Lithuania: A Baltic Perspective on European Security

>> H.R. McMaster: America and other free and open societies face crucial challenges and opportunities abroad that affect security and prosperity at home. This is a series of conversations with guests who bring deep understanding of today's battlegrounds and creative ideas about how to compete, overcome challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and secure a better future.

I am H.R. McMaster, this is Battlegrounds.

>> Presenter: On today's episode of Battlegrounds, our focus is on the Baltic nation of Lithuania. Our guest, Gabrielius Landsbergis, most recently served as Lithuania's Minister of Foreign Affairs. Minister Landsbergis was elected chairman of the Homeland Union Lithuanian Christian Democrats in 2015, a role he served in until October of 2024.

In 2020, Landsbergis became the Minister of Foreign Affairs under the leadership of Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte. Landsbergis previously held roles at Lithuanian embassies in Belgium and Luxembourg, as well as at the Office of the Government. Landsbergis has been a member of the Seimas of Lithuania since 2016 and is actively involved in the European Council on Foreign Relations.

He holds a master's degree in International Relations and Diplomacy and a bachelor's degree in History from Vilnius University. Lithuania is positioned in a strategic location along Europe's northeastern border. Founded in the 13th century, the Grand Duchy became a powerful state, peaking in the 14th century when its territories spanned from the Baltic to Black Seas.

In 1569, Lithuania entered a union with Poland, which lasted until the late 18th century. Beginning in 1772, the three neighboring powers, Russia, Prussia, and Habsburg Austria partitioned the state, which disappeared from the map in 1795. Russia took most of Lithuania's land and imposed policies of Russification, including the shutting down of Vilnius University in 1832.

Lithuanian resistance to Russian oppression sparked the Lithuanian National Awakening, a sustained movement to preserve Lithuanian language, culture, and identity. By late 1915, Lithuania fell under German military occupation. Although Lithuania regained independence In February of 1918, the country remained under occupation, with the Germans slowly withdrawing following the November 1918 armistice.

In World War II, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union annexed Lithuania, eventually resulting in its incorporation into the Soviet Union. Lithuanian partisans fought against Soviet domination until the mid-1950s when they were captured and executed. In 1990, Lithuania became the first Soviet republic to declare independence amid the the Singing Revolution, so called because it began at a 1988 rock concert in Estonia.

In 2004, Lithuania joined the European Union and NATO, affirming its commitment to European integration and Western alliances. The United States and Lithuania maintain a strong relationship, rooted in shared democratic values and a commitment to stability in Europe. In the 1990s, the United States signed various agreements with Lithuania to protect bilateral trade, regional security, and bilateral investment.

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Lithuania has been an outspoken advocate for Ukraine. Supporting the country through military aid, training, and robust diplomatic efforts in response to Russia's full scale invasion in 2022. Lithuania has also taken a bold stance on China, allowing Taiwan to open a representative office under its own name in 2021, a move that sparked diplomatic and economic retaliation from Beijing.

The United States collaborates closely with Lithuania on defense, cybersecurity, and energy diversification, as Lithuania works to decrease its dependence on Russian energy. We welcome Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis immediately following his departure from government, as a new coalition governs Lithuania. To discuss the country's role in countering authoritarianism in Eastern Europe and the future of US-Lithuanian relations amid growing geopolitical tensions.

>> H.R. McMaster: Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, welcome to Battlegrounds. Thank you for joining us on your first day out of office, and thanks especially for the tremendous job you've done. I think you're strengthening our resolve to confront Russia and doing so really all across Europe, but in the transatlantic relationship as well.

Hey, welcome, great to be with you.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Thank you so much. Thank you for invitation, it's a real pleasure.

>> H.R. McMaster: Hey, let's just jump right in. And why don't we begin since you're out of government now and can say whatever the heck you want, is talk maybe about Lithuanian politics? You've just wrapped up your time as foreign minister, as I mentioned. And I'd like you maybe share your thoughts on the new coalition in Lithuania and the obstacles they face, maybe the opportunities they should take advantage of. Maybe kind of address some of the concerns that there have been about the new center left government that's led by the Social Democrat Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas.

And including a party, though, which some people are concerned about, a party that's been accused of anti-Semitic statements. So maybe take us inside of Lithuania, what happened during the election? How do you see the future of the government and how are they gonna deal with the challenges and opportunities they're facing?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Well, okay, let's start with the easy, but not so easy as well questions. So in Lithuania, honestly, we have a tradition. We call it tradition so that for 30 plus years, every single time when there is an election, the government is punished. And I would associate that as well to them just political dynamics, new democracy as rebuilding our country, but as well to our political system.

