This is a story of the sea. It comes from the place where sea stories began, the Mediterranean realm of Homer’s Odyssey and of the naval battles of Salamis and Actium. It’s a story of pluck and ingenuity but also of the dramatic changes that technology is bringing to war, from the skies above to the seas below.
The protagonists are Greece and Turkey. The time is the summer of 2020 to the present, although the conflict has roots in earlier events. The diverse and complex dynamics of the region offer many causes for crises. But in this case, the catalyst was fossil-fuel exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, both off the coast of Cyprus and elsewhere.
Since the discovery not long ago of undersea gas and oil reserves in the area, the stakes have grown high. Greece and Turkey, like other countries in the region, each claims an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a concept stemming from the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1982). Greece, the European Union, and recently the United States too have called on Turkey to join UNCLOS in order to resolve the conflicting claims. Turkey argues that the treaty unfairly allots large EEZ’s to small Greek islands off the Turkish coast. The United States has not ratified the treaty either up to now, although that may change under the Biden Administration.
Last summer Turkey sent out a research vessel to do seismic research in the area, accompanied by warships. Greece responded by sending out a large deployment of its fleet. Greece’s submarines proved decisive, and they dominated the zone. Undetectable by Turkey, they allowed the Hellenic Navy to control key choke points. Meanwhile, above the surface, an accident took place, a collision between a Greek and Turkish frigate. Fortunately, there was no further escalation, and the Turkish frigate returned to port to repair damage. So ended the confrontation of summer 2020, with Greece getting the better of things. But the conflict isn’t over.
Both sides have been rearming. Greece has purchased warplanes from France. The Greeks aim to buy more anti-sub helicopters, and they are modernizing their F-16 warplanes. Greece is also renovating its frigates and updating the northern Greek port of Alexandroupolis, which lies near the border with Turkey.
The Hellenic Air Force has a clear advantage over its Turkish counterpart. Things are different at sea, however. Greece has doubled its defense budget, but Turkey’s defense budget is more than twice as large, and it has a bigger and newer navy. It will soon be launching the largest ship in its navy, Anadolu (Anatolia), a Spanish-designed light aircraft-carrier.
But submarines represent the most important development in Turkish naval affairs. Currently Greece has 11 submarines and Turkey 12. All of the vessels are German-designed; indeed, Germany is perhaps the world leader in the submarine market. The most up-to-date submarine is the 214 class. They can stay underwater for three weeks or more, instead of only two–three days for earlier vessels, and are difficult to detect by sonar. It was these ships that gave Greece its edge last summer. An interesting sideline: labor troubles and budget shortfalls almost kept the ships from being built, but the Greek navy took matters into its own hands and used its own personnel to complete the submarines and launch them. It was a very unusual but effective step.
Greece has three 214-class submarines but its monopoly is over. Turkey has purchased six of these subs from Germany. One will be ready in 2022, and the others will be rolled out over the next few years. The result may shift the balance of naval power in Turkey’s favor.
Greek sources, to be sure, point to the strength of the Hellenic Navy in fast-attack missile warships equipped with anti-ship missiles as well as with extremely fast gunboats. They also note the existence of anti-access/area-denial weapons in the Greek islands. Not least, they point to the extreme complexity of the Aegean environment with its many islands and islets and variety of seawater layers. The Aegean is difficult to navigate for anyone unfamiliar with it, and Greece has much more experience of the Aegean than does Turkey.
The Eastern Mediterranean, however, presents a more level playing field for the two navies. Turkey, furthermore, has another weapon in its arsenal. The country has engaged in an impressive program of building unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s), which were game-changers when used by Azerbaijan in its recent war with Armenia. Such UAV’s could saturate Greek naval air defenses in a future conflict.
Given the rising military tensions, it is good that the two sides resumed talks this year, and that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis met at the sidelines of a NATO summit in June.
The end of the story has not yet been written. There may be hope yet for the restless sea.
Barry Strauss is a military historian and classicist at Cornell University and the Corliss Page Dean Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
