As part of Moscow’s hybrid war toolbox, Russia’s weaponization of migration becomes an even more apparent means of destabilizing the West. Across three continents, a pattern of strategically engineered migration emerges as a result of Russian military and hybrid activities. These actions are not only weakening the hand of Western powers across various theaters; they fuel a flow of desperate refugees towards Europe. The ensuing migration crises have profoundly affected the political climate of EU countries, with migration becoming one of the most important topics in electoral campaigns, leading to a growing influence of far-right and anti-immigrant rhetoric. That migration has become weaponized is underscored by the views of the Chief of the Russian Defence Staff, General Valery Gerasimov’s worldview, that “wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template. […] The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of the force of weapons in their effectiveness”.
Russia’s extensive military presence across several theaters around the globe should not be understood merely as attempts at proving Moscow’s resurgence as a global power. These limited, but consequential military adventures also serve as an indirect continuation of Moscow’s hybrid war against the West by other means. Although in various configurations, Russian military actions in countries such as Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mozambique, but especially in Syria and, of course, Ukraine, have generated displacement of civilians in ways that have most obviously served Moscow’s interests. Examining the intricate ways in which Russia has employed such tactics in the past becomes a vital task, especially in the light of heightened tensions in the immediate future.
Syria
Russia’s strategic surprise in Syria, in the form of the 2015 intervention enabled by American inaction during the Obama Administration, ended up exploiting the perfect context for the exercise of this “weapon of mass migration”. Russian forces were quick to reverse the collapse of the Assad regime into an opportunity to gain a strategic foothold in the Middle East. Russian bombings in Syria are an obvious case of what has been labeled as “exportive” strategic displacements: the bombing targets were selected in accord with the political needs of the Assad regime. Although portrayed as a counter-terrorist intervention, Russian pilots focused mainly on Syrian opposition factions and razed civilian territories largely inhabited by Sunni Muslims. In fact, more than 80% of Russian airstrikes in 2016 targeted rebel factions opposed to ISIS. As an added advantage, those civilians displaced were the domestic adversaries and political dissidents that were close to overthrowing Assad. Their removal contributed to the rehabilitation of the regime.
By 2017, the effect of the refugee inflows in Europe was reaching a climax, generating unprecedented stress on European institutions, the consequences of which are being felt to this day. Even after the EU-Turkey deal aimed at curbing migration, and after Hungary erected barriers to halt the influx, countries like Greece are still taking measures to curb the inflows. Countries like Germany, Austria, Denmark, and Sweden have maintained or extended border controls beyond the provisions of the Schengen Agreement. It is also of note that Turkey, the main host of Syrian refugees, has become more willing to accommodate the Assad regime due to the refugee crisis. This is due to Ankara’s desire to facilitate the return of the more than 3 million Syrian refugees inside its borders. There are also hints of potential Russian mediation in this attempt to renormalize relations between Turkey and Syria.
Africa
On the African continent, the Russian Federation has been involved in a series of conflicts, spanning multiple countries such as the Central African Republic (CAR), Mozambique, Libya, and Sudan. All of these strategic military interventions have further fueled regional instability. In both the CAR and Mozambique, the involvement of Russian state-funded Wagner mercenaries in the government-led counter-insurgent operations against various rebel groups has increased instability and generated significant civilian displacement. In a similar vein, Russia’s support for General Haftar's forces in Libya, in the shape of military advisors and financial support since 2016, was followed by the deployment of Wagner troops in 2019. All these interventions have intensified the conflict, resulting in thousands of Libyans fleeing their homes, the majority of them heading towards Europe.
In the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Russian Defense Ministry gradually assumed direct control over Wagner operations in the wider region, secured by the African visits of Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and General Andrei Averyanov from the GRU, the chief intelligence organization. The more direct military involvement of the Ministry of Defense was complemented by Moscow’s diplomatic efforts, in the shape of Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov’s African tours and the second Russia-Africa summit that underscored Russia’s commitment to contribute to African food security.
While these actions replaced Europe’s influence in Africa, the ever-growing number of refugees from Africa into Europe ended up creating social, political, and economic pressures within the EU itself. This has been beneficial to Russia by diverting EU attention and resources, exacerbating internal divisions and weakening European resolve on issues like sanctions against Russia. Such displacement also destabilized African regions, most notably damaging French influence in what Paris regards as its zone of strategic interest and responsibility.