That means it's easy for the voters to gang against the party that has been in government for four years. And this is part of the thing that has happened during this election as well. It's not entirely big surprise that this happened. And when it comes to the emotions in the street by the voters, I think that it has been tough four years.

We've faced so many pressures by Russia, by Belarus, by China, and the whole war in Ukraine. I mean, people are looking for somebody that could promise them, not deliver, but promise them a bit calmer four years. And we probably missed somehow and we're not able to convince that you will have to continue doing most of the things if you want to continue being safe.

So that was our loss. And as you've said, center-left party, Social Democrats won the election. And yes, you're very right that they chose a coalition partner, which is a totally new party in Lithuania that was formed just this July. And it has, well, rather strange leadership, I might say, which got Noticed this year because of actually building their electoral campaign on very strong anti-Semitic statements.

And it reached the point where Constitutional Court actually named the party leader systemically anti-Semitic.

>> H.R. McMaster: How that will affect the work of the government, well, it's soon to say, I mean, obviously it won't be an easy ride, that's for sure.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Trying to convince the partners that why and how this can work in the modern 21st society in Europe and in our transatlantic partnership as well.

But it's their job now to try to convince that this is somehow acceptable. I personally find it distressing because certain elements of the campaign, this is the same thing that we are seeing now, for example, in Romania.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Very inflammatory statements amplified by social media, specifically TikTok. And a meteoric rise, basically from nowhere to what they have about 20 seats in the Parliament, which is a significant group, a third largest group in the Parliament, imagine that, because they started just this July. So it's an interesting and rather I'd even say scary phenomenon in Europe.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, let's talk more about this, right? So maybe we can zoom out to Europe overall, we could talk maybe about some of the big changes in the larger European countries and politics. We have shifts in the governments in the UK, the collapse of the government in France, in Germany, there's gonna be a new coalition.

But as you alluded to it, Southeastern Europe in Bulgaria, recently in Romania, there's been a lot of Russian involvement, subversion of elections. Of course, your country's been the object of that since Putin took over in the very least, maybe even before that. So really over for 24 years, Russia has been subverting your sovereignty, what are you concerned about this? We saw obviously, in Moldova as well, right? The effort to manipulate the vote on European Union membership not necessarily in Europe, but in Georgia, right? That same kind of political subversion is underway, even earlier, Slovakia in that election. So can you just maybe describe to our viewers how you see the political dynamics in Europe in context of Russian subversion, but also in terms of just European resolve.

Especially in the area of foreign affairs, the determination, the resolve to stand up to Russia, to confront Chinese economic and aggression, and so forth?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Well, no, excellent question, really, when I look at the map, there are not too many points of optimism in Europe. Honestly, where you put your finger and you find a government in transition, a country with no government, a government with huge internal problems. And I mean, Europe is a difficult mechanism as it is having to have a consensus on most of the questions among the 27, it's already-

>> H.R. McMaster: And of course I didn't even mention Hungary, right?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, even without an instability, it is very difficult to have a strategic approach and long term planning and stuff like that because it's just a very difficult mechanism. And now then you suddenly have German elections coming up, France now currently without government. And kind of the countries that would form an engine, not just economic, but also political and geopolitical, for better or worse of Europe, now, they're in a very tough position, so that's one element.

Now, you've rightfully mentioned that we see Russia being interested in election or electoral processes in Europe. We did not have any reports in Lithuania to know that this is a fact in our case currently. So I have to stress that even though certain elements do ring a bell and we're monitoring what is happening in Romania.

And again, as I mentioned certain similarities do look apparent. But kind of I was trying to look for a metaphor, what does it look like? So I remember during the Cold War, Europe and United States, we're looking for instruments how to spread message of democracy not necessarily influence elections.

So that people who are unable to reach the information that they would be able somehow to hear the Voice of Freedom. And we had Voice of America, we had Voice of Europe, Vatican Radio, and kind of these were from our point of view, benevolent instruments of spreading the message of democracy and freedom, right? Now, you have TikTok.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: When.

>> H.R. McMaster: Who knows what's in that algorithm, right? Who knows what's in there?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, exactly.

>> H.R. McMaster: It's controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, it's kinda crazy.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, and it feels like we used fireworks, right, to spread the message and they use scalper.

