Political commentators agree that immigration was an important issue in the 2016 elections. But in a puzzling feature among the electorate, and contrary to expectations, Trump support was strongest in rural areas where few immigrants lived. Analysis of two surveys with different questions shows that alongside immigration, the issue of gun control was equally important to voter choice, providing a partial explanation of Trump’s strength in immigrant-scarce rural areas.
Takeaways
- In 2016 Donald Trump adopted a strongly anti-immigrant platform in both the primaries and the general election campaign.
- After the election, some commentators noticed a puzzling feature among the electorate: support for Trump was strongest in rural areas with few immigrants.
- A possible explanation is that in rural areas people have lots of guns. Although gun control was rarely mentioned in the 2016 campaign, surveys showed that it ranked highly alongside immigration as an important issue in the public’s view.
- Analysis of two surveys with different questions suggests that gun control was equally as important as immigration to voter choice in 2016.
Did Gun Control Ruin Hillary Clinton’s Best Shot at the Presidency? by Hoover Institution
