Evaluating a New Generation of Expansive Claims about Vote Manipulation

Abstract: In the wake of Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election, acottage industry of conspiracy theorists has advanced ever more expansive claims ofvote manipulation, going so far as to allege that all American elections are subject tomanipulation—even in largely Republican states. In the extreme, these conspiracytheorists argue that candidates in U.S. elections areselectedrather thanelected. Weevaluate two recent sets of claims about vote manipulation that allege algorithms areused to shift votes towards preferred candidates. Even though these claims aredistinct, they fail for similar reasons. For example, both sets of claims assert that“unnaturally” accurate predictions of election results are evidence of votemanipulation, an allegation that is a result of predicting a variable with itself.Furthermore, both claims make easily refuted errors in logic and data analysis and inaddition misrepresent historical election patterns. While recent claims about votemanipulation areprima facieoutlandish, their effects on policy and the public arereal. Refuting false claims about vote manipulation is essential to ensuring thecontinued functioning of U.S. elections and American democracy more generally.

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