Greece: Security And Prosperity In The Mediterranean

>> HR McMaster: America and other free and open societies face crucial challenges and opportunities abroad that affect security and prosperity at home. This is a series of conversations with guests who bring deep understanding of today's battlegrounds. And creative ideas about how to compete, overcome challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and secure a a better future.

I am HR McMaster, this is Battlegrounds. On today's episode of Battlegrounds, our focus is on the Hellenic Republic, Greece, a strategic ally of the United States and one of the most influential countries in history. Our guest, Alexandros Papianu, is the permanent representative of Greece to the UN and international organizations.

He previously served as spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign affairs in Greece, as well as the director of press and media service at the ministry. He worked for seven years at the Political affairs and Security Policy Division of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and worked in the policy planning unit of the NATO secretary generals office.

From the second millennium BCE, the Greek mainland was home to mysian civilization, which had a highly sophisticated economy, arts, and a writing system that recorded the earliest Greek texts. During the archaic period, Greek communities formed into city states and colonized much of the Mediterranean. In the classical period, 480 to 323 BCE, the two most powerful greek city states, Athens and Sparta, sparred for control of the region, in the first and second Peloponnesian wars.

City states reached the peak of their power and cultural production. It was the time of playwrights including Sophocles and Euripides, as well as philosophers like Plato and Socrates. Starting in 336 BCE, Alexander the Great led the kingdom of Macedonia to conquer Greek city states, the Persian Empire, and beyond, spreading Greek culture and institutions in the process.

After Alexander's death in 323 BCE, his generals and descendants vied for control of the massive empire. Which they divided into several kingdoms and ushered in the phase of Greek history known as the Hellenistic period. Due to its strategic geographical location, Greece has experienced incursions by Romans, Franks, Venetians, Ottoman Turks, and most recently, Italians and Nazis during World War II.

From 146 BCE through 1821 CE, three empires ruled Greece, the Romans, the Byzantines, and the Ottomans. Contrasting Roman and byzantine rule, the Ottomans forced Greek assimilation to ottoman laws and customs. But in the 18th century, Greek enlightenment saw Greece experience a renewed sense of national identity. In 1821, Greece became the first nation to seek its independence from the Ottoman Empire.

The United States established diplomatic relations with Greece in 1868. Greece fought in the first and second Balkan wars in the 1910s and gained land and island territories from ottoman and bulgarian forces. In 1940, Greece successfully repelled Benito Mussolini's forces, yet was unable to fend off Nazi German forces, the following year.

Britain and Greece forced a Nazi withdrawal in 1944. In 1952, Greece joined NATO and has been a strong partner in international fora, as well as in bilateral economic, energy, trade and investment and defense and security initiatives. Greece was the hardest hit European country after the 2008 financial crisis.

The IMF, European Central Bank and European Commission bailed Greece out for a total of €240 billion, yet the bailouts primarily serviced Greece's international loans. The debt crisis continues to affect the Greek economy, but Greece has made tremendous economic strides and shown resilience in the face of COVID 19.

Greece and the United States launched a 2018 strategic dialogue to bolster bilateral cooperation. And in 2022, the Greek Ministry of Foreign affairs announced its strategic plan 2022 through 2025 to strengthen global security, prosperity and peace. While safeguarding democratic institutions, human rights and fundamental principles of international law. We welcome Alexandros Papaioannou to discuss Greece's perspective on international security, energy security, migration and competitions with authoritarian hostile regimes.

 

>> HR McMaster: Alexandros Papaioannou, welcome to Battlegrounds. It's great to see you after so many months during COVID when we didn't speak, and welcome to Battlegrounds.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: General, the pleasure is all mine, thank you very much for hosting me today. I'm looking forward to an interesting conversation.

>> HR McMaster: Well, when we last spoke, you were standing up sort of a national security advisor position in Greece.

Now you're gonna talk to us about the Greek perspective on our world from Geneva in your new posting. I hope the transition went well. And, of course, we have much to talk about, I think Greece is ideally positioned to give us unique insights because you look outward from the Mediterranean.

And I remember your old foreign minister, Nikos Kotzias, who I got to know when I was national security advisor, whom I called my favorite socialist, he was a really fun, affable guy. We had some great discussions about it, and im really looking forward to todays episode. So I wondered if you might start just by sharing that perspective, how do you see the world from the Mediterranean these days?

Its been a rough few years going back to Greece, the financial crisis that you're coming out of, I think looking pretty strong right now. But there have been a series of crises in the Mediterranean and of course in Africa that's affected Greece as well with the migration crisis.

And now we have a war in Ukraine and the Black Sea region. But I'd love to just hear your perspective on how you see the world today.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, thank you, I mean, as you said, Greece has basically, let's say, the last three years has gone out of substantial economic and financial, and by the way, also social crisis.

And we had, and actually, as a matter of fact, just like everywhere else in the world, COVID struck, which also didn't help. Although I have to admit that we managed to address it in a rather, let's say, successful way, especially in the first stages when there were no vaccines and all these issues.

And we had, let's say, five fewer, let's say, people lost their lives than in other places in the world. But having said that, we are lucky or unlucky depends on which way to succeed, to be in a very interesting neighborhood. And when I'm saying interesting neighborhood, basically, we are at the crossroads, first of all, of three continents, that is, Europe, Asia and Africa.

At the edge, actually, of Europe, but really touching on Asia and Africa. And we are directly affected and we have a direct interest in developments in all these three continents. And just, I mean, very broadly, then we can dwell in one of these issues. First of all, let me start, of course, with the Russian invasion on Ukraine.

