Welcome back to the Issues Affecting American Democracy Newsletter. The first presidential debate was last night, so the campaign season is officially underway. This month, Michael J. Boskin summarizes how various states approach controversial election policies; Niall Ferguson makes the provocative case that America has become like the late stages of the Soviet Union; Justin Grimmer considers the mismatch between political rhetoric about elections and legal and procedural realities; and Tom Church interviews Michael Boskin on what voters really know about the federal budget.
FEATURED ANALYSIS
A Summary of What States Do on the Most Contentious Election Rules
Michael J. Boskin and Garrett Te Kolste analyze state election laws around controversial practices such as ballot harvesting, ID verification, and early voting. They write, “Historically, there has been a tension between those who desire greater ease of access to voting and those desiring that it be made more difficult to undermine the integrity, or perceived integrity, of elections. This is not surprising when election outcomes can be very close.” They later assert, “Even when [election] rules do not clearly affect the outcome of elections, they, and especially their changes, can induce suspicion about potential problems with election integrity.”
Click here to read the essay.
We’re All Soviets Now
In his debut column for The Free Press, Niall Ferguson argues that the United States of 2024 shares many unfortunate attributes with the late stages of the Soviet Union, straining America’s ability to successfully wage “Cold War II.” He writes, “The question that haunts me is: What if China has learned the lessons of Cold War I better than we have? I fear that Xi Jinping has not only understood that, at all costs, he must avoid the fate of his Soviet counterparts. He has also, more profoundly, understood that we can be maneuvered into being the Soviets ourselves.” While it is tempting to blame hostile external forces for (unevenly distributed) American declines in health, wealth, and civil cohesion, Ferguson suggests we “need to contemplate the possibility that we have done this to ourselves—just as the Soviets did many of the same things to themselves.
Click here to read the essay.
Evidence vs. Hyperbole
Justin Grimmer and Eitan Hersh assess public attitudes toward the electoral systems of the United States to explore the relationship between election laws and the health of democracy. They emphasize that many election policies are thought to be more consequential with respect to outcomes than they really are. “Whether a state decides to prioritize mail voting or in-person voting is a question that should come down to both value judgments and mundane logistics. The state’s decision about this and so many other aspects of election policy need not be influenced by those seeking partisan advantage. That is because, across a very wide range of policies, election laws do not confer partisan advantages.”
Click here to read the essay.
What Do Voters Know about the Federal Budget?
Following up on his coauthored paper “Policy Knowledge in the Public,” Michael J. Boskin sat down with policy fellow Tom Church to discuss what Americans know about federal government spending. “When asked about what proportion of the federal budget was spent on [various] program areas,” Boskin said,” most respondents grossly overestimated the proportion of spending in every area. For example, 60 percent of respondents thought that defense spending constituted more than 20 percent of the federal budget, when the reality is that it amounted to about 11 percent of federal outlays.” Heading into the election, this mismatch between spending perceptions and realities complicates political discussion of how and to what extent government spending should be reallocated.
Click here to listen.
“Ideally, voting rules and processes in mature democracies should be stable over time
and instill high public confidence in the outcomes of elections. That is not the case in the United States currently.”
—Bruce E. Cain and Ben Ginsberg, “Restoring Confidence in American Elections”
HIGHLIGHTS
Juneteenth Is Our Second Independence Day
Commemorating Juneteenth in The Free Press, Tad and Dianne Taube Director of the Hoover Institution Condoleezza Rice writes, “Even though my family has been celebrating Juneteenth since my childhood, it wasn’t until 2021 that Congress voted, almost unanimously, to make Juneteenth National Independence Day a federal holiday. Because many Americans are unfamiliar with its significance, some, perhaps understandably, wonder why it needed national recognition at all. . . . To me, Juneteenth is a recognition of what I call America’s second founding.”
Click here to read the essay.
Working at Home Helped Whip Inflation
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Steven J. Davis outlines his research on the relationship between inflation and the shift to greater remote work since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Our team asked hundreds of business executives whether remote work affected their firms’ wages. Thirty-eight percent told us their companies had relied on the work-from-home boom to moderate wage-growth pressures in the previous 12 months.” Building on this possibly unintended success, Davis argues, “Good policy must finish the job of controlling inflation.”
Click here to read the column.
Yuval Levin Counsels Civic Renewal through Constitutional Repair
Peter Berkowitz reviews American Covenant: How the Constitution Unified Our Nation–and Could Again, by American Enterprise Institute director of social, cultural, and constitutional studies Yuval Levin. Berkowitz finds that Levin successfully “synthesizes an impressive range of scholarship on American constitutional government, the political theory of modern republics, contemporary American government, and classical ideas about the regime and citizenship.” Extending Levin’s analysis, Berkowitz ultimately argues that the “restoration of the Constitution’s unity-producing work depends on the reform of liberal education.”
Click here to read the review.
The Political Reaction to Immigration
On the Economics, Applied podcast, host Steven Davis is joined by Marco Tabellini from Harvard Business School to explore the political reactions to immigration. They discuss whether economic or cultural concerns drive backlash, and how these reactions influence policy outcomes. The conversation delves into historical and contemporary issues, providing insights into the complex economic, social, and political effects of immigration.
Click here to listen.
Upcoming Hoover Institution Events
- Ideas Uncorked: NATO at 75 with Rose Gottemoeller, Hoover Institution Washington, DC, Office, July 16, 5:00–6:30 pm ET
- On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis, Hoover Institution Washington, DC, Office, July 25, 5:30–7:30 pm ET
For more insights into key policy issues, visit
hoover.org/publications/issues-affecting-american-democracy-election-2024
