s campaign in Gaza will challenge US thinking about its future campaigns.
In a related discussion at the Hoover Institution, Schneider spoke about a field where US thinking has moved from the offensive to the defensive: cybersecurity.
You can watch that talk here.
Fellow Spotlight: Herbert Lin
Dr. Herb Lin is Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution and senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, both at Stanford University. His research interests relate broadly to policy-related dimensions of cybersecurity and cyberspace, and he is particularly interested in the use of offensive operations in cyberspace as instruments of national policy and in the security dimensions of information warfare and influence operations on national security. He is also the chief research scientist and editor of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review.
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