Ukraine, which was, let's say, a game changer for everybody in the world, and especially for us, it was a big change. And we took a very, how to say it, principled position because-

>> HR McMaster: And Alexandros, I should say, you're talking about 2014, as well as the renewed invasion of February 24th of last year.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Yeah, 2014 was actually the wake up call. I mean, the annexation of Crimea, actually, as a matter of fact, people tend to forget that it was the very first time that, actually, European territory from another country was annexed into another country. So that was the very first violation, let's say, with the annexation.

And by the way, we always say here in Greece, of course, the first, let's say, invasion and occupation of territory in Europe post World War II was not actually Crimea, it was Cyprus in 74, although many people tend to forget that. But 2014, as I said, was a wake up call, the annexation of Crimea, but also the proxy, hybrid war that sometimes was not so hybrid, that was taking place in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Where, as a matter of fact, also lived, and I say lived because they're no longer there, also a Greek community, people of Greek origin. And I was actually lucky enough to be able to visit that region a month before the invasion, I was there in January 22, in Mariupol.

 

>> HR McMaster: No, I think, of course, one of the reasons why territorial integrity is important to Greece is because there are others, Turkey in particular, who lay claim to Turkish territory. And I wonder if you might say something about the geostrategic competition with Turkey, how you see the situation now.

It's been quite a volatile time in the eastern Mediterranean as well, with Greece and Turkey and others laying claim to oil and gas reserves, for example. There are the long time contestation of Aegean territories like Kastellorizo, if I pronounced that right, in Rhodes, and so forth. So could you share with us just the tensions with Turkey, a fellow member of NATO?

And how you see the situation today and what you think the trajectory is going forward into the future? Of course, we're speaking on the eve of a Turkish election, scheduled for May. And elections, I think, still do matter in Turkey, even though President Erdogan has really taken control and his party have taken control of key institutions in Turkey.

But I'd love to hear your perspective on Greece and Turkey.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Okay, thank you very much, that's a very interesting question, but, exactly, let me go back, exactly. Ukraine was very important for us, and as I said, it's a principal position. Because, basically, we think that all countries in the world should abide by the principles of the UN Charter that respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states, Article 2, paragraph 4 of the UN Charter.

And this is also very important for us, because, precisely, we are facing, I would say, unfortunately, a direct threat from our eastern neighbor and also a fellow NATO ally, as you mentioned, Turkey. Which for several years now, unfortunately, has laid the claim that, actually, if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean Sea, that is, basically, the islands of the Aegean Sea, that this is what they call a casus belli, a cause of war.

So, basically, they are threatening, and this goes back into the mid 90s, so it's nothing new, unfortunately, it's almost 30 years old. Turkey, as a matter of fact, since, I would say the mid 70s, has gradually, through several different procedures, I don't need to mention, has basically contesting Greek sovereignty over its islands in the Aegean, as well as the sea between the Greek mainland and the islands.

And in the beginning, it started talking about control of the flight information region, so basically, the airspace, and then it started talking about search and rescue. So things that are not necessarily, let's say, linked to hardcore sovereignty or territorial integrity. But as I said, in 95, they laid a claim and they said, if you extend the territorial waters to 12 nautical mines, which, by the way, I think all the countries in the world have done.

I mean, it's part of the UN Law of the Sea that countries can have territorial waters that extend up to 12 nautical miles. So it's nothing done illegal, I mean, on the contrary, it's a definition of a legal act, Turkey is claiming that this is a cause of war.

Now, unfortunately, and this brings us, basically, to the more, let's say, recent past, these claims have taken a new dimension. Now Turkey is actually claiming even that the Greek sovereignty over islands in, as I say, the Aegean that have been given to Greece, some of them in 1923, some in 1947.

So we're talking about at least 75 years of continuous sovereignty. They claim that the sovereignty of these islands is contested. And this is actually a very worrying trend, because they take it a step further. They are saying that, basically, we don't have control, and that they might take action.

I mean, there were even some statements by Turkish officials which could be considered a bit, how to say it, interesting, I mean, to put it very mildly, interesting. Like, if you don't be careful, we will come at night and conquer your islands and stuff like that. Now, this is not the way that we see that an ally should be talking to a fellow ally.

On top of it, in a period, I mean, independently of the period, but on top of it in a period where we are facing a huge crisis, huge, I mean, in Ukraine. So we are thinking that this Turkish behavior is not, let's say, to put it again very mildly, responsible.

This is one of the issues that we're facing.

>> HR McMaster: I think, just for our viewers, Turkey is problematic, right, Turkey is an important country. I mean, if you just look where it is geostrategically and its important role in NATO, its bridge between east and west, its control over key choke points and really lying between Europe and Asia.

So it's disappointing for all of us to see some of Turkey's behavior, which includes, I know you're gonna talk about the territorial claims and the Eastern Mediterranean. But just for our viewers, in the last several years, Turkey's purchased S-400 missiles from Russia, for example, which compromises, potentially, some of NATO technologies associated especially with fifth generation aircraft, the F35.

Turkey has been kind of sitting on the fence a little bit vis-a-vis Ukraine in terms of buying oil from Russia, transiting Russian oil, while at the same time supporting Ukraine with some weapons systems and with some diplomatic support. And trying to be a force for good in terms of food security and grain shipments.

