Since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, we have not formed a coherent foreign policy for the Middle East. The withdrawal was this administration's only Middle East-related foreign policy implementation. As a result, the Afghan Taliban returned to power. Elsewhere, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq continue to pose a threat to US interests, there is a frozen conflict in Syria, and Iran’s UAV (unmanned ariel vehicles) support to Moscow in the Ukraine war suspended nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, all of which shows how the administration downgraded Middle East policy. The most effective response has been sanctions against companies linked to Iranian UAVs, but the Middle East remains unstable and uncertain.
In addition, the US relationship with Gulf nations has also weakened. The turmoil and uncertainty of Washington’s politics forced the Gulf nations to reevaluate their relationship with the US. The limited diplomatic efforts have not produced ideal results to ease Gulf security concerns. The optics of the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan became a jumping-off point for the Gulf states to pursue other opportunities politically, economically, and militarily. This is an ongoing pattern by Gulf nations who are charting their own paths in political and security matters, specifically with China. Consequently, the absence of an alignment between the Gulf nations and Washington’s foreign policy is concerning because it means that the most powerful nations in the region may side with America’s adversaries if those options are more favorable.
The current international political climate shows that ‘special relationships’ in the Middle East belong to the past. Times and global dynamics have changed. Exclusivity lost its cachet, and through its diplomatic power plays, China has been able to position itself as a tempting alternative. In a calculated move, Beijing filled a diplomatic vacuum that Washington left behind. China played its hand via economic diplomacy to undercut US foreign policy in the region.
Objectively, however, Washington's focus is the war in Ukraine and China's activities in the South China Sea, and the Middle East is therefore not a top priority, the consequence of compartmentalizing Gulf politics. Security continues to be the fundamental concern in the Middle East, and Washington’s missteps in remaining engaged in the region have led Gulf nations to look for other options.
Beijing’s Economic Diplomacy
In 2016, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia escalated when Riyadh executed, Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, a Shia cleric, critical of the government. Protests erupted at the Saudi embassy in Tehran, leading to diplomatic closures on both sides. Five years later, then-Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi initiated informal talks between Iran and Saudi representatives in Baghdad. Since 2021, there have been a series of dialogues between Iranian and Saudi representatives in Iraq and Oman, which Washington welcomed.
Ultimately, China facilitated a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023; the two countries agreed to reopen their respective embassies with potential bilateral off-ramps in the future.
Indeed, since Beijing is the region’s largest trading partner, replacing the European Union, economic diplomacy was a strategic approach towards strengthening partnerships with Gulf nations who were already doubting the US commitment to the region. Specifically, oil is at the center of economic diplomacy. Despite the threat of sanctions, Iran is still one of China’s main oil suppliers and Chinese firms have long been associated with sanctioned Iranian oil and petrochemical products.
Since Washington and Tehran do not have diplomatic relations, facilitating talks between regional rivals is an impossible task. Rebuking a longtime Gulf partner does not bode well, either. The Saudis have not forgotten that presidential candidate Biden characterized them as a “pariah” state because of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s role in the Jamal Khashoggi assassination.
The overall rhetoric towards Saudi Arabia changed the spirit of the relationship, making it more confrontational. Indeed, human rights concerns remain, but no partner is perfect. Throughout modern history, we learned to work with imperfect partners for the sake of US global interests. Unfortunately, robust diplomacy has not supplanted the void left by the US military withdrawal from the region.
Hedging Bets?
The economy is not the only contributing factor. Strengthening partnerships among themselves is a subtle political move among Gulf nations. The Syrian civil war is ongoing, but in May 2023, the Arab League reinstated Syria's membership after 12 years. This followed Saudi Arabia and Syria agreeing to reopen diplomatic missions and resume flights between the two countries for the first time since 2012.
Additionally, the UAE ceased its participation in the U.S.-led maritime security force. Known as the Combined Maritime Forces, it is a security collective made up of nearly 40 countries to protect the flow of commerce in the Persian Gulf. While participation is optional, the UAE’s departure is significant. When Iran seized two tankers navigating the Persian Gulf in April 2023, the UAE perceived the lack of a firm response as a sign that the collective security was broken.
Gulf politics have been deliberate in defying US interests. Last October, OPEC+—the group of 10 oil-producing countries, which include Russia and Saudi Arabia—lowered oil output just months after President Biden visited Riyadh. Despite the administration's efforts to prevent this outcome and preserve the relationship, Riyadh strategically coordinated with Moscow over cuts in oil output. In December 2022, China and Saudi Arabia inaugurated the China-Arab States Summit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping attended and met with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) heads of state. While Washington correctly pivoted its focus to Russia’s war in Ukraine, it left few assurances elsewhere in the world.
As the de facto leader of the Gulf, regional nations will look to Riyadh for guidance, as they had with the Abraham Accords. The UAE and Bahrain likely would not be signatories without Saudi consultation. However, the Abraham Accords have weakened. What could have been a vehicle for normalization and bringing Israel closer to longtime rivals has now been diluted by Beijing's diplomatic overtures in the Middle East. China and Russia are perceived as viable alternatives to the US and there is negligible advancement in bridging the gap with Israel. China employed economic diplomacy by facilitating the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oman and Qatar never dissociated from Iran and this rapprochement may serve as an opening for other Gulf nations to do the same. As such, the UAE followed Saudi Arabia’s lead. UAE leader Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed, was twice hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has even planned for his country to conduct air force training with China.
Conclusion
It has been decades since Washington had a grand strategy for the Middle East. The war in Ukraine has ramifications outside of the immediate geographical location. Beijing’s sudden rise as a diplomatic alternative is a sign that we have lost sight of the interconnectedness of grand strategy. As we see Beijing continue to exploit more fragile relationships, we should begin asking ourselves a serious question: is the US being contained?
Some mistakenly argue that the war in Ukraine is not Washington’s problem, and they also fail to acknowledge how it is impacting our global relationships. Partnerships are about credibility. Policymakers must understand that Washington’s relationship with the Gulf nations is being weighed and found wanting. Their reevaluation of their relationships with the US should give policymakers pause. A valuable lesson to remember is that the Middle East forgives and forgets nothing.
Dr. Alma Keshavarz is with US Cyber Command and previously served in the Office of Policy Planning at the Department of State. The views expressed here are her own and do not reflect those of the DoD or the US government.
