Since 1973, when the U.S. ended conscription, America has relied exclusively on voluntary recruitment to fill the ranks of our armed forces; and as we begin a new year, the current status of military recruitment paints a mixed picture. On the one hand, the results for fiscal year 2024 were encouraging, showing an uptick in recruiting, with a sizable 25,000 increase in volunteers from the previous year. That equated to over a 12% increase across the Department of Defense in 2024.
On the other hand, this figure somewhat distorts the reality that the dramatic shortfalls of 2022 and 2023 (where recruitment misses exceeded 40,000 in a single year) caused the Department of Defense to reduce end-strength authorizations well beyond what most leaders and analysts are comfortable with when considering all the potential threats and contingencies requiring force structure. This, in turn, led to reduced recruitment goals for 2024, which is at least part of the reason why nearly all service components met their yearly quotas last year. The reality is we are still struggling to recruit the numbers of young Americans necessary to fully man the all-volunteer force for the long haul, and if these trends are not reversed, we may need to consider reinstating the draft.
Considering the proud history of the U.S. armed forces since the Founding, and all the accolades and reputational gain bestowed upon veterans by many Americans, and the life skills, resiliency, and material benefits that accrue to veterans from their military service, these deeply concerning developments surrounding alarming recruitment shortfalls raise the haunting question: what is going on?
Several major factors account for these concerning trends. First, demographically, the declining birth rate in America equates to a lower denominator for the overall recruitment pool. Thus, even accessions at the same rates as previous generations will mean fewer recruits in the years to come. Simply put, these demographic challenges will require higher yields from the pool to achieve established goals, and there is no escaping that reality.
Second, among those in the current recruitment pool, in terms of physical, social, and intellectual prerequisites, fewer are eligible to enter military service. In 2020, for example, an eye-popping 77% of young Americans aged 17 to 24, did not meet the minimum qualifications for military service without a waiver. Although in recent years defense leaders have partially addressed this phenomenon by increasing eligibility waivers and, to a degree, lowering previous standards for military service (e.g. allowing more waivers for those with mental health challenges and lowering the standards on previous marijuana use and disqualifying body tattoos, which made more Americans eligible to serve), this trend is clearly a national security issue that should alarm all Americans as our potential adversaries are paying attention and note this decline in our society at-large.
On this score, some credit is due to our national defense leaders as in recent years a new program designed to increase eligibility to serve has been established and it has achieved promising results. These new Future Soldier/Sailor Preparatory Courses, which have focused on physical fitness and intellectual aptitude (as measured by entry aptitude testing), have notably increased the numerator of those eligible for military service. These important programs should be sustained and strengthened in coming years. The same goes for the increased attention and resources given to this entire endeavor (e.g. more recruiters on the ground and enhanced transparency and accountability measures throughout the armed services to ensure recruitment goals are met) provided in the last few years since the devastating failures of 2022 and 2023. These must be sustained as well.
The third factor contributing to this trend is exogenous to the military but must be recognized and dealt with in policies and approaches. Generally, when job markets are especially strong (with corresponding low unemployment rates), these periods in the past have been associated with attendant military recruitment challenges. In recent years, this has been the case. Simply put, when Americans can’t find jobs, they join the military in higher rates and vice versa. I address this matter at the end of the essay.
Fourth, to save money to allow for investments in other areas of the defense budget, in some cases economic incentives to join the military were curtailed or altered and these policy changes played a role in the downturn in recruitment a few years ago, although I disagree with those who point to this factor as the deciding one for the disturbing trends. Still, because of the recruitment failures of 2022 and 2023, most of these policies were reversed (for example, the college loan repayment program is now back in full measure) and this helped the increase in recruitment numbers in 2024. We might consider similar incentive programs for young Americans who didn’t go to college. Perhaps we should consider car loan repayment for enlistment, for example.
Still, despite all these aforementioned factors adversely affecting the propensity to volunteer, and corresponding policy changes to address them, there is yet another factor that must be considered, and in my view, it is the most significant one as far as military recruitment is concerned. For a variety of reasons, Gen Z does not value military service as much as previous generations. Some of these reasons include the overall national trend of declining faith in leaders and institutions, which for Gen Z has been exacerbated by their disillusionment with the military’s use in perceived endless (and pointless) wars of foreign occupation since 9/11, and heavy-handed deployment of troops during periods of domestic unrest since the Ferguson riots and national reactions to the death of George Floyd. Still others from longstanding traditional military families are turned off from volunteering by the recent Department of Defense policy focus on “wokeness” and political correctness. The reality is, for different reasons, mirroring larger issues of ideological polarization in America, the children of the left and right are less inspired to serve today.
Exacerbating this trend, for too many of Gen Z, there is the misperception that military service is a detour in the “race of life.” By joining the military, too many young folks today believe they will fall behind their peers and ultimately achieve less in life with nothing (or too little) to show for it, and this brings me to the real point of this essay. Strong, effective national leadership can, and must, address these false impressions. I wonder how many members of Gen Z know, for example, that before he earned his doctorate from Harvard and went on to serve as both National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, making huge contributions to American foreign policy, Henry Kissinger was first a sergeant in the U.S. Army serving with a front-line Infantry Division during World War II? At the end of his long and very distinguished life, Kissinger was honored with burial in the Arlington National Cemetery.
Or, how many young folks today know that 31 of our previous presidents served in the military? Or that countless business, academic, religious, and community leaders served in uniform long before rising to prominence in their respective professional lives? Military service is not a distraction or side-tracking, but rather an enhancement to life potential. Moreover, and importantly, it is also a meaningful way to serve others and the greater good of society. Military service provides much-needed perspective, life skills, and emotional maturity, positively altering the way we perceive and process life in a free society. Over the years since the Founding, military service has strengthened our national social fabric and helped coalesce and fortify our national spirit, helping to catapult America to global superpower status and the envy of the modern world.
As I close this essay, my mind drifts to the movie, Saving Private Ryan. In the scene at the end of the film, Ryan, after enduring World War II and going on to live a full life, while walking through the Normandy cemetery, turns to his family emotionally and seeks their reassurances that he has lived a good life so as to be worthy of those precious post-war years he enjoyed, which came from the sacrifices of those whom he fought with as a young man, those who gave the last full measure of devotion for Ryan and all Americans in the just cause for freedom.
All those of the greatest generation who served in uniform, and those who came before and after them, represent the best of what America has to offer. These stories must be told to Gen Z. If we want to remedy the military recruitment challenges, we will need to convince today’s young Americans that they are part of something special and that now is their time to step forward to protect this cherished way of life, even if only for a few years. Time in the military for citizens is more than worth it, it’s life-defining and good…and necessary for a free-people. More than any other policy that addresses this concerning trend of recruitment shortfalls, including smart and deserving economic incentives for service, this inspiration to serve must be imparted if we are to survive and flourish in the 21st century. We should do so without delay.