But Turkey has also now opened the door to Assad in Syria, has been encroaching into northeastern Syria in a way that jeopardizes the fight against ISIS. I mean, kind of the list goes on in terms of disappointing behavior by Turkey. And so this is a problem for NATO, for Greece, for all of us, I think, if Turkey drifts away from Europe and the West and drifts towards what?

I mean, I guess Russia, Iran, China, I mean, it seems to be a losing proposition to me. But I think we're at a turning point for Turkey, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the claims in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, and why that's so important to Greece.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, just to go back exactly on what you said, because this is very important. I mean, I mentioned about the trouble, I mean, lets say the challenge is that Turkey is basically, lets say, contesting Greek sovereignty in the Aegean, but this is just part of the wider picture.

And this is the other, the rest of the picture is that basically Turkey, especially over the last years, I have to admit, has developed into an expansionist, I can call it like that, foreign policy, where exactly? They are present in northern Syria, they are present in northern Iraq, so all their, let's say, land neighbors, and they're present with troops or proxies in Libya.

They're destabilizing also the situation there. So they have, and of course, they've been occupying part of Cyprus for 50 years now, and they have troubled relations with many other of their neighbors. They have been supporting Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia. So they are really, let's say, it's not just about, again, it's not about Greece and Turkey, it's not a localized thing.

It's basically Turkey trying to, let's say, extend its influence through, basically especially military presence in all its immediate neighborhood. I mean, the only country with which Turkey does not have, interestingly, let's say a kind of conflict on the border is Iran. Even actually, the Turkish friends, they say that the Turkish Iranian border is one of the oldest in the world, I think it's from the 17th century.

The only point in Turkey's borders where basically there's some tranquility. But what you mentioned, this is, I think for me, the biggest, let's say, challenge right now is that Turkey, while remaining a NATO ally, I mean, it's part of NATO. And I don't think, I mean, this is my assessment, I don't think that it will ever leave NATO, at least this is how I see it now.

He has exactly developing a relationship with Russia that is more and more of a concern, not just for Greece, but for the rest of the west. And you mentioned, I mean, first of all, they don't implement the sanctions that the west, the European Union, the US, by the way, other countries, including Japan, have done following the Russian invasion.

So, heavy sanctions, Turkey has been a safe haven for Russian, even oligarchs. Secondly, Russian investments, I mean, the biggest Russian investment in the world in general is actually, the Russian built nuclear plant in southeastern Turkey. So this is, it's a civilian, of course, nuclear plant but still, and this is a cause of concern.

And as you mentioned, I mean, well, friendly relations between Erdogan and Putin. They meet quite, and interestingly enough, Erdogan participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit a few months ago. So, he was there with the Russian leader, with the Chinese leader, I think the Iranian leader was there.

So it was a bit awkward to see a NATO country, let's say, being represented in that group. And of course, the purchase of Russian missiles, anti aircraft missiles, the S 400, which, I lived through that when I was working at NATO, as a matter of fact. And that was actually a deal breaker, because it was really, first of all, it's a NATO ally which is buying Russian weaponry.

That's the first time, at least to my knowledge, that this has happened. And secondly, it's putting into, let's say, it's jeopardizing NATO allies' security, both the F-35, but also NATO's missile defense system. So it was really, and I remember at the time, the NATO Secretary General, the current one, Stoltenberg, had tried, in many occasions, basically, and other officials, to persuade Turkey to, let's say, backtrack on this deal.

Because it was really, it is, really a huge challenge. So Turkey, and last but not least, and this is the other thing, since 2005, officially, Turkey has opened accession negotiations to join with the European Union. And let's say the troubling part is actually since 2005, instead of actually the relations between Turkey and European Union to be growing, the two, let's say, are drifting apart.

Turkey, unfortunately, is slowly but steadily moving away from the values that the European Union represents. So instead of actually getting closer and trying to accept the values, the principles that European Union, actually western nations have espoused, Turkey is drifting. And this is actually a very worrying trend. I mean, we are seeing a slow but steady drift of Turkey away from the west.

And even if institutionally, Turkey, as I said, may never leave NATO, in the end of the day, we are seeing Turkey moving away from NATO de facto. And this is something that, as I said, is a huge cause for concern, I think, for Greece, but also for the west.

 

>> HR McMaster: Yeah, Alexandrias, when I was National Security Advisor, I told our team that I think that would be the most significant shift in the geopolitical landscape since the end of the Cold War, and it would be profoundly against us. And we tried everything we could to try to bring Turkey back closer to the west and recognize that's where Turkey's future was.

But one of the things that troubled me about the Turks is the degree to which the Turkish-controlled media continues to spout anti-American propaganda. And I used to meet with Ibrahim Collin, my counterpart, with translated passages, and say, what's going on? I thought we were allies, how is this possible?

And I would try to use examples of other countries that had engaged in demagoguery and disinformation against the United States and said, hey, their track record isn't great. They wind up in a pretty bad place. Turkey, as you know, is experiencing hyperinflation. Turkey has a high degree of youth unemployment.

The economic remedies that they put in place have been the opposite of what economists say they should do, right? They've kept interest rates low and keep printing money, which is exacerbating inflation. President Erdogan just did another big give out to the population in advance of the election in May.

What do you think the trajectory is in Turkey? I mean, 80% of Turkey's trade is with Europe. I mean, it seems like their own worst enemies with these policies.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: I think, yeah, I mean, economically, at least, yeah, they survived to a large extent, I understand. Because other countries, starting, I mean, with Russia or some other countries in the region, are just basically pumping money into the Turkish economy.

