ABOUT THE CONFERENCE
The Macroeconomic Modelling and Model Comparison Network is a new research network under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London and is a part of the new Macroeconomic Model Comparison Initiative (MMCI) by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) at Goethe University Frankfurt. The MMCI initiative is supported financially by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
Quantitative macroeconomic models play an important role in informing policy makers about the consequences of monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential policies. MMCN aims to make progress in this area by promoting collaboration among interested researchers in academia and policy institutions. It hopes to provide a forum for presenting new models and model comparisons, as well as the solution and estimation methods underlying them, thereby enhancing opportunities for building on the work of others.
The organizers are very grateful for the financial support of the conference by the Hoover Institution, the Foundation for Monetary and Financial Stability and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
ORGANIZERS
Michael Binder (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt)
John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution)
Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR)
THURSDAY, JUNE 7
| Time | Content | Presenters | DISCUSSANTs |
|---|---|---|---|
|
08:00 – 08:50 |
Registration and Coffee |
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|
08:50 – 09:00 |
Welcome |
Thomas W. Gilligan, Tad and Dianne Taube Director, Hoover Institution |
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|
09:00 – 09:40 |
Keynote Speech Chair: John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) |
Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago, Comparative Valuation Dynamics in Models with Financing Restrictions |
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|
09:40 – 10:40 |
Parallel Session I Model Estimation and Shocks Chair: Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR) DSGE Models and Financial Frictions Chair: Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt |
How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap (Paper) Monetary Policy Spillovers, Global Commodity Prices and Cooperation (jointly with A. Filardo, M. Lombardi, C. Montoro) (Paper) DSGE Models with Financial Frictions: Does Frequency Matter? (jointly with C. Foroni, M. Macellino) (Paper) Financial Crises, Recoveries and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from a Data-Rich DSGE Model (Paper) |
Christopher Tonetti (Stanford University) Hashmat Khan (Carleton University) Gregor Boehl (Goethe University Frankfurt) Jonathan Swarbrick (Bank of Canada) |
|
10:40 – 11:00 |
Coffee Break |
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|
11:00 – 12:30 |
Parallel Session II Financial Crisis and Recession Chair: Arvind Krishnamurthy (Stanford University) Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Chair: John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) |
Household Leverage and the Recession (jointly with V. Midrigan, T. Philippon) (Paper) Financial Repression in General Equilibrium (jointly with A. Kriwoluzky, A. Scheer) (Paper) Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs and Financial Friction (jointly with P. Gelain, M. Sanjani) (Paper) Employment, Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy (jointly with J. Zhao) (Paper) (Appendix) Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s) (Paper) Monetary Policy Rules and PID Control (Paper) |
Elena Pastorino (Stanford University) Arvind Krishnamurthy (Stanford University) Jorge Abad (CEMFI) Chad Jones (Stanford University) Felix Strobel (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt) Sebastian Guarda (Central Bank of Chile) |
|
12:30 – 13:30 |
Lunch |
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|
13:30 – 15:00 |
Plenary Session I: Nonlinearity and Recession Chair: Joshua D. Rauh (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) |
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices (jointly with J. Williams) (Paper) Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle (jointly with J. Lindé) (Paper) Observational Equivalence and a Simple Fix for Zero Bound Puzzles |
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|
15:00 – 16:30 |
Poster Session I |
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession (Paper) MMCI and Macroeconomic Model Database 2.3 The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the U.S. Business Cycle (jointly with J. Brault) (Paper) Fiscal Stabilization and the Credibility of the U.S. Budget Sequestration Spending Authority (jointly with R. Hu) (Paper) Business Cycles in Space (jointly with T. Holden) (Paper) Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel (Paper) Open Source Policy Simulation: Tax-Calculator, B-Tax, BRC, TaxData, C-TAM MFM Executive Committee Projects, Lars Peter Hansen (University of Chicago) |
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16:30 – 18:00 |
Parallel Session III Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Chair: Pablo Kurlat (Stanford University) Heterogeneous Agents and Bounded Rationality Chair: Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley) |
