Keeping Turkey Within The NATO Orbit

Even before the Ukraine war, Turkey had moved closer to China, a critical source of financing and imports after the country’s 2021 financial crisis. The war gave Turkey the opportunity to act as an intermediary between China and Russia, and its exports to Russia doubled. Turkey has exploited the war for its own economic and strategic advantage to the detriment of NATO interests. It has no allies, only partners of convenience. It is not an ally of Iran. The Gulf states have provided Turkey with financial support in the hope that Turkey will act as counterweight to Iran’s extraterritorial ambitions, as it has in Syria. It also benefits from the transshipment of Russian hydrocarbons through the Turkish energy hub. Despite its opening to China and Russia, Turkey’s main export markets remain Europe and the United States, and the West can employ a combination of carrot and stick to keep Turkey within the NATO orbit.