They're basically giving money so that the Turkish economy can survive, which is something that is completely artificial. It's not this-

>> HR McMaster: Gutter as well, we should talk about, maybe a little bit.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Yeah, so, it's not something that, as I say, it's a normal process, it's not like the Turkish economy, as a matter of fact, if there wasn't this external support, Turkish economy would be in even more dire constraints.

What I hear is actually precisely that a lot of the people, the middle class, are suffering. I mean, inflation has skyrocketed and, exactly official figures, which might be a 7 or 8% are not necessarily representing the reality on the ground. That's another also issue, whether the statistics that they're giving, the figures are actually the real ones.

But it seems like right now that basically President Erdogan is trying to do everything to make sure that he will win this election. So he's just pumping money, giving money away, giving subsidies, giving whatever he can to make sure that he maintains some support. I saw a recent poll, I mean, I just, today, I saw, but I don't, again, whether polls are, let's say, the numbers are to be trusted or not is an open question.

That was saying that Erdogan's Parties at 36% while the opposition is at 50%, so that's and I saw this, I think, this morning, which is an interesting perspective, I don't know whether this, as I say, figures are reflected.

>> HR McMaster: It could be true, you know, but, of course, what he's done is he's indicted his main opposition candidate, the mayor of Istanbul, and is trying to disqualify him from the election, which doesn't sound very democratic to me.

So I think he is feeling the pressure and, of course, in the last mayoral elections, he actually didn't like the result of the Istanbul election, demanded a second election, and then his party lost by an even wider margin. So I'll tell you, Alexandros, it does seem as if the AKP, this is Erdogan's party, is becoming less and less popular for good reason.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: It is, it's becoming less and less popular for many reasons and that's why also they have to rely more on the coalition partner, which is the MHP, which is actually the nationalist Party. They're not necessarily an islamist party, they're quite secular, but still, they represent a deep, strong, embedded nationalism.

And this, the combination of these is actually creating an explosive mix in the sense that. And this is actually our biggest fear, that because of internal, let's say, challenges, and because there's always the rallying behind the flag feeling that if they see that things are not going the right direction, they might try to provoke some crisis with another country.

It could be in Greece, it could be Syria, it could be somewhere else, I don't know precisely in order to, let's say, get support that the support that they're missing. And this is something that, for us, is something that we are really worried about, that this could happen in the next month.

We hope that it will not happen, but we cannot exclude it.

>> HR McMaster: Alexandros, I'd like to just talk to you more broadly about the broader geostrategic competitions. It seems like three former empires are trying to extend their influence and control. Russia, obviously, as we know, in Ukraine and in the Black Sea region, but also, I mean, all the way to West Africa and Libya and in Syria.

Of course, the Iranians have for decades now attempted to keep the Arab world perpetually weakened, enmeshed in conflict, so they could extend influence across the Gulf states and threaten Israel with destruction. And Turkey is playing in this game as well, trying to play an important role from the western Balkans, which we should talk more about and what Russia is doing there all the way, as you mentioned, to North Africa.

How do you think this plays out, this competition between three former empires who are using a broad range of means to extend their influence and to extend their influence at the expense of sovereignty of other nations?

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, to begin with, I mean, it's extremely worrying because in the end of the day, and I don't know to what extent also we, the west, have not been present enough because they have covered, especially in Syria, those three former empires.

They have covered the vacuum that has been left by basically the fact that we are no longer present there or that we didn't have a strong presence from the beginning and they have taken advantage of that. What is very interesting, and I see that, is that they are basically, in the end of the day, three strategic competitors.

They're competing for the same, more or less. I mean, I won't say the same, but still regions that overlap starting also, I mean, with the Middle East, with Syria, but you can look also at the Caucasus, Central Asia. So these are places where these three, as I mentioned, three former empires are strategic competitors.

But it's, what is very interesting and unfortunately scary is that they have, might they have found a modus vivendi, a way to live side by side. And putting aside, let's say, their differences for a time, they're basically kind of, they have conducted, especially in Syria, I've seen this kind of informal truce about who has a sphere of influence and how far they can go.

And sometimes, okay, this truce is being disturbed, I mean, and then there's some small, because, and in the end of the day, they never face each other. They use proxies on the ground, be it, I mean, Turkey.

>> HR McMaster: This is the clashes in Idlib a couple of years ago, for example, yeah.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Exactly and actually, so, exactly in Idlib, where basically Turks are supporting, let's say, some parts of the Syrian opposition mixed with radical islamic groups, the Iranians, of course, especially the Iranians and actually after the war in Ukraine, less the Russians. I heard that the Russians have reduced their foothold on Syria, which, by the way, has been to the advantage of Iran.

The Iranians are supporting Assad like they did since the beginning, but now they have more leeway because the Russians also are moving up but still they are strategic competitors. But as I say, they have found till, let's say, they want to settle their differences. They have found a modest revenge and interestingly enough, also the same thing has happened between Russia and Turkey in Syria, in Libya, where again, they, in the end of the day, they were supporting, originally opposing camps.

But they found a way of.

>> HR McMaster: This is Turkey who supports the government of national accord in the west and then Russia supports the forces in the east under General Haftar.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Haftar, yeah. Yeah, although the east also was supported and supported by Egypt, by the Emirates. I mean, there were other countries, there were other players and Qatar was also involved in the west together with Turkey.

So it's not, let's say as black and white, but still there was always, let's say, a balance, a shaky balance taking place. So, and they have even this Astana process, I think it's called that they have the three countries in Russia, Turkey and Iran talking about Syria among themselves, which is, again, it's interesting because Europe, the United States, other major players in the world are basically outside this thing.