Risky Lending, Bank Leverage and Unconventional Monetary Policy (Paper) Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit (jointly with D. Zeke) (Paper) Some Simple Bitcoin Economics (jointly with H. Uhlig) (Paper) Heterogeneous Information, Diverse Higher-Order Beliefs and Business Cycles: Propagation Mechanisms and Empirical Performance (jointly with M. Farkas, V. Wieland) (Paper) Re-use of Collateral: Leverage, Volatility, and Welfare (Paper) Optimal Monetary Policy under Bounded Rationality (jointly with L. Bounader) (Paper) (Presentation) |
David Laszlo Zeke (University of Southern California) Alexander Clymo (University of Essex) Pablo Kurlat (Stanford University) Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley) Hanno Lustig (Stanford University) Mátyás Farkas (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt) |
|
18:15 – 20:30 |
Dinner |
John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) |
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FRIDAY, JUNE 8
| Time | Content | Presenters/panelists | moderator |
|---|---|---|---|
|
08:00 – 08:30 |
Coffee |
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|
08:30 – 10:00 |
Plenary Session II: Macroeconomic Models and Policy Chair: Michael Binder (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt)
|
Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve Towards a New Monetary Theory of Exchange Rate Determination (jointly with A. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Sokol, G. Thwaites) (Paper) On the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (jointly with P. Lieberknecht) |
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| 10:00 – 10:30 |
Coffee Break |
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|
10:30 – 12:00 |
Parallel Session IV R-Star, Zero Bound and Monetary Policy Chair: Carlos Zarazaga (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) Structural and Tax Policy in Macro Models Chair: Grace Weishi Gu (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
Taylor-Rule Consistent Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest (jointly with F. Mazelis) Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule (Paper) U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound (jointly with F. Strobel) Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes (jointly with J.W. Lee, S. Bhattarai, C. Yang) (Paper) Growth Effects of Structural Reforms and Their Impact on the Functional Income Distribution (jointly with J. Varga, W. Roeger, L. Vogel) (Paper) Cohesion Policy and Inequality Dynamics: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agents Macroeconomic Model (jointly with P. Harting, M. Neugart) (Paper) |
Jae Won Lee (University of Virginia) Yevgeniy Teryoshin (Stanford University) Carlos Zarazaga (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) Paul Luk (Hong Kong Baptist University) Philipp Lieberknecht (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt) Grace Weishi Gu (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
|
12:00 – 13:00 |
Lunch |
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|
13:00 – 14:00 |
Parallel Session V Banks, Leverage and Crises Chair: Maik Wolters (University of Jena) Numerical Methods, Macro Models and Climate Change Chair: Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR) |
Bank Capital in the Short and in the Long Run (jointly with C. Mendicino, J. Suarez, D. Supera) (Paper) Ambiguous Leverage Cycles (jointly with M. Bassanin, V. Patella) (Paper) Numerical Dynamic Programming with Verification and Uncertainty Quantification: An Application to Climate Policy (jointly with Y. Cai) (Paper) To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy (jointly with E. Baldwin, K. Kuralbayeva) (Paper) |
Tim Robinson (The University of Melbourne) Nuno Paixao (Bank of Canada) Eric Aldrich (University of California, Santa Cruz) Andreas Tryphonides (Humboldt University Berlin) |
|
14:00 – 15:30 |
Poster Session II |
Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to Misspecification (Paper) Firm Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound Breaking the Feedback Loop: Macroprudential Regulation of Banks' Sovereign Exposures (Paper) Macroprudential Policies and Credit Creation (jointly with S. Elias) (Paper) Dynamics of Secured and Unsecured Debt Over the Business Cycle (jointly with T. Zheng) (Paper) Modelling Occassionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching (jointly with A. Binning) (Paper) Xmas: An Extended Model for Analysis and Simulation (jointly with B. García, M. Kirchner, R. Tranamil) (Paper) MMCI and Macroeconomic Model Database 2.3 MFM Executive Committee Projects, Lars Peter Hansen (University of Chicago) |
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|
15:30 – 17:00 |
Plenary Session III: Macroeconomic Models and Estimation Chair: John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) |
DSGE Forecast of the Lost Recovery (jointly with M. Cai, M. Giannoni, A. Gupta, P. Li, E. Moszkowski) (Paper) Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis (jointly with P. Jacquinot, N. Papadopoulou) (Paper) Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach (jointly with G. Benigno, A. Foerster, A. Rebucci) (Paper) |
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|
17:00 |
Concluding Remarks |
Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR) |
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If you have any questions about the event, contact Marie-Christine Slakey at slakey@stanford.edu.
