Steve speaks to Harvard professor David Deming about his recent research on the use of GenAI tools in the workplace and what it means for productivity. David’s evidence suggests that GenAI tools have already boosted U.S. labor productivity, with more gains to come. They also highlight the role of unfettered market-based experimentation in sorting out where GenAI tools work well, and where they don’t. In closing, David explains why he titles his substack newsletter Forked Lightning.
Recorded on February 19, 2025.
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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
David Deming is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Faculty Dean of Kirkland House at Harvard College. He has authored noteworthy and award-winning research on the long-run impacts of schooling, soft skills, social mobility, and many other topics. In 2018, he received the David N. Kershaw Prize for distinguished contributions to the field of public policy and management. In 2022, he received the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to labor economics. In addition to his scholarly research and his substack newsletter, he writes for the New York Times and The Atlantic.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
- Forked Lightning, David Deming’s substack newsletter
- David Deming’s articles in The Atlantic and the New York Times
- The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration
- The rapid adoption of generative ai
- “The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market”
- Hybrid corn: An exploration in economics of technological change
- Do not go gentle into that good night, poem by Dylan Thomas
- Organizational Technology Ladders: Remote Work and Generative AI Adoption” by Gregor Schubert
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- Follow David Deming on X: @ProfDavidDeming