And this is actually, in the end of the day, what will happen is going to be detrimental to our interests. And this is.

>> HR McMaster: And it's detrimental, of course, to the people of Syria who have suffered tremendously, the people of Libya and Alexander, this is one of the things I regret so much is that after the intervention in Libya.

The Obama administration, in an effort to avoid what they regarded as the mistakes of the Bush administration in Iraq, actually exceeded those mistakes by engineering a change of the regime and then really doing nothing, the United States and our NATO partners to shape the political outcome after the war.

And as you've already mentioned, when there's a vacuum, malign actors move into that vacuum. And I think that's what's been perpetuating the civil war in Libya.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Absolutely, I mean, the only reason I think that there's no more fighting right now in Libya is that both parties are completely exhausted, first of all.

And secondly, they have, let's say, de facto divided the country into two. And I mean, I've been to Libya on several occasions and it's like moving, as I say, officially, of course, it's still one country, but actually the west doesn't control the east and the east doesn't control the west.

I mean, even on basic things, it's not like people can drive from Tripoli to go to Benghazi or vice versa. I mean, this is so, and if people say like, okay, why should we care about that?

>> HR McMaster: Well, we should care about it because first of all, it's a missed opportunity, it's a vast country.

It's an oil rich country, but it only has had at the time about six and a half million people in the country in terms of population to secure and to get to a political outcome. And as our viewers, I'm sure know Libya has been. Not only a source for refugees pouring into Europe, but a huge transit point for refugees who are fleeing the instability and violence in the Sahel and the Maghreb regions.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Precisely, I mean, Libya is very important. As you mentioned, it's a very rich country. Although unfortunately, the people themselves, they hadn't ever taken advantage of the oil richness. The revenues have never been distributed, let's say in the way that they should. But that's another story. But instability in Libya, first of all, means basically that they're not controlling their borders.

I mean, there's huge migration or refugee flows emanating from Libya and as a matter of fact, they don't control. They cannot control or they don't want to control. There are stories even that the coast guard is actually assisting traffickers going especially towards Italy. I mean, it's a problem now but in the years to come, it's gonna become even a bigger problem.

And as you mentioned, you mentioned the Sahel. And so the Sahel, very poor part of, let's say, the region basically between Northern Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, including many countries that unfortunately are not democratic, including Mali, Chad. I mean, the only I think, let's say.

>> HR McMaster: Burkina Faso now has also.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Burkina Faso.

>> HR McMaster: Yeah, and just throwing out the French and brought in Russia's Wagner group, which the United States has just sanctions as a terrorist organization.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Precisely, I mean, the only country in the region, we were in Yemen a few weeks ago, I was there. And the president of the country, he was saying he was kind of the last man standing out because he was the last democratically elected leader of a country in the region.

He said he's surrounded by countries that had coup d'état, countries where basically terrorist groups, either homegrown or imported, are basically active because he mentioned, of course, Mali. He mentioned also Boko Haram in northern Nigeria. And all this is creating, including on top of it, population rise. I mean, Niger has 25 million people today.

In 2050, it's predicted it's gonna have 75 million people. And Niger, and I'm using this as an example, is the second poorest country in the world, the poorest actually being Afghanistan. And the bottom line is that 75 million people, if there is terrorism, if there's war, if there's famine, what will they do?

Well, they will have to move further north and that means basically through Libya towards Europe. So it's becoming, let's say, a massive security, social, humanitarian challenge that basically, especially the Europeans, we will have to look at. And it's just basically out on our gates. Libya is on the gates of Europe, I mean, it's really so close.

 

>> HR McMaster: And once these refugee crises develop, they can only be dealt with at an exorbitant cost once they reach your shores. I think what we've learned, should've learned certainly from the Syrian crisis, is that it is best to help to try to resolve those problems or alleviate the humanitarian crisis much closer to its origins.

And this is maybe the missed opportunity associated with a no-fly zone or security zone, for example, in northern Syria at the outset of that civil war. But Alexandros, so I wanna talk to you more about how these conflicts don't just stay contained in one particular area. And I wonder if you might share with our viewers maybe what I think is Russia's attempt to escalate the conflict in Ukraine horizontally into the Western Balkans.

Can you describe the situation in the Western Balkans and why that's of concern to you and to the leadership in Greece?

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, the Western Balkans, again, it's one of those, if I can call it like that, unfortunately forgotten region in the world. They were at the center of the world attention in the 90s because of the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia.

First Croatia, then Bosnia has a go and in the late 90s, Kosovo. But since then, people have tended to let's say, there's no fighting anymore. Well, at least there's no open fighting but that doesn't mean the situation is more stable. As a matter of fact, the problems that existed already in the 1990s, they're still there with us.

And what is really worrying us is basically that they could basically explode or implode at any time. I'll start with, at least for me, the biggest risk is Bosnia Herzegovina. A state that basically exists since 95 after the Dayton Accords but is a state that everybody admits is basically completely malfunctioning.

It's not functioning at all. I mean, we have two entities, the Bosnian-Croatian Federation and the Republic Srpska, two entities bringing the country together, and three ethnic Muslims, Croats and Serbs. And in the end of the day, I mean, there are like three different administrations in one country. As I said, it's not functioning and there is the tendency, of course, and that's something that people could say.

