Welcome to the Hoover Institution’s monthly briefing on national security. This month we are looking at a lesson from European history that reflects on Israel’s situation today; a response to Chinese dominance in trade and investment; a reminder to not ignore military history, a new opportunity for Haiti; America’s influence both near and far; and a plan to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. Finally, from Hoover Library & Archives we have a private collection on papers of the Third Reich.
FEATURED ANALYSIS
The Link Between Lord Palmerston and Benjamin Netanyahu
Drawing on major events in European history for comparison—from revolutions to moments of statecraft that led to the establishment of permanent borders and alliances—Millbank Family Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson and coauthor Jay Mens highlight and analyze the shifts that have occurred in the Middle East over the last century. The fluctuating role of the United States remains the deciding factor in much of the region’s quest for stability. As the authors assert, “History suggests that coalitions against revolutionary states require not just military victories but sustained political and economic pressure. Without American convening power, the risk grows that the Middle East’s version of Treaty of Chaumont—the framework for a collective peace consummated at Vienna in 1814—will remain elusive.” The authors’ comparison of Netanyahu to Bismarck underscores the challenges facing Israel in an environment even less stable than that the German chancellor faced. Not only is Netanyahu “attempting to reshape the regional balance of power,” but he is also shouldering the weight of that transformation. Ultimately, the authors conclude, “There is simply no substitute . . . for American power in the region,” particularly if it is to avoid the conflagrations that engulfed Europe in the mid-17th and 20th centuries.
China Needs to Know Its Limits
In their piece, Hargrove Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy and coauthor Melanie Hart look at the progress and challenges for the US in taking on China’s growing dominance in world trade and investment. They assert that “Beijing used industrial policy, low-cost labor, intellectual property theft, and trade and investment barriers to . . . push Chinese firms to the center of global value chains.” In an effort to reshape those supply chains, Trump—and Biden after him through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act—have worked to enhance domestic semiconductor manufacturing. China’s continued near-monopoly as a source of highly sought minerals led to the creation of the Minerals Security Partnership, which includes the EU and 14 other countries, to combat overdependence on China. As Economy and Hart highlight, Greenland, site of the world’s largest rare-earth deposits, has recently seen a US subsidiary win out over China in controlling shares of a local mine. Initiatives begun under both Trump and Biden have supported projects that “reduce China’s stranglehold on critical minerals” by bolstering investment possibilities when competing with China’s state coffers. More is needed, however, from US policy. Trade is the most potent weapon in its arsenal, and multilateral, high-standard trade deals are the most effective means. “Trump has the opportunity to put forward a bold economic policy to enlarge and protect the American economy,” and tariffs will not realize these objectives.
Know Your Military History
Fouad and Michelle Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster highlights the growing erosion of strategic competence on the battlefield, evidenced in conflicts from Vietnam to Iraq. The increased reliance on cutting-edge technology and the dominance of social science–based theories have eclipsed our focus on the actions of the real world. Most importantly, the author asserts, these theories lead to a sense of “near certainty” in future war that can produce a “dangerous fallacy.” From deep personal experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, McMaster argues that the “emerging theories of future war . . . neglect continuities in the nature of war,” and that neglect studying military history “has contributed to strategic setbacks and failures.” He adds, “New technologies may change tactics,” but the real nature of war “can only be understood by the study of history and the classical art of integrating all elements of power and connecting military means to strategic ends.”
Hope Springs Eternal for Haiti
In his essay, Hoover Fellow Joseph Ledford brings the focus to the Caribbean and the impending crisis of a failed state in Haiti. “The collapse of Haiti would be the death rattle for greater Caribbean security,” and it demands immediate action. Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, the country has collapsed into chaos, with gangs preventing any formal government from functioning and all necessities in disrepair. The Biden administration pledged $300 million to support a security mission but refused to commit US forces. The largely Kenyan police force that is presently deployed is ineffectual against the well-armed and organized gangs. Still, the author sees hope in the appointment of Marco Rubio to head the State Department, calling him someone who acknowledges “disastrous consequences for the region if Haiti slides further into chaos.” With UN action blocked by Russia and China, only US intervention can bring a resolution to the crisis.
The Whole Playing Field, not just Home Plate
In his essay, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Matt Pottinger writes that while Trump has brought focus back on America’s own neighborhood, he also needs to keep his eye on traditional foreign policy concerns in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia where he had held the line during his first presidency. Undue retrenchment in the Western Hemisphere is not the answer to American security, he writes. “The truth is that the U.S. must retain the capability, and resolve, to influence events in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East because they affect the livelihoods of ordinary Americans.” Trump’s success during his first term at checking dictators’ desire for greater expansion can be employed again and would send the message “that America is a resident power on both sides of the Atlantic and the Pacific, and that we aren’t going anywhere.”
Ukraine’s Reconstruction on Russia’s Dime
In their op-ed, Niall Ferguson and coauthor Chris Miller make the case for tapping Russian foreign-exchange assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and armament. The cost thus far to Ukraine from Russian aggression tops $600 billion, a sum neither the US nor the EU is prepared to provide. “The obvious solution is to use the frozen Russian assets,” the authors assert. The time is right due to a number of factors, from the return of President Trump to the changed nature of the assets in question, presenting the new administration with a “unique opportunity.”
HISTORY IN FOCUS
The Gerd Heidemann collection, now open for research at the Hoover Institution Library & Archives, is the most important private collection on the Third Reich acquired by a university archive. It includes tens of thousands of original documents drawn mainly from the personal entourage of Adolf Hitler and the SS leadership. A historically significant portion of the collection consists of audio interviews with former high-ranking Nazi Party officials and their associates from the 1970s and 1980s. Among them are Bruno Streckenbach, head of the administration and the personnel department of the Reich Security Main Office, who was responsible for thousands of murders committed by Nazi mobile killing squads; and Klaus Barbie, an SS officer and head of the Gestapo in Lyon, who was responsible for the implementation of the Holocaust in France. Heidemann’s interviews reveal the perpetrators of the Holocaust unapologetically taking responsibility for their monstrous crimes. Stay tuned for more information about this collection acquisition and Save-the-Date for a related event on March 4, 2025 from 4:00 – 6:00 PM PT in Stauffer Auditorium at Stanford University.
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