Political commentators assert that American politics has become highly polarized: most people fall on the extremes and the middle has vanished. A close examination of public opinion data, however, uncovers little or no evidence of such claims. But the data show that Republicans have become more conservative and Democrats more liberal. These changes balance, leaving the overall voter distribution unchanged but the moderate middle without a home in either party.
Takeaways
- A common assertion is that American politics has become highly polarized, with most people on the political extremes and few remaining in the center.
- The data show no evidence for such assertions. Whether one examines voters’ ideology, issue positions, or party affiliations, the general finding is one of little change over the past half century. But one significant change—declining party identification—points in the direction of less polarization.
- The explanation for this puzzle is that the parties sorted: Democrats became more homogeneously liberal and Republicans more homogeneously conservative, leaving the aggregate voter distribution largely unchanged but greatly increasing party conflict.