And there were some ideas being floated about border changing. So, for example, the Serbs would move in with, let's say, mainland Serbia, the Croats to Croatia. And of course, then we would have the issue of a small Muslim state. Now, this is a recipe for disaster because if you start redrawing the map of, let's say Europe's and redrawing external borders, I mean, you open Pandora's box.

And by the way, the other big challenge that we're having and again is, I wouldn't say forgotten but is Kosovo. I mean, Kosovo, I think it became independent in 2008, I think has been recognized by something like half of the countries of the world. It's not the member of the UN or of any other major or any international organization.

And the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina's on resolving issues on Kosovo is not going well at all. And again, there's even the talk about changing the borders. And I'll say again, this is a recipe for disaster. Because once you start redrawing the map of the Balkans, that first of all will mean more, let's say bloodshed, more fighting, and then you don't know where it's gonna stop.

Is it gonna be contained or?

>> HR McMaster: And Alexandros, there's nothing Russia would like more than to say that Kosovo was a sccess, right? I mean, there's no perfect solution to what was going on there. But the United States, NATO, our allies, I mean, we stopped what would have been a genocide there and brought peace and stability to generation now.

To see that reversed I think would be disastrous obviously, for the people of Kosovo, but it would be a way for Moscow to say, look, this is the west failing. This is the US and NATO failing.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: And by the way, sorry, I forgot exactly to touch on the Russia factor because this is very important.

Again, it's basically the Russians. And by the way, it's Russia, China, and Turkey. Those are the three, let's say, countries that are entering the Western Balkans in a very dynamic way and let's say somewhat unsettling way. And this is to a large extent again, the fact that we the west in general and Europe have basically forgotten that.

First of all, and this is something that we think it's a mistake, the European perspective of these countries of Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Macedonia basically has been stalled for many years. So they see the prospect of joining the European Union further and going further and further away.

And actually, some of them, they question whether they will ever join the European Union. And this means that basically their countries, I mean, are for grants. I'll give you as an example, Serbia, for example, Serbians are saying they were actually the first in the region to start accession negotiations to join the AU.

They have been very frustrated by that. And now they're saying, if the Europeans don't want us, Chinese are coming and investing heavily. China, for the moment, the presence is more economic. It's not about political. But then the Russians are there also. And the Russians are using all levers, whether it's culture, religion or politics, to basically create a stronger influence in Serbia.

They're doing it in Montenegro, less in Albania. They don't have such leverage. But still, the Russians are covering a vacuum. Then there is Turkey, which, because let's remember that actually, by the way, all this part of the world we're talking about was even 120 years ago, was part of the ottoman empire.

And they are trying to revive, let's say, their presence. And what is very interesting, but also very worrying is it's not like they want. And they're trying, for example, the Turkish Development Agency is actually distributing large sums of money to rebuild or to preserve Ottoman monuments in that region.

Now, what is interesting is it's not about houses, fortresses or whatever it is mosques. And this is, again, they're bringing, let's say they're trying to bring not just a more radical version of Islam back in the western Balkans, something that actually these countries have. There were Muslim populations in many of these countries, but that was never an issue of radical Islam.

And now it's becoming again and again and unfortunately, Turkey is playing a destabilizing factor.

>> HR McMaster: These are the Salafin, or the Salafi strain of Islam, which is a little bit related to Erdogan and the AKP, who are Naqshbandi Sufis. Now, Sufis typically are a very mild form of Islam, but the Naqshbandi version of Sufism is quite conservative, you could say radical the Salafi version.

And, of course, Alexandros it seems like a lot of this is being funded indirectly by Qatar as well.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Yeah, Qatar has been, I mean, has played a major role in, let's say, preserving the Turkish, first of all, economy, even more than Russia. As a matter of fact, Qatar has, well, it's the host of Al Jazeera they have supported the Muslim Brotherhood in many countries in the Middle East.

And they have been at loggerheads with many of their neighbors, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, but also with Egypt they have supported. So they have been playing a destabilizing role. And Turkey and Qatar had, let's say, developed a close relationship which could be also. And Qatar used, I think they see Turkey as a means of, let's say, exerting a global influence that they themselves, on their own, they won't be able, they have the money, but they don't have the means.

I mean, it's a small country with a lot of money, while Turkey is, let's say, bigger country that needs support and yeah, they are. And by the way, we are trying, and this is something that I heard, actually, when I was in the region that we, and this is something that Greece is also encouraging is other Muslim countries, for example, the United Arab Emirates.

To precisely invest in that region in order, let's say, to stop the radical Islam and bring a more moderate Islam. The Emirates, they have actually a center for radicalization called Hidaya. And we're trying to use all the means to basically bring a more, let's say, moderate Islam in that region precisely to avoid becoming, again, a safe haven for extremists.

 

>> HR McMaster: One of the other countries, of course, that is extending its influence through funding and loans and infrastructure development is China. And I know that China has invested in Greek ports and Greek infrastructure. Could you just share, what are your concerns about China's activity and its use of really a form of economic influence to advance its interests in the mediterranean region?

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, China, first of all, was not present in that region for a very long time. Actually, they were not ever. But now they are, let's say, becoming more and more present in the Mediterranean. They bought the port of Piraeus, or the main port of Athens. It has become, if I'm not wrong, the biggest or the second biggest port actually in the Mediterranean.

They have invested heavily there and they're using it as an entry point for their trade to Europe. And actually, now they have this initiative called the Belt and Road Initiative, which is basically they want to create highways. I mean, access ways either by road or by rail through Greece, but also other countries in order to reach the European markets.

