The Hoover Institution hosts the Chinese Economy in the Long Run on March 6-7, 2025.
How did China go from being the wealthiest and most innovative society in the world circa 1000 to economic decline 500 years later? How did it grow fast enough to achieve middle-income status during the late 20th century? Is China poised to break into the ranks of high-income countries at present? The Working Group on Long-Run Prosperity is convening a distinguished group of economists, historians, and political scientists from around the world to address questions about China’s economic growth and stagnation over the past 1000 years.
| Thursday, March 6th | ||
|---|---|---|
| Time | Content | Presenters |
|
8:30 AM |
Breakfast |
-- |
|
9:00 AM |
Welcome |
Stephen Haber, Hoover Institution & Stanford University |
|
9:15 AM |
Traditional Chinese Lending Markets Paper: "Loans and Lenders: Specialization, Competition, and Integration in Late Imperial and Republican-Era Lending Markets” by Matthew Lowenstei |
Presenter: Matthew Lowenstein, Hoover Institution Discussant: Thomas Sargent, Hoover Institution & NYU Discussant: Hoyt Bleakley, Hoover Institution & University of Michigan Chair: Amit Seru, Hoover Institution & Stanford University |
| 10:30 AM |
Break |
-- |
| 11:00 AM |
The Rise and Fall of Early Chinese Paper Money Paper: “The Rise and Demise of Paper Money in Imperial China, 1000-1500: Fiscal Innovation, Market Growth, and Monetary Transitions” by Richard Von Glahn |
Presenter: Richard Von Glahn, UCLA Discussant: Bill Summerhill, Hoover Institution & UCLA Discussant: Meng Zhang, Vanderbilt University Chair: Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Caltech |
| 12:15 PM |
Lunch |
-- |
| 1:15 PM |
The World's First Monetary Policy: Paper Money under the Mongols Paper: “The Rise and Fall of Paper Money in Yuan China, 1260-1368” by Hanhui Guan, Nuno Palma, and Meng Wu |
Presenter: Meng Wu, University of Manchester Discussant: Ross Levine, Hoover Institution Discussant: Matthew Sommer, Stanford University Chair: Valerie Ramey, Hoover Institution |
| 2:30 PM |
Break |
-- |
| 3:00 PM |
State Formation and Warfare from Ancient China to Present Paper: “States and Wars: China's Long March Towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC - 1911 AD” by Shuo Chen and Debin Ma |
Presenter: Debin Ma, University of Oxford Discussant: Mark Dincecco, University of Michigan Discussant: Ian Morris, Stanford University Chair: Stephen Haber, Hoover Institution & Stanford University |
| 4:15 PM |
Conclusion of March 6th program |
-- |
| 6:00 PM |
Dinner |
-- |
| Friday, March 7th | ||
|---|---|---|
| Time | Content | Presenters |
|
8:30 AM |
Breakfast |
-- |
|
9:00 AM |
The Origins of China’s Totalitarianism Paper: “Institutional Genes: The Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism” by Xu Chenggang |
Presenter: Xu Chenggang, Stanford University Discussant: Frank Dikotter, Hoover Institution Discussant: Dorothy Kronick, UC Berkeley Chair: Victor Shih, UC San Diego |
| 10:15 AM |
Break |
-- |
| 10:45 AM |
Crony Capitalism in Modern China Paper: “Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics” by Chong-en Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Song |
Presenter: Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago Discussant: Zhiguo He, Stanford University Discussant: Jia Nan, University of Southern California Chair: Paola Sapienza, Hoover Institution |
| 12:00 PM |
Closing Remarks |
Amit Seru, Hoover Institution & Stanford University |
| 12:05 PM |
Lunch / Conclusion of conference |
-- |
