Welcome to the Hoover Institution’s semi-monthly briefing on national security. This month we look at Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his fight to save his country; national security and conservative principles; frontier AI and securing democratic advantage; Germany’s reluctance to support Ukraine; US neglect of Latin America and the Caribbean; and Britian’s point position in World War II, in comparison to Israel’s fight today. Finally, we highlight Library & Archives recently acquired papers from the Conflict Records Research Center.
FEATURED ANALYSIS
Courage Under Fire
In his eloquent defense of Israel and Netanyahu, Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson carefully chronicles both the increasing challenges the prime minister has faced and the resolve that has seen him through each one. He likens Netanyahu’s situation to that of Churchill in June 1940, with personal and political attacks accumulating: “After October 7 Netanyahu faced a bleak regional and global landscape . . . with a sympathetic America still hesitant to ensuring its existence.” As Hanson asserts, Western responses veered into anti-Semitism. “The old friendship days of Donald Trump . . . were long gone. In their place emerged the most anti-Israeli American government in memory.” Through all the hectoring from the Biden administration—to the point of meddling in internal Israeli politics—Netanyahu held fast. One year on, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself are effectively crippled. As the author concludes, “The surreal aspect of the Netanyahu retaliatory tour is that he has done more to neutralize European and American enemies . . . than NATO, the CIA, the FBI and Interpol combined, and yet more often received rebuke rather than gratitude.”
Change Is Good
In a comprehensive essay, National Security Visiting Fellow Nadia Schadlow reminds readers of core conservative principles with regard to US foreign policy and carefully lays out a road map for best implementing them in these challenging times. In the view of the author, these principles provide the most effective strategic approach to securing America’s freedoms and those of the liberal West. A belief in liberty amid the encroaching nature of power “lies at the core of conservative foreign policy.” National sovereignty is its linchpin, tested around the world by international competition. She quotes from the 2017 US National Security Strategy that a “central continuity in history is the contest for power.” On that score, the author asserts that a strong military is essential. By highlighting the failure of globalization to create a world of peace and comity, Schadlow insists that America’s strength must be used to “influence geopolitical developments in ways that favor U.S. interests.” Wary of global multilateral institutions, the author turns rather to local alliances, the bolstering of innovative domestic manufacturing, the targeted use of tariffs and sanctions to level the commercial playing field, and ending support for research done by rivals like China. Ultimately, “national security considerations must override economic efficiency.” Finally, maintaining a forward presence militarily pays huge dividends in deterring conflict. (This essay appeared in Foreign Policy in November 2022, and we revisit it due to its pertinence in today’s political environment.)
This is Not a Wait and See Moment
Senior Fellow Philip Zelikow along with Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, Eric Schmidt, and Jason Matheny write that 2025 will see the advancement of AI in the intelligence and defense arenas and they propose “a way to manage the convergence of three great vectors: private sector–led innovation, emerging threats, and international efforts.” In this paper, Zelikow and his co-authors address the geopolitical danger and the need for international cooperation if we are to be successful in combating what our adversaries plan for frontier AI. Complacency by the US and her allies is fraught with danger and though America and her partners will think of their own national security first, “as Benjamin Franklin once put it, we and at least some of our friends “must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”
Germany, This Is No Time to Be Wishy-Washy
Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson lays out what exactly is at stake as Germany increasingly fails to step up to the financial and military challenges posed by Putin’s Russia. Tracing levels of contribution for NATO members since its inception, Ferguson paints a dire—even shocking—picture of a Europe on the front lines of potential all-out war, utterly unprepared and with no plans to substantially increase arms production. Germany stands out for its dereliction. “There is no good reason today why Poland should be spending twice the share of GDP on defense that Germany spends.” With regards to military aid to Ukraine, “German support remains insufficient”. At present, by every economic, demographic, and military measure, Russia towers over Ukraine. “So great is the discrepancy that the coalition supporting Ukraine deserves to be called the Allies of Weak Will.” And there is little doubt that Putin’s “ultimate goal is the destruction of NATO.” The author ends by quoting Poland’s foreign minister, commenting on the monetary union, and applying his words to Europe’s present defense arrangements: “We ask Berlin to admit that it is the biggest beneficiary of current arrangements and that it therefore has the biggest obligation to make them sustainable.”
America’s Cavalier Attitude
In an extensive essay, Hoover Fellow Joseph Ledford argues for greater attention to Latin America and the Caribbean in US foreign policy. Highlighting the focus given by Ronald Reagan and Secretary of State George Shultz on simply building a healthy neighborhood in the region, the author asserts that such a strategy also crucially plays into our growing endeavors to confront the threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. “Washington’s inattention to its neighborhood proves stupefyingly self-defeating amid a struggle to prevent Beijing and its despotic partners from upending the American-led global order.” China’s increasing investment in infrastructure and trade with the region and its role in the production of fentanyl and other illicit drugs bring malign influences to our doorstep. “At every step of the drug trade, China now plays an important part.” Russian and Iranian activity in the region is equally aggressive and pernicious, from provision of nuclear-powered submarines to arms dealing, money laundering, sex trafficking, and commodities theft. Alliances between pernicious state actors and the South American cartels is growing dramatically. At the same time, Ledford makes clear that many Latin American countries can provide the United States with not only strategic commodities but also competitive workforces for the semiconductor and automotive industries. For the people to our south, “the United States presents renewed opportunity.” This potential, along with the trend toward democratic rule, should be seized upon: “The United States must actively engage its neighbors to parlay the encouraging developments underway in the Western Hemisphere into long-term prosperity and stability.”
Leading the Charge
Distinguished Visiting Fellow Andrew Roberts draws parallels between Israel’s isolation as it battles for survival against the malign forces of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran and the situation Britain found itself in between June 1940 and June 1941. “In that 12 month period . . . Britain and her Commonwealth formed the tip of the spear against ‘the menace of tyranny’, just as brave Israel today represents the tip of civilisation’s spear against the tyranny and barbarism of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism and exterminationism.” However, that comparison breaks down in terms of the support Britain had from its allies and the reluctance of many Western countries today to back Israel’s efforts. Ultimately, “What Churchill said about Britain’s ability ‘to ride out the storm of war’ has powerful echoes in modern-day Israel.”
HISTORY IN FOCUS
The Hoover Institution Library & Archives has acquired and will make available to the public the archive of the CRRC, which was established to fulfill former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ intent to enable research on captured records with “complete openness and rigid adherence to academic freedom and integrity.” The CRRC’s mission was to facilitate the use of captured records to support research both within and outside the U.S. government, and the collection includes a valuable cache of documents related to Iraq under the rule of Saddam Hussein and materials on al-Qaeda and associated movements primarily based in Afghanistan.
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