So for now, at least, China is trying to, let's say, by the infrastructure. By the way, as I mentioned, China is also very present in Serbia and other countries. They are buying and they're contrary to the other countries, they are not visible. They're not trying to be visible.

They try to do that in, let's say, very supple way. And the other thing that I always say is that China is looking at the long game. They're not seeking, let's say, short term advantage or short term influence. They're really investing, thinking about the long term. And they are creating, let's say, a presence gradually that is expanding and that they might be able to use afterwards to exert political influence.

And by the way, many people have in the west, they have complained to Greece about selling its port to China back in 2013. And I remember the argument was always, yes, but at the time it was during the economic crisis, Greece was actually forced by its debtors to privatize several, lets say, big state owned assets, including the port.

And when they privatized the only bidder, the only country that was actually willing to, lets say, invest and even at the very turbulent period was China. So they really took advantage of situation which was created and they made a great deal out of that so.

>> HR McMaster: Alexandros, I would tell you, though, of course, some deals are too good to be true and I think that might be the case.

There might be some buyers remorse there in years to come. But I know that this is a point of contention between Greece and Germany in particular after the bailout. But I'll tell you, we don't have a lot of time left. And I want to start talking about Greece more.

How about the recovery that Greece has undertaken? I think that there has been a great deal of enthusiasm behind the economic growth that Greece has been able to achieve. Prime Minister Mitsotakis has an election coming up. He's quite popular it seems like many Greece, the vast majority think he's done a very good job.

Could you just talk about really how Greece has come out of that financial crisis and what you think the prospects are these days from an economic perspective. But also in some of the key initiatives that the government's undertaking, the green energy initiative, for example.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Okay, well, that's very interesting, actually, there are several initiatives.

One of these initiatives that I think that has transformed the country, and again, this is something that we see also. I mean, basically the citizens, the men and the people in the street is the digital revolution that is taking place in Greece, which is something that is not so much talked about.

But it's really becoming, by the way, one of the most popular ministers in the Greek government is the minister of digital governance because he has done. I mean, as I say, we have transformed a country that was very sclerotic, bureaucratic, a lot of paperwork, and moved everything, let's say, on the digital sphere.

So we have, and the tank is government, the government here has tried, and this is, I think, I mean, has succeeded to an extent. Of course, it's not just in three or four years that you can achieve all the results to make the country attractive for foreign investment.

And this is something that he has started doing and he's building on that. And by the way, when I'm talking about foreign investment, it's from everywhere, not just from Europe. We're looking at other markets, for example, or other countries, and we have developed strategic partnerships with several Gulf countries, including, for example, the Emirates in Saudi Arabia.

Which are slowly but steadily now thinking about transforming this strategic relationship, which was based on security, as a matter of fact, in the beginning, into also an economic partnership. So we are trying, I mean, the government is trying to make, let's say, the country attractive for investment. The economy has started exactly, precisely because there is some prospects for stability, including political stability, that helps also investors be attracted.

So it's not a basket case of failure, Greece is actually, and as somebody was saying to me, Greece is no longer in the headlines, Greece is actually boring because nobody speaks about it. And I said this is good news because the fact that we are not in the headlines, that means that things are working well, I said there are a lot of things.

And the other thing that is very important is Greece is trying to become, and this is an energy hub, both in terms of gas. And, for example, Greece has already an LNG terminal close to Athens and is actually building another one, northeastern Greece, which is gonna be very important in the diversification of supply of gas, especially.

 

>> HR McMaster: And for our viewers, I just want our viewers to just imagine the map. Think about all that Russian gas infrastructure flowing out of Russia into the Black Sea region, into Europe and into southeastern Europe. And now think about gas going outward from Greece in the opposite direction.

Its a really important initiative, and I'm very enthusiastic about that not only because of the energy supply that you'll provide, but the geostrategic impact of that Alexandros.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Precisely, and exactly, Greece is not an energy producer, we don't produce, although actually we started now gas exploration of the island of Crete in southwestern Greece, so between let's say Crete and Libya.

And we'll see, I mean, they say that they're promising results might be coming by the spring, we'll see. But Greece is a transit point for gas, both from places like Azerbaijan, but also by ships. So by ship LNG can be from the United States, from Algeria, from, you name it.

I mean, there is no, from Egypt, actually, Israel and Egypt are also producing gas. So, and this is very important because precisely, we help also other countries, not just Greece becoming more independent of Russian gas, but also countries like our neighbors, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia. The other thing, of course, is exactly, you mentioned clean energy, we are making a lot of efforts to move, I mean, to zero emissions by 2050.

This is, of course, the target, although unfortunately, the crisis that, the situation we're facing right now is a challenge. But clean energy, Greece has a lot of potential, and we're trying to do that. Solar energy, wind energy, I mean, we have really things that we can take advantage, actually, the Aegean sea is one of the seas where there's wind blowing all the time and sun.

Well, we're not.

>> HR McMaster: I think the statistic is 50% of your energy for renewables already, is that, I think that's right.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: It might be, I don't know if it's 50%, but it has grown substantially, yeah. And we have even actually a project in an island in southeastern Greece called Astypalaia, which we're transforming together with the German company, into a green island where basically all the cars, for example, and the local buses and everything will be replaced by electric cars.

So there will be no, let's say, petrol engines on the island, and we're gonna use this as a test case to see how we can expand this, we are really doing that a lot. But if I may just also, and this is related also to what we're discussing about energy.

