Welcome to the July edition of Issues Affecting American Democracy. Last weekend, President Biden announced that he will not seek reelection, and Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee. The weekend prior, former president Donald Trump was shot and nearly assassinated at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Amid this volatility, the United States faces a broad set of domestic and international challenges which the Hoover fellowship remains committed to addressing through scholarly analysis.
In this issue, Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow Benjamin Ginsberg and coauthor Bruce Cain assess how officials can help to restore confidence in American elections; senior fellow Justin Grimmer and policy fellow Tom Church talk through the relationship between election laws, voter turnout, and partisan outcomes; and Steven Davis, the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow, analyzes how work-from-home policies and artificial intelligence are likely to affect the economy and American workers over the next five to ten years.
FEATURED ANALYSIS
Restoring Confidence in American Elections
Benjamin Ginsberg and Bruce Cain analyze election policies through the lens of voter confidence in the American electoral system. Cain and Ginsberg consider arguments regarding election fraud through mail-in voting and corrupted electronic voting systems and provide context on redundant means of ballot and machine verification such as logic testing, signature verification, and post-election audits. The authors also address the common myth, encouraged at times by both major political parties, that increased voter participation in elections is bound to favor Democrats over Republicans. In reality, turnout’s effect on outcomes is more nuanced than familiar claims would suggest. The authors offer steps officials could take to increase trust, including greater standardization of some security policies across states and municipalities.
Click here to read the paper.
How Much Do Election Law Changes Affect Voter Turnout?
Justin Grimmer sits down with Factual Foundations of Policy host Tom Church to talk about the relationship between contested election policies and the outcomes of elections. Grimmer conveys the findings of political science literature showing how policies such as early voting, mail-in voting, photo ID requirements, and ballot harvesting do not have the strong effects on election outcomes that partisans often allege. Grimmer also shares methods that he has found to be effective in conveying the sometimes counterintuitive findings of his research to those skeptical of elections. Chief among those methods: a little math.
Click here to listen.
Work from Home, AI, and the Labor Market: What’s Next?
Steven J. Davis offers an analysis of the US labor market and a few predictions for the years to come. First, he assesses that work from home “is here to stay.” Examining emerging technologies, Davis argues, “Artificial Intelligence (AI) will not drive large-scale job losses over the next ten years.” Finally, Davis anticipates that job disruptions wrought by AI will be less harmful in their overall impact than past US experience with the loss of manufacturing jobs. These conclusions suggest that narratives of impending widespread hardship within the American labor force may be overstated.
Click here to read the paper.
The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan
On July 1, the Hoover Institution Press published The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan. This volume, edited by Distinguished Visiting Fellow Matthew Pottinger, brings together international military and security professionals to offer concrete steps that Taiwan and its partners should take to best defend the self-governing island nation. These steps range from the procurement of additional defensive weapons to the revitalization of Taiwan’s military culture. Additionally, The Boiling Moat examines how Australia, the European Union, the United States, and Japan should figure in Taiwan Strait contingency scenarios. Check out the book to see why it has been praised by officials from a former head of the CIA to the current president of Taiwan.
Click here to access digital copies of each chapter.
“The fundamental principle of the system—the rule of law, the finality of the results, the ability to challenge an election but then accept the results if the challenges fail—is being stood on its head,” said Ben Ginsberg to the New York Times in response to election board members in several states moving to block certification of primary election tallies.
HIGHLIGHTS
Israel and the Next US Administration
Peter Berkowitz, Tad and Dianne Taube Senior Fellow, contrasts two recent essays on the future of American foreign policy authored by leading strategists Ben Rhodes and Robert O’Brien. Berkowitz notes how these thinkers broadly represent the Democratic and Republican parties’ foreign policy visions for America over the coming years. At stake in the upcoming election, according to Berkowitz, is the degree to which the United States continues to pursue primacy in the international system and to advance its interests in line with the doctrine of “peace through strength.” Berkowitz also underscores how America’s decision in November will have diplomatic and security implications for Israel and the current situation in the Middle East.
Click here to read the article.
Quantum Computing Must Remain at the Forefront of National Security Efforts
Admiral Gary Roughead, the Robert and Marion Oster Distinguished Military Fellow, suggests that we are only in “the early phase of realizing quantum computing's promise” and that continued public funding remains imperative for preserving American dominance in the field over Russia and China. Roughead reminds us that quantum computing is a key enabler of advances in artificial intelligence and other frontier sciences, and thus it constitutes a critical national security technology in itself. Rather than bet on supposed “winner” companies and processes and rule out others early on, Roughead argues, the United States would be “wise to place expanded and equitable bets on those engaged in quantum computing R&D,” including smaller firms.
Click here to read the article.
Despite California Spending $24 Billion On It Since 2019, Homelessness Increased. What Happened?
Lee Ohanian digs into a California mystery: how the state could spend billions of dollars to fight homelessness, only for the number of homeless persons living in California to increase and for concerns about crime, drugs, and quality of life to continue to deepen. Ohanian makes concrete recommendations for the Golden State to begin to remedy the situation, emphasizing the need for objective and reliable data to track progress over time—something state authorities have largely failed to do. Ohanian also stresses how housing affordability will need to be addressed through increases in the supply of housing units in California, especially in coastal cities.
Click here to read the article.
Ukraine and American Prospects
Russell Berman argues that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine “represents nothing less than an assault on the established international order” and poses a direct challenge to America’s post‒WWII leadership through global institutions. Berman points out that Russian victory in Ukraine would be likely to drive Turkey further away from the NATO alliance, among other unsavory geopolitical effects. To prevent such outcomes, Berman argues that it “is vital for the proxy forces of the West in Ukraine to prevail, just as they must in Gaza.” Only a strong commitment to victory in these conflicts can uphold “American credibility as a force for security and stability across the world.”
Click here to read the article.
Upcoming Hoover Institution Events
- The Un-Presidented Speaker Series: Heath Hardage Lee, Thursday, August 8, 2024, 4:30 p.m. PT, Shultz Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
- Ideas Uncorked | State of the Race: Where America stands on the policy issues heading toward November, with Douglas Rivers, senior fellow, and David Brady, Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus, Hoover Institution DC Office, Tuesday, August 13, 2024, 5:30–7:00 p.m. ET
For more insights into key policy issues, visit
hoover.org/publications/issues-affecting-american-democracy-election-2024