>> H.R. McMaster: Right, yeah, no, absolutely, yeah, right.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: They insert the message right where in a way where it sticks, where it clicks, and it's really scary how sharp it can be. Where you basically have candidates coming out of nowhere, being elected with very strange notions without a political program, without any real promises and kind of the policy surrounding them.

So it is-

>> H.R. McMaster: Cuz it is cognitive warfare in a lot of ways, I would call it, cognitive warfare.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Exactly, so it adds additional worry for the way the continent functions right now. Romanians are doing good job at least from my perspective, I mean, they're building resilience, they're pushing back, they're really showing that it's not okay to take over a country.

And I would assume that the fight will go on, and I hope that the pro-Western, and then strong pro-freedom, pro-transatlantic, pro-European, Romania will continue standing. Now, you mentioned we have-

>> H.R. McMaster: We have to learn from their experience, I'm thinking about your experience, too, in Lithuania. I mean, you were the forefront of this, when Estonia was the main focus of cyber naval disinformation warfare and cyber attacks, the denial of service attacks, they became kind of a model of cyber security. And I'm thinking of Finland, and Finland has that center for countering Russian subversion and hybrid warfare. So we have to all work together on this, because I think it's pernicious, but it's not unprecedented, Gabriela? So I'm thinking of this book by Thomas Rid called Active measures, right? And the old Soviets, they were doing similar activity but not enabled, as you're mentioning, by social media and TikTok and other platforms.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, absolutely I mean one of the things that we have to, as, as you completely rightfully say, that we have to come out of the stronger this is, I'm a bit worried that we're wasting good crisis, so to say, right? That I would really like to know that after this geopolitical storm in European continent is over that we actually come out stronger, better prepared for whatever would come next.

And countries like, like Romania and other countries in eastern flank, they, they do show leadership in this, and I believe that one of the things, if, for example, taken now, Romanian election. If we were to come out with a rule book, how Europe can deal, how the west can deal with algorithms or especially the ones that are run not by friendly states, companies from friendly states, I think that would be an excellent outcome.

Right, so that we know and this was the last time that you've used that against us. We know we see and this is not going to work any longer, that would be the excellent outcome because then, and you mentioned at the beginning, you mentioned Lithuania. Indeed, the first attempts to influence election in our case happened basically in 2000s.

This is how early Russia started testing its weapons buying out ads in what was then printed media just the only media that we would have.

>> H.R. McMaster: Protests, right, trying to incite big protests and create some political violence.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, so we went a long way and I now can say that Lithuania has gotten more resilient.

It's not so easy to employ those instruments that were at the beginning, they were effective in 2000. Now when it comes to the modern instruments, take social media, I think we're still developing our, our toolkit for resilience and this has yet to happen. Now, you mentioned Moldova, so they slipped through the door. Honestly, that was a good outcome, I'm very happy that.

>> H.R. McMaster: Just for our viewers, we're talking about the vote to pursue accession to the European Union, which barely passed in an environment of massive Russian subversion.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, I mean, so it fwas unny that we were having our own election in Lithuania. And myself and my team and so many people inm Lithuanian political sphere were checking Moldovan electoral page reviewing it and then kind of refreshing it so that to know the result. It was really scary, when you think that the country could have been lost geopolitically to Russia with no apparent future.

So I'm glad that it didn't happen, I'm glad that pro European group has won and I'm I would like to calm myself even though I'm not yet there that this is it, this is, they're on the right track. They been too many times back and forth, so I wish for their own stability and well, being that they're now not going to shift anymore and obviously that the last point is Georgia. I mean this is as the best name for it, it's a battleground currently and battleground between the West and Russia that is happening there. And the government, the current government that the president, their president calls illegitimate because of basically stolen election, clearly has driven the country from the, from European, from NATO path back to Russia's fold. And those brave men and women in the streets protesting for days on, I'm not sure how many, almost two weeks now, the protests are ongoing. They are the ones trying to pull the wheel back and they need all the support that we can give them, this is the fight of their lives.

>> H.R. McMaster: Absolutely and so what are your ideas, how do you support these groups that are advocating for their sovereignty? Really, that's what's under assault, right, is the sovereignty of the people. So what more can be done to support sovereignty, to counter Russian subversion or Russian enabled information warfare?

But then also, could you talk about why some people in some of these places in Europe find kind of the Russian hyper nationalist, nativist narrative appealing?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: That's a good question, when it comes to the people, I do believe that giving them a voice is crucial. It's imperative that those thousands of people, and clearly there could be tens of thousands, this night in the streets of Tbilisi that they would have a voice that they would because for the government in Tbilisi.

