This excerpt from the inaugural issue of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR) focuses on space, one of ten key technologies studied in this new educational initiative. SETR, a project of the Hoover Institution and the Stanford School of Engineering, harnesses the expertise of Stanford University’s leading science and engineering faculty to create an easy-to-use reference tool for policy makers. Download the full report here and subscribe here for news and updates.
Space technology has proven its value to the national interest. Among the key points to consider:
- Space technologies are increasingly critical to everyday life (e.g., GPS navigation, banking, missile defense, Internet access, remote sensing).
- Space is a finite planetary resource. Dramatic increases in satellites, debris, and competition are threatening access to this global commons.
- Private sector actors play a critical and growing role in many aspects of space-based activities (e.g., launch, vehicles, and communications) because they offer better, cheaper, and rapidly deployable capabilities.
Some of the most important applications of space include:
Navigation. This includes, more generally, position, navigation, and timing services around the world and in space. GPS satellites (and those of other nations as well) help people know where they are and how fast and in which direction they are going, whether they are on land, on the ocean surface, in the air, or in space. Less well known is the timing information that GPS provides—timing accurate to the nanosecond is available anywhere in the world. This is a key tool for the financial sector, electric power grid, and transportation.
Communications. Although the vast bulk of international and long-haul communications traffic is still routed through land lines (mostly fiber optic), satellites provide voice and data communications as well as Internet access in otherwise inaccessible places around the world, and of course, for mobile phone users in cars, planes, and ships. Recent innovations in space-based communications technology include the development of optical communication systems—which use light to carry data and offer higher bandwidth and security. These include laser communications both space-to-ground and space-to-space, which hold a particularly high value for government and military.
Remote sensing. Satellites gather information about a geographical area, the environment, or an object by detecting and measuring energy that may be reflected or emitted by the entity being sensed. Space-based remote sensing is used to observe and surveil large forest fires, weather formation, the evolution of cloud cover, erupting volcanoes, dust storms, changes in the geography of a city or in farmland or forests (e.g., as the result of fires, earthquakes, or flooding), changes in terrain such as glacier movement or landslides, and surface topography. Space-based remote sensing can scan large areas of the Earth rapidly, though at some cost in resolution. Remote sensing also varies by revisit rate—revisiting on the order of hours or days is needed for rapidly unfolding phenomena such as the progression of a hurricane, while applications such as glacier monitoring require much less frequent measurements.
Scientific research. Space-based telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, play an important role in astronomy and cosmology. They help in studying the earliest stars and understanding the creation of the first galaxies, and offer in-depth insights into the atmospheres of planets that might support life.
Space transportation. The space transportation industry is becoming increasingly privatized and provides launch services for parties wanting to orbit satellites and transport services to in-orbit space stations. The costs of placing payloads into low earth orbit have fallen from a high of $65,000 per kilogram to $1,500 per kilogram in 2021, largely driven by the advent of multiple launch capability of a single rocket—as many as 100 to 150 at a time—coupled with reusable rocket launch vehicles.
National security. Space-based satellites scan the Earth looking for launches of ballistic missiles that may be aimed at the United States or its allies, for nuclear weapons explosions on the surface anywhere in the world, and for radio traffic and radar signals from other countries. Of course, all these applications—navigation, communications, and remote sensing—are valuable in a military context.
There is an increasing trend toward privatization across most space technologies as the space sector moves away from legacy space technologies owned by the government or large contractors. These legacy systems are characterized by large, expensive spacecraft with long development timelines. Today, a “NewSpace” economy is turning to private companies, creating a global space environment in which systems and services are more accessible and less expensive—and available to all.
The future of space
Applications of space technology are likely to include:
Manufacturing. For certain types of manufacturing such as specialized pharmaceuticals, optics and semiconductors, space offers two major advantages over terrestrial manufacturing. Because the vacuum of space is very clean, minimizing contamination is much easier. Further, the microgravity environment of space means that the effects of gravity on fabrication can be minimized, enabling more perfect crystals and more perfect shapes to be fabricated, to give examples.
Mining. The moon and asteroids may well have vast storehouses of useful minerals that are hard to find or extract on Earth (e.g., rare-earth elements). Future space mining operations may bring some of these to Earth or use them for further human expansion in the solar system.
Power generation. It is well known that the sun’s radiation on Earth can generate electricity through solar cells. But above the Earth’s atmosphere in certain orbits, the sun never stops shining on spacecraft; indeed, it shines more brightly because it is not attenuated by the Earth’s atmosphere or by weather. It may be economically feasible in the future to capture such energy and beam it to Earth for sustainable electrical generation.
National security. Although the Outer Space Treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in space, there are no restrictions on other military uses of space, including the placement of conventional weapons. Furthermore, space-based capabilities are integral to supporting modern warfighters; accordingly, they will be the targets of foreign counterspace threats. Rapid launch capabilities to facilitate fast replacement of satellites rendered inoperative during times of war or conflict will increase the resiliency of critical national space assets.
In-space logistics, servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM). Dominance, security, and sustainability in space require infrastructure that supports cheap, quick, reliable access and the ISAM capabilities to approach, inspect, assess damage to, repair, prolong the lifetime of, retire, or remove space assets without jeopardizing the space environment. Spacecraft autonomy, in combination with rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD), is a critical technology for ISAM. For example, orbital tugs, in-orbit fuel depots, or orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs) are needed for space logistics and to enable a circular space economy.
Challenges of innovation and implementation
Public entities, driven by the need for public accountability, have become more risk-averse, often showing reluctance to embrace innovation unless traditional methods are unviable. In contrast, private companies pursue innovation when it provides economic viability and a competitive edge via intellectual property. Collaborative efforts between academia and industry are pivotal for technology commercialization and real-world demonstrations of advancements co-developed by industry and academic partners.
The emergence of low-cost, high-quality information from space-based assets—increasingly launched and operated by private companies—is also an important driver of open-source intelligence (OSI) that data analysts can buy on the open market. OSI threatens to upend traditional intelligence gathering as closely held information and analysis becomes more readily available.
Space governance has developed at the same rapid pace as the rest of the industry. Within the United States, the growth of the satellite sector far outpaces the capabilities of the current licensing process. The system relies heavily on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for licensing the operation of launch and re-entry vehicles and for the use of launch sites, and on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for communications, and the demand for space-based communications is growing rapidly.
Despite their importance, space assets today are not designated by the United States as critical infrastructure. Legislation has been proposed to make this designation, but as of this writing the prospects of passage are unknown.
An important grand challenge for the future of spaceflight is the preservation of space as a global resource. The near-Earth space environment is increasingly crowded, driven by lower launch costs and satellite miniaturization.
In addition, increasing volumes of space traffic may lead to communications interference. Coordination of space activities such as orbit planning will be increasingly difficult to manage with the increase of space actors—more nations and private companies. Large satellite constellations may fill up useful orbits in ways that prevent others from using those orbits.
International disputes and tensions threaten the peaceful operation of satellites, space stations, and other space activities. The Outer Space Treaty was signed in 1967, at a time when the potential for the exploitation of space resources for both civilian and military purposes was not nearly as apparent as it is today.
The proliferation of anti-satellite weapons is a major concern. To date, four nations have tested weapons capable of destroying or interfering with satellites in space: China, Russia, India, and the United States. Nations deploy anti-satellite capabilities because the space capabilities of adversaries, left unchecked, provide those adversaries with military advantages. These nations can be expected to take measures to defend their own space assets while trying to degrade and deny the space assets of adversaries.
A continuing lack of governance and agreed-upon international policy raise the possibility of direct conflict in space.