And I just wanted to highlight also another very important factor, which is also the developing bilateral relationship between Greece and United States, or United States and Greece, which, I mean, right now we are going through, if I can call it like that, a honeymoon. I mean, the relationship between the two countries is the closest it has been in many decades, definitely far, far above the last, let's say, four or five decades, just to give you an example, in 1990.

So just at the end of the cold War, United States and Greece, they signed an agreement, it's called the mutual Defense cooperation agreement. Which provided for American presence on the ground, use of Greek bases for military, for US military, well, navy, air force, land forces, the army. And this agreement was actually amended twice in the last three years, it was amended,-

 

>> HR McMaster: In 2019 and in 2020, yes.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Exactly, and the reason why it was amended because, precisely, we wanted both countries wanting to increase the American foothold in Greek territory. And interestingly enough, one of the bases, or Greek, let's say bases, where actually the US has invested is the port, precisely, of Alexandroupolis.

It's the port I just mentioned, where we're constructing an LNG terminal. Now, why this is important, I mean, I don't have a map here, and unfortunately, but it's northeastern Greece, close to the border with Turkey. But it provides a direct access point to Bulgaria, Romania, and then further north to central and eastern Europe, why this is important?

This is important because in case of crisis, like now, for example, American forces, or allied forces, for that matter, can move very easily up and protect, let's say, NATO's eastern flank. And that without having to go into the Black Sea, which is, well, it's becoming more and more of a challenge.

First of all, because of Russian presence in the Black Sea, which unfortunately has increased substantially, the strategic importance of, let's say, Greece has increased to US eyes, that's one of the base. The other base, of course, is Souda Bay in Crete, which is, again, it's projecting, let's say, in the whole of the eastern Mediterranean, again, a very troubled area.

It's very interesting that the 6th Fleet that had, let's say, substantially retreated or retreated, not being so present in those waters now, is becoming more. I mean, we see aircraft carriers, for example, in Souda Bay, something we hadn't seen for US aircraft carriers for many, many years. So I think that this is also a very important development, and, Just on the symbolics, and then I will stop with that.

The symbolism was actually 1990, the agreement was signed by the then Greek foreign minister and the then US ambassador in Athens. The two amendments were signed, both amendments were signed by the successive secretaries of state, Mike Pompeo and Tony Blinken and the Greek foreign minister. Which even in that is just the symbolism of whose signs shows the importance of these agreements.

 

>> HR McMaster: I really think Greek, US relations are on the upswing and getting stronger every day and it's something we ought to celebrate. And Alexander, I guess what I'd like to do is just ask you a couple of final questions here. What do you think more we need to do to strengthen the US, Greek relationship and cooperate as we've described all the problems that we're facing together.

And then maybe you have a message for Greek Americans. As you know, there's a really vibrant Greek American community in the United States, thank goodness, because it's the best food that you can have. We have two great Greek restaurants in Palo Alto, for example. So I'd like to just ask you what your message is for Americans in terms of how to strengthen and deepen our relationship and then maybe for the Greek American community as well.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, for the, let's say the bilateral relationship, I think that we need, and we're doing it. It's not like we're not doing it, but we need to expand, let's say, the cooperation of the people to people level, the government to government level. We have reached really a very, let's say, high point.

But now we need to focus more on cooperation between, well, academic institutions, for example, the economy. I mean, we are very happy to see many more American tourists actually coming to Greece, so there's more the people to people engagement at all levels. As I say, the economy, again, US investments in Greece are not so substantial.

I think that this is something that is not reflected in the excellent relationship that we have at the government level. And mind you, one of the issues also that we are trying to invest is of course, engage also Congress, cuz we think that is also okay. One thing is our relationship with successive administrations, like successive Greek government.

But the other is also the Congress who represent, in the end of the day, of course, it's another representative of the people. When it comes to Greek Americans, by the way, I've got family in the United States. A brother of my father emigrated to the states in the fifties, I have family there.

A cousin of mine was actually a US Navy officer for several years, so I'm very proud of him and the family. So it's not something that it's far away from me. What is very important, and I think that this is, we have to realize, especially us in Greece, is that the Greek American community has evolved substantially.

It's a different community than it used to be, let's say 40, 50 or 60 or even 70 years ago. It's not, let's say the poor people had emigrated looking for a better future. Now they're much more embedded into the, well, they're part of the American society. They are American citizens, and they have some linkage to Greece.

And I think that we have to start addressing them as a bridge between the two countries while respecting this specific character they have. They are proud to be of Greek origin, but they're also proud to be American citizens. And I think this is something that we always need to be aware and encourage.

 

>> HR McMaster: Alexandros, I think it's the greatest strength of our country, is that we do attract people from around the world who then become just a great source of strength for America, as well as a bridge back to the countries from which they came. And I'll tell you, I'm going to do my part and plan a vacation to Greece here in the next year for sure, but.

 

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: You're more than welcome, if I could be of any help, I would gladly host you.

>> HR McMaster: Alexandros Papaioannou, I can't thank you enough on behalf of the Hoover institution, on behalf of our viewers, for helping us learn more about battlegrounds important to building a future of peace and prosperity for generations to come.

It was great to see you, thanks for joining us.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Well, general, I mean, I have no words to thank you for giving me this opportunity. It was really a very interesting and extremely interesting discussion for me. And thank you for giving the opportunity to talk about this troubled part of the world.

 

>> HR McMaster: Well, I'm glad Greece is there in the middle of it. Thank you, Alexandros.

>> Alexandros Papaioannou: Thank you very much general, thank you.

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