A Critical Test For American-Led NATO

The Ukraine war has strengthened NATO, both in terms of political support (a clear majority of Europeans in major polls favors support for Ukraine’s defense) and in new prospective members, notably Finland and Sweden. It has also forced Europe to diversify its energy sources away from Russia and thereby reduce Russia’s strategic leverage. Whether the display of NATO solidarity in response to Russia’s invasion has positive or negative consequences depends on the outcome of the conflict. A prolonged stalemate that failed to eject Russian forces from Ukraine’s borders would constitute a political victory for Russia, discredit American leadership in NATO, and encourage populist, anti-Atlanticist political parties in Europe.