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Economic policy uncertainty has taken center stage in recent years. According to an aggregation of newspaper-based indices for 21 countries by Steven J. Davis (“An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Macroeconomic Review, 2016), global economic policy uncertainty has increased considerably since 2015 and reached historically high levels.
In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis (2007-08) and the Great Recession (2007-09), households and firms faced lots of uncertainty, not only about when and how the economy would recover, but also confusion on whether and how the administration, Congress, and the Federal Reserve would react. For families considering the purchase of a new car or a move to another city for a job, and for businesses considering new hires or a plant expansion, this policy uncertainty meant that the prudent choice was often wait-and-see.
Economics Working Paper 19109
Efforts to reinvigorate Japan’s economy have proved challenging. Despite significant policy accommodation, growth over the past two decades has been weak and the share of nonregular employment has increased. Wages have been stagnant, and inflation expectations lie below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target.