 

For Putin in Kremlin, the best thing that they can have is that we don't listen to the people or they are not hurt. Right, because when you don't hear there is no then your consciousness is a bit calmer, right. So you don't feel forced to make a decision, so we have to counter that.

 

They have to have a voice, they have to speak out, and we have to provide any platform that we can that we're able to provide to them. Now, when it comes to why people somehow trust Russia, well, for some it's probably I would look even end of 19th century, beginning of 20th century, this movement, Russophilia, right?

When at the turn of the century, there was a strong belief in certain European capitals among the elite societies that Russia is truly European, thatit's just. It's just tiny bit different and if we spare more time, if we spare more attention we would be able to better understand it because, look, how wonderful it's music or literature is.

And then but the biggest problem is, and that frustrates me, is that whenever we talk about this, when we talk about this beautiful Russian literature that is in quite in many part is quite imperialistic. You tend to forget about all the captive nations that had to suffer at the same time, you were listening for an opera in our Symphony in Paris in nice buildings of Paris.

When our great grandparents were trying to preserve their language, trying to educate their children in the most horrible situations because our language was forbidden, we were unable to speak our language. So part of it comes from there and then in every century, in every decade, you find some good appeal.

Right, it's not a new tendency.

>> H.R. McMaster: There are always people, I prefer the term useful idiots in some cases. Like some major media figures here in the United States who sit down with Vladimir Putin and allow him to just spout on in terms of his disinformation and propaganda without challenging it.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, yeah. I mean, if we believe that there will be real justice for the whole situation that Putin created, well, history will remember those people very badly.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: If, if there is no justice, then the history will be written very, very differently. But it will be a very different, a very sad history for all of us.

>> H.R. McMaster: We're talking about somebody who has entered into an illegal war and has killed or maimed 700,000 of his own people, this is Putin, right? So,

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: Gabrielle, so I was gonna also ask you to talk more about, of course, we're talking a lot about disinformation, propaganda, subversion.

But, when I look at what's happening in Europe, it's really underreported. Russia is kind of at war with Europe now in a more explicit way. And I'm thinking of what some people are calling the shadow war. And from your perspective in the Baltic region, you see this, because this is where they're cutting undersea cables, they're conducting assassinations, they're attacking infrastructure.

They're putting incendiary, we think it's Russians. It's not 100% proven yet, but incendiary bombs on DHL aircraft. So maybe talk to our viewers more about the full range of Russian activity, because I don't think it's really reported that much in the west. Or these various dots are not connected in connection with Russia's sustained campaign against Europe and the free world broadly.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Well, I'm really grateful that you called it that way, that it's actually acts of war in most of the cases. The problem is that, and we would have to delve in deeper why we have this problem. Why we don't allow ourselves to call it as it is, why it is still problematic to call, it's an act of war or because I believe that the problem is that if you call it what it is, then it requires you to do something about it.

And I think that there are still quite a lot of people who believe that Putin is the one who can be, well, as we spoke, appeased, right? That means that if Ukraine would let go part of its territory, they will accept some of the conditions that Putin set up.

Then we won't have any of the activity in Europe. And that means that we won't need not to do anything, right? So we would have just slept through the whole activity. Ukrainians have fought for us, they were forced to surrender or anything, and then we'll be fine. That's my explanation where we are, because the first incident happened, I'd say even two years ago, they were minor. They were minor incidents. They were defacing a monument, a statue of Lithuanian freedom fighter or something like that. But then later on, we found out that is a Russian operation, probably not inside fear at this point, but to check their reaction, check how police works in these cases.

>> H.R. McMaster: Probing, I think the word is probing, right? They're probing weakness, yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, exactly. And this has happened in Lithuania, this has happened in Latvia, this has happened in Estonia. So they were checking, right, which country would react in what way and where they can go from there.

So from then on, we've seen number of activities, a huge number. I've addressed this in first in NATO ministerials and in European ministerials and all the bilaterals that I had, then part of the information was declassified. So I was able to go public with it. Like the attempted arson of one of the shopping malls in Vilnius, IKEA shopping mall.

There was an incendiary device put in the storage of a shopping mall, it exploded. But due to excellent work of the fire extinguishing systems, basically very high demands of IKEA when it comes to the security of the building. The authorities were able to stop the fire and nobody was hurt.

