Hoover Institution (Washington, DC) – The Hoover Institution hosted the launch of The Hand Behind Unmanned: Origins of the US Autonomous Military Arsenal (Oxford University Press) on Wednesday, March 26 at its Washington, DC office.
The new book, written by Jacquelyn Schneider, Hargrove Fellow and director of Hoover’s Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, and Julia Macdonald, research professor at the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies, explores the people, ideas, and institutions that have shaped how the United States military has approached autonomous and unmanned technologies over the past several decades.
The event featured a conversation between the authors and moderator Michael Horowitz, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. It was followed by a reception attended by policymakers, defense professionals, academics, and students.
A Companion Podcast
As part of the launch, Schneider and Macdonald announced that a companion Hoover Institution podcast—also titled The Hand Behind Unmanned—will debut on Wednesday April 23. The limited series podcast will build on themes from the book, featuring interviews with experts in defense, strategy, and technology, such as former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, former Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, and former head of Defense Innovation Unit, Mike Brown.
Podcast episodes document the rise of autonomy in the US military from floating mines and tethered torpedoes to unmanned planes dropped from WW2 bombers; rockets, ballistic and cruise missiles to laser-guided bombs and satellites; and finally, the dominance of remotely piloted aircraft over two decades of a war on terror.
Throughout, the series traces the origins and pathways of ideas behind revolutions in military technologies, risk mitigation strategies, the effects of the 24/7 news cycle, and the power of armed service and occupational identities to explain not just what the US chose to put on the battlefield, but why it did so.
Understanding the US Unmanned Arsenal
Schneider’s and MacDonald’s book challenges the assumption that military technology adoption is purely based on rational cost-benefit analysis or technological superiority. Instead, the book argues that institutional beliefs, service identities, and individual leaders have played central roles in determining which technologies gain traction within the US military.
During the event, Schneider explained the motivation behind the book’s focus.
“Julia and I have always been scholars that look at people in organizations. And I think the fundamental puzzle for us was there was a lot of agency being given to the technology, and there wasn't a lot of story or description or understanding of why that technology,” Schneider said. “This is a story, a book, about people more than it is the technology.”
The authors highlight two recurring belief systems that have influenced US defense choices over the past 30 years: a belief in military revolutions and a belief that the American public is highly averse to casualties in war. Both beliefs, they argue, have had significant effects on the kinds of unmanned systems that were prioritized or sidelined.
Schneider and MacDonald also contrast two traditions that have shaped US military thinking on adoption of unmanned systems—one driven by firsthand experience (as advanced by Air Force generals Bernard Schriever and Curtis LeMay, Navy Admiral Hyman Rickover, and Army General Colin Powell), and another influenced by scholarly ideas of technological transformation advanced by Andrew Marshall and the Office of Net Assessment—shape how different parts of the military have evaluated and integrated autonomous capabilities.
The Role of Service Identity
A central theme of the book is the role of military service identity—how each branch of the armed forces defines its mission and priorities. Macdonald explained that new technologies are more likely to be adopted when they align with these deeply rooted institutional self-conceptions.
Schneider underscores how the Air Force is a case in point.
“The Air Force, for example, has been more likely to adopt unmanned than other services, but they're going to adopt unmanned in a way that propagates the core idea about strategic air power,” Schneider, an Air Force veteran, said
These efforts have often come from external beliefs and influences—through strategic organizations like the now-closed Office of Net Assessment formerly located within the Department of Defense, and more recently, a new wave of private sector defense tech companies and civilian entrepreneurs.
“A lot of this comes back to these core service identities and these efforts to try and push services to integrate technologies that do not align with those core identities,” Macdonald explained.
Schneider added that wartime experience has historically served as another force for change, though in peacetime, institutions tend to revert to familiar practices.
Casualty Aversion
One of the most enduring influences on US defense thinking, Schneider and Macdonald noted, is the belief that public support for war depends on minimizing American casualties. Rooted in the aftermath of Vietnam and reinforced during later conflicts, this belief became deeply embedded in military planning and education. Macdonald explained that it played a central role in shaping early interest in unmanned systems to reduce the risks to US personnel.
Schneider reflected on how this belief was reinforced through her own military education but later challenged by research showing that the public's tolerance for casualties is more complex.
“Americans are casualty averse if they don't believe in something or if they feel like they're going to lose,” she said, adding “But it's not actually a clear story that Americans are casualty averse.”
She noted that casualty aversion didn’t just influence which technologies were adopted, but also how they were framed—often as tools for protecting US forces and enabling fast, low-cost military operations. These assumptions helped shape expectations for how unmanned systems would fit into future conflict and reinforced the appeal of technologies that promised strategic impact with limited human risk.
Looking Ahead
Both authors noted the creation of the US Space Force as a topic of particular interest—one they look forward to exploring further in future work. Schneider explained that the Space Force represents a rare case of a service branch built largely around unmanned platforms from the outset.
They also raised concerns about the current "idea void" in US defense planning, especially following the closure of the Office of Net Assessment. Without clear guiding visions for how future wars will be fought, Schneider questioned what will ultimately drive decisions about the defense arsenal.
The conversation also addressed the growing influence of commercial technology companies and startups in shaping military capability. While this shift could bring innovation, the authors emphasized the need for strategic clarity and institutional guidance to ensure that new technologies align with long-term defense goals.
The Hand Behind Unmanned: Origins of the US Autonomous Military Arsenal is now available from Oxford University Press in digital and print formats.
The podcast will launch on Wednesday, April 23 and will be available on all major streaming platforms. Learn more here.
