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As we approach the conclusion of the 2022 election season, the political environment appears to have drifted halfway between early-year extremes. Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights, the GOP seemed poised to ride economic issues – particularly inflation – to a convincing midterm victory.
A new poll looks at the Americans who say they’re considering leaving the country for good. (They probably won’t.)
A new poll explores what makes Americans ponder emigration—and whether they would actually go.
On June 1, Joe Biden’s job approval rating was 53.3% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with a net approval of plus-11.3. In modern politics, plus-11.3 net approval is impressive. Donald Trump never posted a number that high, and Barack Obama only did so at the very beginning and end of his two terms in office. Unfortunately for Biden, the initial good feelings that marked his first few months have long since disappeared, and as of Oct. 28, his net approval had descended to minus-9.7 percentage points. That 21-point drop has turned Biden into a drag on his party’s midterm ambitions instead of the touted asset some had initially pictured.
President Biden faces pressure from the progressive wing of his party on issues ranging from the $15 minimum wage to the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill to climate change legislation. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the Washington Post in mid-January that Biden’s stimulus proposal doesn’t go far enough and some have claimed that not moving further left will have dire electoral ramifications. Bernie Sanders recently echoed AOC’s concerns, tweeting “In 1994, Democrats in power lost big because they were not bold. In 2010, it happened again.
In a divided country, elections are won on the margin.
In mid-August of 2016, YouGov polling placed Hillary Clinton six percentage points ahead of Donald Trump among registered voters (41%-35%). Four years later, Joe Biden also leads Trump in mid-August YouGov polling -- only this time, the lead is about 10 points. Everyone knows what happened to Clinton’s late-summer advantage. Biden supporters naturally wonder whether their lead is any more secure.
At the end of March, President Trump was on a roll: Having been acquitted by the Senate in February, he was taking credit for a coronavirus lockdown that “saved 2 million lives,” in his estimate, and was an odds-on favorite to win the 2020 election (a plus-seven-point margin in the RealClearPolitics betting average). RCP’s polling average placed his job approval rating at 47.4%, with over 50% approved of his handling of the COVID-19 crisis.
President Trump’s recent four-to-five percentage point bump in job approval can be viewed as a “rally round the flag” phenomenon. Surges in a president’s job approval rating have often been seen during times of national crisis or external attack, including the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Iranian hostage taking in1979, the Persian Gulf War during George H.W. Bush’s presidency and the 9/11 attacks while his son was in the White House.