And the shipping wall was not that much affected. But basically, Russians tried to burn down the whole building. And I don't think that they were worried that there might possibly be people in it. So when I address this and when I talk about this, there's obviously a lot of concern, right, but nothing comes out of it.

I'm usually asked the question, so is there anything that NATO can do? Do you expect NATO to fight back or is it Article 5 and all the other things? I said, look, there has been, US showed a very clear example, the latest one, probably there would be more, and you would remember those better than I do.

But one was depicted quite vividly in the press, and it was known, it was about the colonial pipeline. In 2000 and 2020, it was attacked, the hack attack against, and it was stopped, unable to, you know, to pump oil. And then during the conversation between the President Biden and President Putin, it was told, as far as we are informed publicly as well, it was told that, look, this is a red line.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: This is our infrastructure. And you cannot just attack us infrastructure and expect that nothing will happen. We'll choose the time, will choose the place, will choose the method, there will be a retaliation. You asked for that. And as far as I know, no other attacks have happened on US soil in that magnitude.

This is, at least we were not informed, but many things just the leak and public is informed, right? So my answer was, if we're able to stop that in US, I think we would be able to stop the same thing where, if NATO allies would come together and send exactly the same message to, to put, look, we're a defensive alliance.

We will find means and there will be something that will, just one day you will try to turn on your phone and it will just not work. Your computer will just not work. And your staff will not work. And you will know it's us.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, this is really when we were developing a Russian strategy in 2017, one of the assumptions that we made is that, to deter Russia effectively, we have to impose costs on the Kremlin.

They are far beyond the costs that they factor in when they decide, Decide to take aggressive action against us. Now, we did it and we did it. I mean, in that first year of the Trump administration, President Trump sanctioned more Russian entities and individuals than the previous eight years of the Obama administration.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: Closed two consulates, he kicked out scores of Russian undeclared intelligence agents. And I hope that the new administration comes comes to that same conclusion that, hey, you can't allay Putin's security concerns because he has ambitions that go far beyond anything that's in reaction to what you do or choose not to do.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Exactly.

>> H.R. McMaster: And so I would like to just ask you about Ukraine again, just in particular. We've already talked about it a little bit.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: Could you maybe explain your argument for sustained support for Ukraine because of that war's connection to European security broadly. But also maybe also to the this connection to an axis of aggressors which we have seen coalesce to include China as another revisionist power on the Eurasian landmass who's declared its unlimited partnership with Russia.

North Korean troops now fighting on European soil in the first major land war in Europe since World War II. And then, of course, the support that Russia is getting not only from North Korea, material and manpower support, but from Iran, with the shahed drones and missiles. But so why is the, why is the war in Ukraine important, especially if some of our listeners here in America are skeptical about sustained US Support? What's your argument, Minister?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Well, the main argument is that first of all, it's Putin's ambition and it reaches beyond just the territories that he currently occupies. In 2021, just before the war, Russian Minister Foreign Affairs Lavrov, he clearly declared his ambition. Basically, he asked for security guarantees for Russia so that NATO has to provide security guarantees to Russia in the form of he said that NATO has to retreat to 1997 borders.

That in turn would mean that countries like mine would be left without NATO's protection or act of protection that we currently have. Because we have US Troops, and then German troops and Dutch troops, British troops are in Estonia, US troops are in Poland, and then so on and so forth, right? 

So basically his point was, look, either you go back or else and it tells you the level of ambition that he has. It goes beyond Ukraine, it reaches out to us, and it reaches into the heart of Europe. This is how he sees the world. The second argument is that usually hear this look, but NATO is like, what, 20 times stronger than Russia.

Russia's economy size is a size of Netherlands, I'm sure, I'm saying, yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: Economy is probably not as big as Texas economy anymore, right?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, it could be, could be, yeah. So I'm saying, yeah, absolutely. But he knows that, he clearly knows that. But he's betting not on testing NATO militarily.

He's betting on testing NATO politically.

>> H.R. McMaster: Sure.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: That we

>> H.R. McMaster: Psychologically, psychologically.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, yeah, so basically just, that he would intimidate us into not acting to fast enough or strong enough that basic or just being in a slow, reactive state where we're unable to push back on his first rhetorics, right?

So Ukraine now, for almost three years, basically defends big chunk of Europe by defending its own territory from a very clear possibility of Putin's increased aggression. And they've been doing, yes, with our help. With some of our help, but mostly because they're just that brave and that determined.

