As circumstance would have it, the first attempt at drafting this column came to a crashing halt when a televised Sunday afternoon matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees, followed by three-plus hours of Stanford postseason baseball, proved to be too much of a distraction.
Watching the two professional teams was the reminder of a storied rivalry. For those baseball fans who weren’t alive when the two franchises were cross-borough blood rivals back in the Eisenhower era, this somewhat later showdown dates back to the late 1970s and some memorable World Series clashes (detailed further in this outstanding ESPN documentary).
And it was a reminder for yours truly to get back to work, as one of the cornerstones of those fabled Dodgers teams from the ’70s was back in the news last week as a possible California Senate contender in 2024.
That would the former first baseman Steve Garvey, whose appearance on the Republican side of next year’s Senate contest could prove to be something of a curveball. (Garvey’s not an actual candidate, but a California political strategist stoked the media speculation with this text message to a reporter: “He’s concerned about the same issues facing all Californians, out of control cost-of-living and high taxes, rising crime and lack of opportunities.”)
Is Garvey a serious Senate contender? The short answer is no—not in a state where Democrats enjoy a two-to-one advantage in voter registration. That is, if the standard of success is victory in the November 2024 general election. In California, a Republican hasn’t won a November Senate race since 1988 (coincidentally, also a good year to be a Dodgers enthusiast) The closest a GOP hopeful has come since then: amid 1994’s nationwide landslide for Republicans, Michael Huffington finishing only two points behind Dianne Feinstein, a difference of 162,000 votes.
But what Garvey can do is scramble the mathematics of next spring’s Senate primary: under California law, the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of politician.
Let’s assume Garvey finds adequate financing for a Senate primary run. Here, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned tweet teasing Garvey’s candidacy came from the executive director of New Majority, an influential business-minded donor group.
Let’s also assume that Garvey enjoys something akin to star power—granted, diminished wattage given that he retired from professional baseball in 1987. Still, the fact that Garvey played for both the Dodgers and the San Diego Padres during a storied career (he led both franchises to World Series appearances) means he might be able to connect with nostalgic, older voters across Southern California.
How much of a nostalgic time machine are we talking? 2024 marks the 50th anniversary of Garvey being named the National League’s most valuable player (as a Dodger) and the 40th anniversary of this Garvey walk-off homerun that’s still one of brighter moments in the history of San Diego baseball.
Let’s make yet another assumption: prior to the recent campaign whispers, Garvey has been so far removed from the public spotlight that many California voters aren’t familiar with his checkered past.
Whereas Garvey fostered a squeaky-clean image during his playing days (here’s a Geritol ad featuring Garvey and his first wife), his post-baseball reputation quickly unraveled after news reports that, over the course of just eight months, Garvey had affairs with three women at once, impregnating two and eventually marrying a fourth (“Some people have a midlife crisis, Garvey quipped. “I had a midlife disaster”). Which proved to be a field day both for attorneys and wags who write bumper stickers (“I got to first base with Steve Garvey” . . . “Honk if you’re carrying Steve Garvey’s baby”).
Another warning sign for conservative voters per this National Review assessment of Garvey’s feasibility: “The bad news: Garvey is ideologically vague and a rookie politician—both characteristics that he has in common with some of the most underachieving recent Republican celebrity candidates such as Herschel Walker and Dr. Mehmet Oz.”
An example of a contentious issue where Garvey will have to choose sides: the recent flap over the Dodgers’ front office inviting and then disinviting the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence to this month’s Pride Night at Dodger Stadium, only to reverse course and ask the queer and trans “nuns” to join the festivities. Where does Garvey stand as both a former Dodger and a practicing Catholic?
Here’s how I see Garvey as a Senate hopeful: borrowing a baseball term, he’s potentially a “five-tool player” in that his candidacy would include the following traits: better name recognition than most first-time statewide candidates; access to California’s GOP donor community; more media attention than most Republicans hopefuls (granted, it’s a double-edged sword, as reporters will want to revisit the sex scandal); a policy vagueness that perhaps allows more flexibility than most Republicans who run hard to the right are given; and party loyalists hungry for something different after decades of Senate failure.
All of which raises this question: As far as California Republicans and the dynamics of this particular Senate race are concerned, is competition a good thing for the GOP?
Here’s what the political math tells us: given its decided minority status within California’s pool of voters, the last thing the state GOP needs is multiple candidates subdividing an already undersized slice of the electoral pie. In California’s 2022 Senate primary, for example, five Republicans accounted for 33.3% of the overall vote. Leading that quintet: Mark Meuser, an attorney and serial candidate whose 14% performance was good enough to get him into the general election (Democrat Alex Padilla led the way with 54%).
But a look back at California’s 2016 Senate primary shows a different set of results for California’s GOP: 14 Republicans accounted for 28.5% of the primary total, with the top vote-getter collecting only 7.8%—a far cry from the two Democrats who moved on to the November election (Kamala Harris receiving 39.9% and Loretta Sanchez 18.9%).
Could another scenario play out in March 2024? With two higher-profile Democrats (Harris was the state attorney general and Sanchez a member of Congress at the time of the vote) dominating the field? At present, that wouldn’t be the case—not if this late-May UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll is to believed). It shows a Republican, attorney Eric Early, in the lead with 19%. After that: the three Democratic members of Congress who so far have dominated the media coverage of the race: Katie Porter (17%), Adam Schiff (14%), and Barbara Lee (9%).
How to read those numbers: if Early can stay at that level—or if Garvey enters the race and rises to the same height by chipping away at Early’s support and tapping into the 42% of the poll’s respondents who are either undecided or considering “someone else”—then a Republican stands a good chance of making the November runoff (another “X factor” affecting California’s March primary: the prospects of a raucous Republican presidential contest turning out more GOP voters than a sleepier Democratic presidential race among that party’s voters).
Will that mean a Republican Senate victory in November? Probably not—in 2022, Mark Meuser failed to clear 39% in the general election. On the other hand, having Republican candidates on that ballot in both the Senate and gubernatorial contests might have helped the GOP down the ticket, especially in a handful of competitive congressional districts that proved to be pivotal in the GOP regaining control of the lower chamber of Congress.
Though the March primary is now nine months away, a potential Steve Garvey contest isn’t the only plot twist in California’s Senate race. There’s also a question of fragmentation among the three Democratic House members looking to replace Dianne Feinstein—Schiff voting in favor of the debt ceiling increase, with Porter and Lee voting against.
Unlike the Dodgers and Yankees of yore, these three Democrats aren’t blood rivals. In fact, this analysis by FiveThirtyEight shows party conformity—Schiff voting with the Biden White House position 100% of the time, followed closely by Lee (99.1%) and Porter (98.2%).
But what if the summer and fall produce a repeat of the debt-ceiling negotiations, with President Biden taking stances that are more pragmatic than they are progressive? Would the progressive stalwart Barbara Lee, third among Democrats in that recent Berkeley poll and needing to jump-start her campaign, consider an act of political heresy—such as endorsing Robert Kennedy Jr. instead of Biden—in hopes of appealing to dispirited California Democrats (keeping in mind that Governor Gavin Newsom has mastered the art of sending ideologically mixed signals to Democratic activists)?
Maybe Steve Garvey’s transition to politics isn’t all that improbable. In politics just as in baseball, it’s all about playing hardball.