Ukraine
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, in scale and intensity, with as many as 6.5 million people leaving Ukraine in the first few months. Although arguably well-managed by the EU, the pressure put on European social systems is undeniable. Having failed to achieve a quick decisive victory, Russian forces resorted to similar tactics in coercively generating migration flows: since the onset of the war, Russia has strategically targeted Ukraine's energy sector, destroying approximately 50% of its energy output and 80% of its heating infrastructure. This level of destruction is likely to generate waves of seasonal migration. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians are likely to seek safety within the borders of the EU during the colder months of the year, as the energy and heating infrastructure of Ukraine is not reliable. This will put an additional strain on the EU’s social security systems.
Borders with Finland and Belarus
Russia has also strategically weaponized migration to destabilize the European Union, particularly through Poland's border with Belarus, enticing migrants from regions like the Middle East and Africa with the promise of easier entry into Europe. Once in Belarus, these migrants are shepherded towards the EU borders, primarily Poland. The situation has escalated tensions at the border, with incidents of violence from migrants, including throwing rocks and burning wood at Polish troops and even stabbing attacks on soldiers.
Finland has recently become a target of migration weaponization, with the Finnish government adopting a new law aimed at curbing the influx of migrants intentionally pushed by Russia. The criticism this law receives is just another example of the dangerous polarization within the EU on this topic. This law sets a troubling precedent, as it would essentially legalize pushback: physically pushing asylum-seekers back across the border.
Overall impact on Europe and complementarity with disinformation
It is paramount to note the differences in perception between the two main types of migrants that reach EU borders. Ukrainian war refugees enjoy the West’s sympathy and might have an easier time integrating in another European country; their portrayal as victims of Russian aggression neatly fits EU narratives. Meanwhile, African and Middle Eastern immigrants have a much harder time, being more exposed to xenophobia and racial discrimination due to perceived cultural and religious differences. This explains their tendency to form enclaved communities, contributing to an increased sense of alienation on both sides. Another obvious issue is the increased crime rate among such immigrants, which corroborates the narratives of far-right parties. Even though the former group benefits from better integration mechanisms and state support, it is the latter group that is more interested to settle permanently within the EU, as many Ukrainian refugees plan to return (as some already did).
The way the presence of these migrants is framed leads us to the final and most dangerous predicament faced by European society, reaching way beyond the immediate economic challenges presented by refugee flows: societal polarization. The desperate situation of refugees touches the sensibilities of the left just as significantly as it triggers the biggest fears of the right and is often the main cleavage point between the extremes.
Of course, awareness of these fundamental differences of perception is heavily instrumentalized by another arm of Russian hybrid warfare - disinformation. Russia has often framed various events in the Western world to boost anti-immigrant sentiment. The recent incident of the Southport stabbings in Britain illustrates this very well: Russian disinformation has attributed the crime to an asylum-seeker, even though the criminal was born in UK, which has led to violent anti-immigrant riots in the city. It is not the first time Russia exploited such tragedies in order to trigger far-right outbursts. When discrediting Ukrainian refugees, the tactics are different, focusing on the economic consequences of accepting refugees. Germany and Poland have been the main targets, i.e., the two countries hosting the largest numbers of refugees.
Russian disinformation aims to be the seed for chaos that could enable a right-wing takeover in key European countries. Many right-wing parties have connections to Russia and, in addition to their anti-migrant rhetoric, are against providing further support to Ukraine. This is how Russia’s strategic weaponization of migration also aspires to serve the hopes of those in the Kremlin that attempt to alter the very nature of the current European order. These hopes are encapsulated in the words of the most representative thinker of Russian Neo-Imperialism, Aleksandr Dugin, when he said “who will be quicker to develop a model for the disintegration and chaoticization of societies other than their own, will be the winner in this complex game of construction of new international relations, new societies and a new philosophy of life. Chaos is a multipurpose weapon”.
George Scutaru, is the CEO and founder New Strategy Center, and former National Security Advisor to the President of Romania.
Andrei Pavel, is a nonresident expert at the New Strategy Center.