And I went seeing him for three years every single day, fighting off, as you say, Iranian drones, Chinese manufactured equipment, most drones now North Korean troops and armies of hundreds of thousands of Russian.

>> H.R. McMaster: About 8 million rounds of artillery from North Korea, too.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, yeah, this is, I mean, this is really, really crazy what they accomplished.

But the thing is that the fight is not over. I'm mostly worried about now is that there are some people who expect that it is possible just to basically bring the two sides together, and just allow them to talk. Anybody who has ever been in any sort of negotiations know that it's a test of not just will, but of strength.

>> H.R. McMaster: Right.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: In some cases, it's strength of will, but in the battle, it's a strength of how much equipment do you have? How strong is your army? How strong is your position?

>> H.R. McMaster: What's the reality on the ground, right? In terms of territory under control and so forth, yes, yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Exactly.

>> H.R. McMaster: Okay, so if you, one of your, a Foreign Minister of the United States or Secretary of State of the United States, George Schultz. Who passed away here at the age of 100 as a distinguished and senior fellow here at the Hoover Institution, he said that negotiation is a euphemism for capitulation unless the shadow of power is cast across the bargaining table.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, well I mean, I wish I was so eloquent with figuring out the phrase, but it's exactly what I'm trying to say, right, because it's the same table, right? If you expect the negotiating table, that it would be somehow different from the battlefield, it's the same table, and the better that your dynamics are, the better you fare in negotiations, the worse.

Well, then you will be forced to capitulate, to submit to give in, whatever. I mean, and now we, as west and with the United States leadership, we clearly have the ability to put Ukraine in a way stronger position than they currently are. It's just a matter of understanding it and taking this opportunity.

I believe that even the promise of continuous strengthening of Ukraine would start to change Putin's calculation.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, I agree.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: That's it.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, you're making me think of Ulysses S Grant, right? The famous US Civil war general who in one battle, he's in the rear of the battle, it's chaotic, there are casualties.

He thinks, God, this is so desperate. My arm is probably about to collapse. He goes to the front and then he sees general Sherman there, who became his right hand man. And Sherman is looking at the enemy, and the enemy is suffering many more losses. So Grant writes in his memoir that the distant rear of an army is not the best place from which to judge what is going on in front. And would you mind talking about the Russian side because Cuz Russia tries to portray the strength, but they've just been thrown out of Syria. And they've been taking what I think are unsustainable losses. Their economy looks like it's in shambles to me. They're sitting on piles of cash they can't convert.

They couldn't sell their bonds. They're spending 47% of their GDP equivalent on defense. They have a labor shortage. Is it possible that with sustained support, Ukraine can prevail here? I think it is. Could you, maybe coming from the Russian side? Cuz you're right there, right? You're on the board of Russia. You're looking into Russia almost literally. How do you see the internal Russian dynamics?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Look, as I said previously, I don't think that Russians are fighting us militarily, as in army versus army. They consider us a weaker political opponent, in the sense that in Europe, they will always have Hungary blocking our decisions.

They know that some country will have election. And we'll always be slower, and in their mind, weaker. This is what they're betting on. But in reality, I mean, if we ask them to show the cards, really open the cards, I don't think that they have good cards. Medium to long term, definitely no.

The point is that they're counting that we will fold first. And this is their calculation. And Syrian example is probably the best one, right? So nobody even dared to challenge Russians. Even Israelis, when you speak with them, right, one of the arguments why they weren't able to support Ukraine, they said, look, we need to maintain some sort of arrangement, let's call it, with Russians, because they hold Syria.

>> H.R. McMaster: No, I've written a lot about this in my last book. Please go on. And I argued with Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2018 about this, but please go on. I agree with you completely about this.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: So, I mean, and apparently there was nothing. There was a husk, right? That was gone in what? To a couple days, basically just collapsed. So then it makes you think. So how strong Russia is elsewhere, how strong Russia is in Armenia, how strong is it in Georgia, how strong is it in Maldives and other countries? How strong is it in Northern Africa, Central Africa?

I don't think it's strong enough. I mean, with concerted effort, with strategic goal, we would be able to push them out or help others to push them out. We don't necessarily need to be there, right? I mean, I'm not talking about military interventions, but political help, political assistance, basically just cool bluff.

You're just overextended, you're weak. But we have to be stronger. And I was speaking with a couple of my previous colleagues from European, let's say countries. And they said, look, Europe alone could make a promise to Ukraine that would say, we are going to provide you 100 billion euros worth of equipment every year until 2030.

