The role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in future military engagements between the United States and China is receiving considerable attention as the two countries are currently leading producers of AI technology, with both investing heavily in AI research and development for both civilian and military purposes. The strategic rivalry between these two superpowers has already extended into the domain of AI, where advancements could significantly influence military capabilities and strategic outcomes.
The integration of AI into military strategies and operations will undoubtedly alter the nature of warfare, and changes in armed conflicts engendered by AI will be much more transformative than any past revolutions in military affairs in human history. AI-equipped military missions can accomplish all the planning, conditioning, and fighting between the U.S. and China faster and more effectively, simply because AI technologies can process vast amounts of data much faster than humans, enabling quicker and more informed decisions on the battlefield.
For instance, AI-powered systems can identify patterns and anomalies in satellite imagery to track military movements or assess damage after an attack. In cyber warfare, AI algorithms can detect, defend against, and launch sophisticated cyber-attacks far beyond human capabilities. There is no doubt that AI is set to revolutionize unmanned systems by enhancing their autonomy, allowing for more complex and coordinated operations without direct human control. These capabilities could significantly impact air, land, sea, and space domains, offering strategic advantages in speed, precision, and force multiplication.
Because of the tremendous gap in levels of tolerance for casualties between the extremely casualty-averse U.S. and communist China that is far less so, a crucial question on the minds of many political leaders, military commanders, and strategists is: can AI replace human combatants in a future military confrontation between the United States and China that is considered by all to be catastrophically bloody and costly?
The answer to this question involves several salient considerations involving the mind-boggling capabilities, or potential capabilities of AI, and its limitations that are equally telling; the legal and ethical frameworks that guide the integration of AI with military affairs; and the danger of complete reliance on automation and AI’s potential for catastrophes.
While AI and robotics are advancing rapidly, fully autonomous systems capable of complex combat operations without human oversight are still in development. The challenges include not just technological hurdles but also ensuring reliability, accountability, and adherence to international law and norms.
We should not underestimate AI’s vulnerabilities that China can exploit. China has the world’s most advanced hacking capabilities. No country in history has ever been able to match China’s ability to steal vital data systems of its adversaries via hacking. Sensitive personal, governmental, and corporate data clusters of hundreds of U.S. government agencies, corporate entities, and hundreds of millions of ordinary Americans, have been stolen via hacking by Chinese state-sponsored hackers. The lost data include fingerprint records, security clearance data, banking codes, credit records and scores, passport and Social Security numbers, biometrics, and travel routines.
Known and documented hacking cases in recent years by Chinese hackers include breaches at the federal Office of Personnel Management (2015, 21 million people’s records stolen), Anthem Inc. (2015, 80 million records stolen at the second largest insurer), Equifax (2017, 147 million people’s financial/credit records stolen), Marriott International Hotel’s reservation system (2018, 383 million customers’ records stolen), Microsoft Exchange Server (2021, 100s of millions of corporate records worldwide stolen), and U.S. Naval Undersea Warfare Center (2022, unknown quantity of U.S. submarine tech and capability data stolen).
Applying this pattern of Chinese hacking behavior to a real battlefield scenario involving a showdown between the United States and China, the danger of American AI’s susceptibility to Chinese hacking, and even worse, AI system errors, will have catastrophic consequences.
Ethically, the deployment of fully autonomous weapons raises significant concerns. Decisions about life and death in combat may require moral and ethical judgments that current AI systems are incapable of making. The international community, including the United States and China, is grappling with these issues, seeking to establish norms and regulations for the use of autonomous weapons.
An arms race in military AI technology between the United States and China could exacerbate tensions and lead to an escalation of conflicts. Diplomatic efforts and international agreements on the use of AI in warfare will be crucial in mitigating these risks.
AI will play a significant role in future military confrontations, offering both opportunities and challenges. While AI can augment human capabilities in various domains, the complete replacement of human combatants with AI is fraught with technological, ethical, and strategic complexities. The United States and China, as leaders in AI technology, have a responsibility to navigate these challenges carefully, ensuring that advancements in military AI contribute to global stability rather than conflict. Collaborative international efforts to establish norms and regulations for the use of AI in warfare will be vital in ensuring that future military engagements are conducted responsibly and ethically.
