The 1984 blockbuster movie The Terminator envisions a future world taken over by an artificial intelligence entity known as Skynet, which builds cybernetic killing machines to rule over what is left of humanity after a nuclear holocaust (which it instigated) devastated the planet. In that future, humans had become slaves to machines. The screenwriters posited that future world in the year 2029—almost a half century in the future by the time the movie aired, but now only five years away.
In our present, drones have changed the character of war in three dimensions, and although these machines are still directed by human operators, the possibility of autonomous weapons is very real. The emergence of artificial intelligence has awakened the dreams and fears of the film’s creators in 1984, of enhanced productivity in the best case, and in a nightmare scenario, of the dominance of machines.
As much as some would like to slow or forestall the emergence of artificial intelligence and robotic armaments, the history of weapons technology suggests that we will not likely be able to control their spread. Even successful arms control agreements, such as the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922, only staved off an arms race for a decade. Eventually, Japan figured it could gain an advantage over its strategic competitors by renouncing the accord, leading other states to follow suit. By the time of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, many of the ships that would win the Pacific War were already under construction in U.S. shipyards.
So unmanned drones and robotic systems, powered by increasingly powerful artificial intelligence, are here to stay. For the moment, humans will operate these systems, but from where remains to be seen. Artificial intelligence will enable one operator to manage multiple systems, increasing combat power while reducing risk to humans. Increasingly smart drone and robotic systems will enhance the power of armed forces, as they have done in the Ukraine War in the past two years.
The evolution of manned flight is a good indicator of the future of unmanned systems. First fulfilling a reconnaissance role, pilots in World War I quickly learned how to drop bombs from their aircraft on troops and installations. They next figured out how to shoot down opposing aircraft, helped by the invention of the gun synchronizer that allowed forward facing machine guns to shoot through an aircraft propellor without damaging it. The next step was the use of aircraft for missions further behind the lines, such as the interdiction of reserves and transportation networks, and the strategic bombing of cities. Navies learned how to employ aircraft from ships, eventually developing specialized vessels that changed the character of naval warfare. Beginning in the Interwar period, transport aircraft flew both cargo and paratroopers to their destinations, completing the range of missions performed by air forces today.
The progression of unmanned aerial vehicles is following this same trajectory. Predator drones were developed as reconnaissance platforms, until intelligence agencies and the military figured out how to fire air-to-ground missiles from them. The next step will be the creation of unmanned fighters, perhaps controlled by a centralized aerial platform. Unmanned strategic bombers and transport aircraft (at least for flying cargo) are already in development. The air force will look a lot different a few decades from now than it does today, but its missions will remain the same. If the Ukraine War has taught us anything, it is that air superiority is the prerequisite for effective maneuver on the battlefield.
Navies and armies are also leveraging the capabilities of unmanned systems for both logistics and combat functions. For the moment these systems will augment manned platforms but not necessarily replace them. But the future of artificial intelligence is unclear, and the technology is still in its infancy. Within the next half century, perhaps Skynet and its terminators will become a reality after all.