If that is not enough, we will extend it. If the amount is too little, we will double it.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: And that would not break Europe. We have the capacity.

>> H.R. McMaster: And you know who else would love that? Is Donald Trump would love that. He wants. I mean, I think instead of trying to Trump-proof things, right?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: I mean, I think take the Lithuanian approach, right, what you're recommending from Europe. But also I should just point out Lithuania is spending 3.5% GDP equivalent on defense, right, well beyond the Wales pledge of 2%, right? So I think in many ways, you're an example for the rest of Europe.

And I think Trump's sort of fixation, and rightfully so, on burden sharing, if Europe steps up, I think Trump could be convinced with low-interest, long-term loans to also have a long-term promise of sustained support for Ukraine.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, and then imagine Putin's mourning in Kremlin when he would hear this sort of message.

>> H.R. McMaster: Right.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: That completely changes his calculation. And my God, I'm in this for long years of pain. It's like Reagan's Star Wars program, right, when he promised, look, we are going to spend billions, billions for something that you're unable to achieve. We'll see when we get there, how we'll get there.

But this is my promise to American people, but also to my enemies. And that was one of the things that actually changed the calculation in Kremlin, forced them to overspend, and then force them to bankruptcy.

>> H.R. McMaster: Sure.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: And then, I mean, so it's kind of one of those examples.

>> H.R. McMaster: You know what I love about Reagan, Reagan was asked, okay, well, then what's your vision for the end of the Cold War? You know what he said? Hey, we win, they lose, right?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: How about some of that sentiment? And again, not to be warmongering, but what provokes Putin is the perception of weakness, right?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Exactly, yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: And so some people think he's provoked by his insecurity. That's nonsense, right? Think of him as Catherine the Great without the hoop skirt. And what we need is something like the equivalent of the Lithuanian awakening in the late 19th century.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: More broadly, to say, hey, we're not gonna allow our sovereignty to be subverted. So Ash.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, I mean, and again, as you say, just declaring that our strategic goal is our victory against the axis of chaos. And we'll get there. Ukrainians now volunteering to fight for us, that's one thing. We have amazing partners in Indo Pacific who want to trade with us, who want to have strong connections to both sides, Europe and US.

We have amazing friends across the globe. We can rebuild and strengthen our alliances. And actually, we can win. We have all the resources for that. So we need more of this winners mentality, not looking inwards, not shying away from the greater task, but leaning in and going forward.

And I mean, you've mentioned a couple of times Lithuanian example. And whenever I speak about this in conferences or elsewhere, usually I hear this, but, 3.5%, yeah, but you're a smaller economy. And I would say, but how does it make it easier? Wouldn't our teachers or policemen or servicemen would like a higher salary?

That would just be spent on them rather to buy equipment and HIMARS and javelins and whatnot that we're procuring now, with those 3.5%. Of course, they would love that. So that means that you have to explain to your people every single time. And the explanation is exactly the same as you would have in any other country, in Western Europe or Southern Europe or any other country.

The explanation is the same, because it's just percentage. So it's never easy, but you just have to do. And for four years, we had quite Quite a difficult task, to explain to our people why it is so important to have so much money. You have to have trust in your mod, you have to have trust in the politicians who get the money.

You have to have an understanding of all social groups will not getting the money. And it's, yeah, in some cases it happens that you might lose election, but then you have 3.5%, and you are among the top three spenders in NATO.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, I think this is a really good point in terms of communicating with the public, educating the public what is at stake, right?

And what is strategy that can achieve the outcome you want, which is security. And as economists would say, I work with a lot of them here, certainly not an economist myself. They call securities a public good and something you have to spend money on. One of the things about the new government, I just saw the Lithuanian parliament today actually came out with a statement on China and China's relationship with Russia.

And it was, and I'm just gonna quote here from the statement. China's strategic partnership with Russia and the growth of its influence in Belarus is a threat. And it was a manifesto that came out today from the new government. I think that was encouraging, could you maybe talk about the connection between Russia and China, the connection between the war in Ukraine, the shadow war that Russia is waging against Europe.

And end the threat from the Chinese Communist Party in the Indo Pacific, but really globally. Because there are a lot of people in America, you hear Gabrielis, they say, hey, we have to prioritize, we have to deprioritize Europe and really focus on China. And I think what they miss is that complete connection between these two revanchist powers on Eurasian landmass of China and Russia.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Well, clearly, I mean the handbook is shared, the operational handbook is definitely shared. The geopolitical handbook is being shared. I see exactly the same tendencies among the Russia and China kind of, I think that they're learning from each other has been like that for decades, in the past as well.

I see now China as a country that loves to build the leverage, loves a good leverage. And whenever they see a chance that the country is in a weaker position asking for something from them, they will build on this. And now they clearly have a grasp on Russia.

Russians, what Putin was trying to avoid, Putin was trying to avoid that first economic collapse because of the sanctions, and stuff that is unfavorable to him. But the second thing is mobilization. He doesn't want, he would be able to mobilize a lot of people. But he doesn't want to go full scale mobilization.

And therefore he went to Iran, he went to North Korea, and obviously, he went to China asking for any sort of assistance. And when it comes to unmanned technology, this is where China stepped in. And I think that they are the main, one of the main providers of the technology know how and probably even the industrial capacity, the output.

>> H.R. McMaster: Absolutely, the hardware and equipment. It's really obvious, Minister, yeah, absolutely.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, so and now imagine how much leverage during the couple of last years China has waited on Russia. They would say, look I need this or I need that. And if you don't provide this to me, think about the drones that you're getting from, right?

What will happen to your battlefield and you probably don't want that. So clearly this is a simplistic way to look at it, but there's some sort of a modus operandi. What I'm worried about is and I would like to stress that, that there's, there are people in, in Europe who look not just favorably India, China, but in some cases naively. And when I hear that, look, let's invite China to solve Ukraine Ukraine issue for us.

>> H.R. McMaster: Issue that was what things that was blowing my mind is, the US Government saying, let's just ask China to with Tehran without recognizing almost that, I mean, they're doing this together.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah.

>> H.R. McMaster: Do this together, yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, and then imagine the price tag that would come with that request.

>> H.R. McMaster: Right.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: I mean maybe they one day will say, okay, well, maybe there's something that we can do about it. But that will cost you dearly. I mean, then you will never think about any tariffs.

You will never think about raising your finger on anything that we don't like because when it was existential to you asked for our help. So it's inviting a fox into a hen house, I mean.

>> H.R. McMaster: And I think what's related to that, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.

There's always a lot of talk about trying to separate Moscow and Beijing, and there's people are nostalgic for the 1970s, I think, because really- Different world. I think it's a different world. And what is to our advantage is to glue them together. Because when we pretend like they're separate, they use that against us, and cover each other.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Yeah, look, I mean, and we've been in some sort of a minor version of this game, our closest neighbor, Lukashenko, Belarus.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: He's been always playing this game with the west, like, if you promise me something, I might separate, I might be separated from, from Russia.

And we fell for this trap so many times in the past, and actually, every time, he would take the money, he would take the benefits, he would take reduced sanctions, whatever. And then the next thing you know, he sits in the flight to Moscow, and then he makes a deal with Putin again. And it's like, you just have to see them together, this is it, they're a unit. They're working together, collaborating together. And the only thing that they can get out of us is just kind of they will use against us.

>> H.R. McMaster: Yeah, he also promised Prigozhin a safe ride out. How did that work out? How did that work out? So, hey, what I'd like to do is, I mean, you've been so generous with your time. This has been so fun to have this discussion with you. Fun, maybe not the right term to use with what's going on in the world, but, hey, you are a real voice of clarity.

Honestly, I mean, I really have enjoyed getting to know you, and listen to what you have to say. I hope that even though you're out of government now, you'll continue to be a strong voice. Thanks for joining us here. But I'd like to just ask you, what else would you like to share with our viewers? As on your last day as Foreign Minister, what do you think people should know?

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: We're stronger than we think. We're stronger than we think. We have all the power that we need in order to prove, to tell friends and to our adversaries that you wouldn't bet against us, you shouldn't bet against us.

>> H.R. McMaster: Well, Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, I can't think of a better way to end on behalf of the Hoover Institution. Hey, thank you for helping us learn more about Battlegrounds, important to building a future of peace and prosperity for generations to come. What a pleasure, and thanks for your extraordinary service to your nation and to the world.

>> Gabrielius Landsbergis: Thank you so much, it was a great, great pleasure to be here.

>> Presenter: Battlegrounds is a production of the Hoover Institution, where we generate and promote ideas, advancing freedom. For more information about our work, to hear more of our podcasts or view our video content, please visit hoover.org.